THE CASUAL COUP by @PronouncedAlva On the campaign trail with Andy Burnham: This is a campaign on several levels. Burnham has “a tough fight” against Reform, as I hear him say repeatedly while watching him door-knocking. But he’s also fighting two other implied contests: with a Labour selectorate of MPs and members, who soon may well have to decide whether to nominate or vote for him to replace Keir Starmer; and with the electorate at large, who soon could find themselves choosing between Burnham and Nigel Farage in a general election. This is a tight by-election against Farage’s Reform, but Burnham is already being scrutinised as a prospective prime minister. With three weeks to go until polling day, Burnham has allowed me to accompany him while campaigning in Makerfield, an invitation extended only to the New Statesman. He says this by-election is the last chance to stop Reform. “If I just put it in the terms of Greater Manchester, I feel we’re on the cusp. If we don’t pull it back now, I think something changes.” On Wigan Council, Labour lost all of the seats it was defending to Reform in May. “That’s a very big statement. You can’t just see that and minimise it.” When people ask him “Why this moment?” results like that are why. As one of Andy Burnham’s closest allies put it to me: “Whatever happens, this will be in the history books.” Cover photo by Niall Hodson for the New Statesman