I know very little and like to learn in public. DMs open.
Berlin, Germany
Joined October 2010
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A few thoughts on $EVO's Q3 2026
Good news and bad. And, lastly, 3 ugly takes:
1. Regulated markets are riskier than unregulated ones
2. Asia is a market share story
3. Good games are not enough anymore
$EVO bear case in one image
"Ice Fishing is probably the largest game in online history, and it's the third time Evolution created such a great game." – CEO Carlesund
GOOD
- North America, Latam & Africa: double-digit growth
- RNG: double-digit growth beyond bounds
BAD
- Asia & Europe
- Brazil: accounts for "well below half of LatAm" → a €20m/q impact could reverse ALL of $EVO's YoY global growth
- Lower margins (even adjusted for one-offs)
My areas of interest at tomorrow's $EVO Q3 results:
SALES
- Live: growth vs decline, game shows vs table games
- CT & Ice Fishing: cannibalization vs net growth
- RNG: further growth
- Asia & Europe: managed stagnation
- North America: double-digit USD growth
- Latam: prospects
OPERATIONS
- Headcount: ex-Americas studio downsizing
- Release schedule of Hasbro games in the US
- Brazil: market outlook, local studio status, replacement supply plans
- $EVO's marketing stance re: Pragmatic's celebrity push
FINANCES
- Profitability from $EVO's struggling higher-margin core sources (Europe & Asia) vs. growing lower-margin peripheries (Americas & Africa)
- Buybacks: pace, timeline & valuation
$PM Q3 results
‣ Cigarettes: consistent profit growth (2/3rds of EPS)
‣ IQOS: temporary slow-down (1/3rd of EPS)
‣ Zyn: persistent disappointment (~0% of EPS)
$TYL: the lone giant in a niche where selling software subscriptions has a great future
$EVO's biggest studio with a capacity to host 8,000+ personnel and 600+ tables has lately been sitting half empty
Biggest sign of an exceptional management:
Keeping promises made years earlier
Plan on $DPZ's high debt load against high interest rates:
- count on earnings growth
- payback to deleverage towards 4x ebitda
$DPZ's principal advantage in boosting profits despite stable sales, severe competition and inflation:
Uniquely scaled & owned supply chain where profits are shared 50/50 with franchisees
