auction market theory | https://xitter.cf/t.co/ekkusECcbq
Joined January 2016
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I believe the Ethereum bottom is likely in.
My reasoning isn’t based on one indicator it’s the confluence of multiple factors:
• Chris Lori’s 13 Characteristics of a Price Swing are largely complete.
• June printed what I believe is the Point of Release (PoR).
• Market structure is beginning to shift in favour of the bulls.
• The June low also aligns with historical seasonality.
During the last mid-term election year (2022), #Ethereum also bottomed in June before beginning its next major trend higher. This year we’ve once again printed a significant low in June, adding another layer of confluence.
Nothing is guaranteed, but when structure, psychology and historical timing align, it’s something I pay close attention to.
Time will tell. 👀 $eth #eth
Looking to buy the dips on altcoins amid the current market volatility?
Be sure to check out my latest YouTube video, where I break down buy targets and invalidation levels for 10 of the strongest-performing altcoins recently.
Preparation is key. Know your levels, manage your risk, and avoid chasing price.
m.youtube.com/watch?v=dLu36s…
$BTC
Did we really expect the start of this bull cycle to be a straightforward, one-way move to the upside?
I’m sharing a fractal from the previous cycle, highlighting the period when Bitcoin first closed above the 50-week MA following the bear market. As you can see, price didn’t immediately take off. Instead, we entered an extended period of consolidation before the eventual breakout.
The similarities with current price action are hard to ignore.
Don’t let bearish sentiment cloud your judgement or abandon your thesis simply because price is pulling back. Volatility, uncertainty and extended periods of consolidation are all part of the process.
This is exactly the type of price action I’ve been discussing over the past couple of months, preparing you for what I believed was a realistic scenario to play out.
Stay objective, stick to your plan, and remember that a fractal is a reference point, not a guarantee of what comes next.
I think we’re reaching a point where downside expectations are becoming increasingly overcrowded. Those waiting for the perfect entry at $76K BTC or sub-$2K ETH may find themselves caught off guard if the market reverses before reaching those levels.
Personally, I’m at the stage where I’m no longer willing to let short-term market manipulation and volatility shake me out of a thesis I still believe in, only to watch it play out as anticipated.
I’m comfortable holding my current positions and gradually adding to them as price moves lower, provided the broader thesis remains intact. I don’t need to catch the exact bottom; I want to build exposure at favourable levels without allowing market noise to dictate my decisions.
$VIRTUAL at a very interesting level here on the daily.
Monitoring the overall market situation closely and looking at adding more around here.
$ALTS
I’d like to see #TOTAL3 find support and bounce from these EMA bands. This is a critical support zone, and holding these levels is essential to preserving the current bullish market structure.
A sustained loss of this support would weaken the bullish outlook, so this is a key area to monitor closely.
$ETH
I won’t sugarcoat it: Ethereum doesn’t look good after losing its range low. The only hope now is that the daily 200-day moving average, currently around $2,156, provides support and that ETH quickly reclaims $2,400.
Otherwise, the possibility of trading toward the range lows around $1,950 becomes increasingly likely.
$ETH
We really need to see buyers step in here, as a loss of this level could get ugly. As highlighted on the chart, there is significant market inefficiency below $2,360 that could leave price vulnerable to further downside.
A break of this support could open the door to a move back towards $1.9K.
Under normal circumstances, I would consider a long entry here with tight invalidation, using lower-timeframe acceptance below support as my exit trigger. However, given that it is Sunday, I am less inclined to take the trade.
For now, $2,360 is the key level to watch.
$BTC
I’ve been highlighting this scenario for some time, and we’re now seeing it play out.
I warned that a daily close below $81.2K would open the door to a move back into the previous range, where significant market inefficiencies remain below.
With that level now lost, the $76K–$77K region remains my key downside target, a scenario I’ve been discussing for some time, provided $81.2K failed to hold.
Those who followed the analysis and prepared for this possibility should now be in a much stronger position to navigate the market, rather than reacting emotionally after the move has already begun.
On a serious note, yesterday’s dump on $BTC shouldn’t have caught as many people off guard as it did.
We’re still ranging, and volatility within a range is to be expected. The key is to remain focused on the levels that matter rather than reacting emotionally to every move.
The real concern would be losing 81.2K and finding acceptance back inside the previous range. That would open the door to a move towards the range lows around 76.5K.
Until then, patience and level-to-level trading remain key.
$BTC
We’ve finally seen a daily close below the range lows. To prevent further confirmation of this breakdown, bulls need to reclaim $81.2K and establish acceptance back above this level.
As I’ve been highlighting for some time, sustained acceptance below $81.2K opens the door to a move into the previous range, with $76.5K becoming a realistic downside target.
However, provided we remain above the weekly 50 MA, I believe this period of volatility could present some excellent opportunities for those who remain patient and disciplined.
Have a great weekend.
$BTC
Bulls continue to defend daily closes above $81.2K, keeping price within the current range. A loss of this level would open the door to a move back into the previous range, where significant market inefficiencies remain below.
As long as we continue to hold this level, I’m comfortable maintaining my current spot positions while actively looking for new opportunities. However, a confirmed loss of $81.2K would be the point where I’d begin to adopt a more cautious approach.
The higher-timeframe structure still looks constructive and bullish, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore short-term price action. The last thing we want is to get chopped up in the range or end up buying local tops before the next move develops.
$BTC
Bulls continue to defend daily closes above $81.2K, keeping price within the current range. A loss of this level would open the door to a move back into the previous range, where significant market inefficiencies remain below.
As long as we continue to hold this level, I’m comfortable maintaining my current spot positions while actively looking for new opportunities. However, a confirmed loss of $81.2K would be the point where I’d begin to adopt a more cautious approach.
The higher-timeframe structure still looks constructive and bullish, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore short-term price action. The last thing we want is to get chopped up in the range or end up buying local tops before the next move develops.
Privacy is clearly an increasingly valuable sector within crypto, and I believe it has the potential to become one of the major narratives this cycle. Just look at the market caps some of these projects have already achieved in the image below.
With that in mind, I’ve taken an asymmetrical bet on $SHINJUKU below a $300K market cap.
I’d encourage everyone to do their own research, explore the project, and, where possible, try out the products for themselves.
The team has been actively participating in hackathons and attracting attention from notable figures within the crypto space, including @blknoiz06, who recently followed the project.
War stocks are pushing higher as geopolitical tensions escalate once again, while $OIL continues to climb towards a key weekly resistance level.
Is this all leading towards a possible TACO moment from now into the weekend, potentially easing tensions and triggering a reversal in the current energy sector.
Just something I am watching.
$BTC – Market Update
What a change in momentum. Bitcoin was finally showing signs of strength after reclaiming the H4 200 MA and the POC, and I was expecting the previous swing highs to be the next area of interest.
However, the market had other ideas. Price faced a sharp rejection from the Value Area Highs, followed by a lack of any meaningful recovery around the POC and H4 200 MA. This is a clear sign that sellers remain in control for now.
Attention now turns to the $81.2K–$81.8K zone, which aligns with the Value Area Lows and range lows. I’ll be watching closely for a potential bounce from this area.
A reaction here could provide some short-term relief, but until BTC can reclaim key resistance levels, I’ll remain cautious and avoid getting ahead of the price action.
$VIRTUAL
Price action is looking increasingly constructive on the daily timeframe, with a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
Price is currently attempting to break above the $0.70 resistance level, while a bullish crossover of the H4 12/21 EMAs could be an early indication of strengthening momentum.
If bulls can secure a breakout and maintain acceptance above resistance, I’d be looking for a potential retest of the current swing highs, with the possibility of printing another higher high and continuing the bullish market structure.
Currently my biggest position.
This seems to be playing out so far.
Although I’ve remained cautious on $BTC since losing the H4 200 MA and hovering around the range lows, there are a couple of charts I’m finding increasingly difficult to ignore, particularly given the confluence between them.
First, $USDT.
We’re currently trading into a major weekly resistance level. A rejection here could potentially form a lower high, keeping the bearish market structure intact. This would be a constructive development for risk assets and could provide some much-needed relief for the market.
Second, #TOTAL3.
As I’ve already covered, we’ve recently seen a significant bullish shift in market structure. However, price is now approaching a key level that needs to hold if we’re to maintain that bullish outlook.
Historically, since 2023, we haven’t seen these EMAs flip bullish without subsequently printing new highs. They’ve recently crossed bullish for the first time since the highs in Q4 last year, approximately 300 days ago.
That makes a bounce from this area a realistic scenario, although, of course, nothing is guaranteed.
Putting it all together, I’m getting ready to pull the trigger and start buying back into the market.
I was hoping, and still am, for a deeper correction across $ALTS to provide better entries and an opportunity to accumulate more. However, in a bull market, being too patient and waiting for the perfect dip can sometimes be just as costly as chasing price.
I’m not abandoning caution, but the confluence across these charts is becoming increasingly compelling. It’s time to be prepared to act if the market gives us the confirmation we’re looking for.
$BTC – Price is reclaiming the key H4 200 moving average, but is now compressed between this level and the POC, which continues to act as a significant resistance zone.
As I’ve highlighted in recent updates, a successful reclaim of both levels could provide some much-needed short-term relief across BTC and the altcoin market, with the previous swing highs likely to come back into play.
83.4K–83.9K is the key resistance zones to reclaim and hold if bullish momentum is to continue. Until then, confirmation is still needed.
$BTC Update
Price looks set to make another attempt at the H4 200 MA.
As long as we remain below this level and continue consolidating around the range lows, I’d expect short-term bearish price action to persist.
However, a reclaim of the H4 200 MA, followed by acceptance above it, could be the catalyst for a broader relief move across the market. If we can also reclaim the POC, I’d expect momentum to build, opening the door for a retest of the previous swing highs.
These are my straightforward, realistic thoughts on lower-timeframe Bitcoin. For now, the H4 200 MA remains the key level to watch.
$PUMP Update
A strong 30% impulse move from the $0.00386 support level, with price now trading back above two key levels: the Daily 50 MA and the $0.00465 S/R level.
Frustratingly, I was very close to pulling the trigger on the support bounce, but with it being Sunday night, I decided to hold off.
If we can confirm a reclaim of both the Daily 50 MA and the $0.00465 S/R level, I’ll be looking for an opportunity to re-enter this trade.
I’ll keep you updated as the setup develops.
Although I’ve remained cautious on $BTC since losing the H4 200 MA and hovering around the range lows, there are a couple of charts I’m finding increasingly difficult to ignore, particularly given the confluence between them.
First, $USDT.
We’re currently trading into a major weekly resistance level. A rejection here could potentially form a lower high, keeping the bearish market structure intact. This would be a constructive development for risk assets and could provide some much-needed relief for the market.
Second, #TOTAL3.
As I’ve already covered, we’ve recently seen a significant bullish shift in market structure. However, price is now approaching a key level that needs to hold if we’re to maintain that bullish outlook.
Historically, since 2023, we haven’t seen these EMAs flip bullish without subsequently printing new highs. They’ve recently crossed bullish for the first time since the highs in Q4 last year, approximately 300 days ago.
That makes a bounce from this area a realistic scenario, although, of course, nothing is guaranteed.
Putting it all together, I’m getting ready to pull the trigger and start buying back into the market.
I was hoping, and still am, for a deeper correction across $ALTS to provide better entries and an opportunity to accumulate more. However, in a bull market, being too patient and waiting for the perfect dip can sometimes be just as costly as chasing price.
I’m not abandoning caution, but the confluence across these charts is becoming increasingly compelling. It’s time to be prepared to act if the market gives us the confirmation we’re looking for.
