Founder and Portfolio Manager at Canavan Capital Partners, a wholesale investment fund. Editorial Director at Fat Tail Investment Research
Wollongong
Joined October 2019
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Well, it’s taken a while to get here, but we’re finally ready to accept wholesale investor applications for the Canavan Capital Partners Australian Share Fund.
Go to the website and click on the ‘Invest Now’ button for the Investment Memorandum and the online application form.
canavancapital.com.au
The Fund will employ the same philosophy and process I used the run the (model) Permanent Capital Portfolio for clients of Fat Tail Investment Research.
From inception (1 December 2024) to 31 July, the portfolio generated a gross annualised return of 18%, significantly beating the market.
I achieved that by doing less, not more: Holding average cash levels of 15-20%, avoiding speculative miners and hot sectors (Aussie IT and ‘quality compounders’ in 2025). Basically, trying not to do anything stupid.
In investing, you win by not losing. Taking care of the downside and letting the upside take care of itself is the opposite of how most people invest. But in my view, it’s the only way to do it.
The next 10 years is going to be very good for the genuine active investor. The market is increasingly distorted by computers trading short-term noise and momentum, and, to a lesser extent, value agnostic passive investors. This will create plenty of mis-pricings.
For those with the temperament and patience to play the long game, and accept short-term pain from time to time, the next decade will be a good one, in a market where overall returns will probably be pretty poor.
If you’d like to join me on this long-term journey, check out the Investment Memorandum, or enter your details in the website and I’ll be in touch.
Cheers,
Greg
After panic selling last week. Small cap punters are back panic buying. Emotional capital going to get a big draw down in the coming months.
Greg Canavan retweeted
“Hughsy, I am a mum, running my gym, and had to get rid of my my staff to survive. I am now working from sun up to sun down in a physical job, smashing myself to keep the doors open. All while raising my teenagers as a single parent.
Thanks for all that you are doing to bring light to these grubs.”
Every honest private employer of people is stretching to breaking point. Three levels of waste and corruption, council, state, federal. We must change how we are governed.
Greg Canavan retweeted
From GS via BBG:
- Hedge funds have loaded up on shorts, pushing bearish bets near a 5-year high and raising the risk of a sharp squeeze.
- Short/Buy ratio hit ~5x across global equities, and short leverage is now at 99th percentile over the past 5 years.
What's the setup?
'Too broken to buy'. So bearish its bullish
The CSI 300 is now the most oversold it has ever been in our data.
zerohedge.com/the-market-ear…
Greg Canavan retweeted
Highly recommended reading!
Nomad Letters: The Full Collection of the Nomad Investment Partnership Letters to Partners, 2001–2014, now available for preorder: press.stripe.com/nomad-lette…
Greg Canavan retweeted
Charlie Munger on whether the principles of value investing will ever become obsolete:
“They’ll never die. The idea of getting more value than you pay for, that’s what investment is. If you want to be successful.”
Greg Canavan retweeted
A boy may forget the lessons, but he never forgets the man who believed in him.
Ian Wright called his teacher, Mr. Pigden, "the first male figure in my life."
Never underestimate what a caring man can do for a boy who has no one else.
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Greg Canavan retweeted
To justify today’s data center buildout, AI would need to bring in about $3.5 trillion a year by 2032, per a new Brookings paper.
That’s 8.8% of U.S. GDP, nearly as much as Americans spend on food (9.1%), and far more than on energy (5.1%).
Greg Canavan retweeted
India's coal squeeze is deepening: 96 coal power plants, about half the fleet, have just three days of stocks, up from 60 in mid-September, per government data cited by Reuters, as warm weather lifts power demand. #India #Coal #Power
oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N…
Nasty update from Nick Scali. RBA getting its slowdown in domestic demand. You can thank Albo and Chalmers for that.
Consensus was at around $39m for the first half. Guiding down to around $30m. NCK was trading on 16x fwd earnings. Going to be ugly tomorrow.
Greg Canavan retweeted
Half of India's 191 coal-fired power plants were running with critically low fuel inventories, as power demand has surged amid hotter-than-usual weather driven by El Nino, government data showed.
More: en.sxcoal.com/news/detail/21…
#India #CoalStock
