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1/4 🧵We're launching Goalunit Fair Price 2.0 (GFP)
GFP estimates the price a buyer is most likely to pay for a player's contract rather than a theoretical market value.
GFP uses 38 features scoring 70,000+ players weekly.
Allsvenskan numbers below:
Two young sixes in Allsvenskan, both with contracts that run out in December 2027. Clubs from the big five leagues have been circling both.
Otto Rosengren, 23, Malmö: €4.1M
Matias Siltanen, 19, Djurgården: €8.0M
Which one would you sign?
Siltanen is close to the opposite. No midfielder in Allsvenskan gives the ball away less, and he’s 19. He’s played every match this season and defends far better than Rosengren.
What’s missing is the end product. No goals, and he struggles under pressure, 45th of 48. That gets harder a league up, not easier.
Both contracts are ticking down. Rosengren has lost half of his value since last autumn, Siltanen about a fifth.
A club that needs attacking quality from midfield in January should take Rosengren, and he’s valued at half of what Siltanen is. Siltanen is the one you buy to sell on.
Malmö have the more dangerous player. Djurgården have the better asset.
United are looking at Calvert-Lewin for January.
What bothers us is the level. He’s bang on the league average, and Wissa, Evanilson or Rutter would probably be better options.
Wissa is cheaper, and Evanilson has played even more than Calvert-Lewin. Rutter is 24 and drifts between nine and ten, but he’s still the best rated striker at any club outside the big spenders.
Whoever they sign, United’s main problem probably isn’t the players or the coach. It’s the processes and the strategy above them.
Allsvenskan’s ten biggest signings of the last two years, and how they have gone.
Victor Lind tops the list. Hammarby paid €2.6M in February. Regular minutes and the best rating of the ten later, he is worth €9.3M.
Four up. Four level. Two down. The two that have clearly lost value are both Djurgården’s.
Carrick is in United’s sack zone.
Since 2018, United extend managers when results beat performance and sack them when results fall behind. The performance barely differs. It has cost the club millions and wins on the pitch.
Points / xPoints per game, last 10:
Extended: 1.94 / 1.54
Sacked: 1.36 / 1.50
Carrick now: 1.30 / 1.74
Results tell you what happened. Performance tells you what happens next.
Is Allsvenskan’s best winger out of form?
Victor Lind’s chance creation has dropped in his last four matches compared with the rest of the season.
Hammarby will probably need him at his best against Sirius tonight.
Short 🧵 on Bayerns Lennart Karl.
Second biggest value riser of the last year, behind Yan Diomande. And the only one in the top five who hasn’t changed club.
The derby had all the heat you’d expect. The football was one-way traffic. Fenerbahçe let Gala have 25 shots and only got four off themselves.
The five best-rated players on the pitch all wore Galatasaray shirts, with Osimhen miles ahead of the rest.
Lazio are joint top of Serie A. On underlying performance, they’re eighth.
Inter have the same 22 points. They’ve actually earned them.
The Ballon d’Or usually comes down to a few big nights, and a bit of politics.
Our data model doesn’t just watch the big nights. It went through every match from August to July and came back with Michael Olise.
Mbappé and Yamal were right behind him. Close enough that we almost called it a draw.
Somehow our data model’s invite to the gala got lost in the mail. Probably for the best. It would only have brought a spreadsheet.


















