GB Research retweeted
We ran this exact contract ($126,210.50 touch by Oct 28, 2028 from ~$80.5k spot) across our multi-model panel + prediction markets:
- 4-Family Pool: 60.8% YES (@GrantCardone wins)
- Polymarket/Kalshi implied curve: 58.0%
- Zeno correlation-adjusted shade: 53.4%
@jason's "never" (~0%) is way off, so Cardone has the +EV side.
Still, Oct 2028 sits just ~6 mos after the Apr 2028 halving (vs 6.5-7.5 mo post-halving lags in 2016/2020/2024) with 1y vol down at 44%, giving Jason a ~40% live sweat if the breakout slips to Q1 2029.
Bitcoin will never break its all-time high again." — Jason Calacanis
Jason, I'll bet you $1,000,000 it will break its ATH. Here are the terms:
Bitcoin hits or exceeds $126,210.50 on or before October 28, 2028, 12PM PST
I’m happy to trust you to pay or if you prefer we can each escrow the dollars with independent party.
The bet is either settled when Bitcoin hits the ATH or on October 28, 2028.
@jason Do we have a bet?
GB Research retweeted
Kenneth Reitz, creator of Python's legendary requests library, was already talking about "the requests for OpenAl."
Now connect the dots. $requests has a story worth paying attention to.
My friend @jxnlco is making "the requests for openai" jxnl.github.io/instructor/
GB Research retweeted
The Fragility of Agreement.
Learning from 8M+ forecasts.
3 / 6 pages of our initial research preview paper on recent developments and discoveries.
GB Research retweeted
HIDRANET AND HIDRAVPN DEV REPORT, OCTOBER 27
Repository: github.com/NeurexBK/HidraNet
Highlight of the day: HidraVPN has a second exit, in the Netherlands
The network now has two exits, in two countries and with two different providers, plus the entry. We set up the new server, published the official node list signed with it, and connected through the Netherlands for real. All of this is still testing: HidraVPN is not launched.
Commits of the day
9d0f90f (PR 26)
The Netherlands exit joins the official node list, signed offline. Along with it, we updated two libraries our automated audit flagged.
4 files, 23 lines added, 11 removed.
github.com/NeurexBK/HidraNet…
1471bbf (PR 27)
The guide for independent entry operators, and the node installer now takes the node's country and internal address range right at install time.
6 files, 449 lines added, 10 removed.
github.com/NeurexBK/HidraNet…
What we tested today
1. Buying passes with HNET inside the browser
Our new developer's first piece of work passed its acceptance test on a real Windows PC, with a real payment on the Solana network. The payment was credited to the account, a repeated confirmation did not credit twice, the passes arrived and the VPN connected with them. We have already sent the developer the changes to tidy up the purchase screen, which go in before we merge the code.
2. Connecting through the Netherlands
We connected through the new exit and checked it with a public leak test: IPv4 and IPv6 with a Dutch address, WebRTC clean and no leaks. Websites saw only the exit, never the PC.
3. Automated tests
On GitHub, every check green on both PRs: Linux, Windows, the end to end test of who can see what, the anonymity checks and the dependency audit. The node installer got new tests for the country and the address range, with 48 checks passing.
Where we moved forward
A guide for operators
We published the guide for anyone who wants to run a HidraVPN entry. It explains, with no fine print, what an entry does and does not do, what it costs, what the operator gets, and the setup step by step. The operator gets their name on their node and in the official list, a place among the Founding Operators on the site, 100 passes a month, their node monitored, stickers and a T shirt after three months and, for a company, its name as a network partner. Nothing financial. During the preview, independent operators run entries only, every candidate is checked first, and each operator can run at most two nodes. That way the network grows without anyone being able to fill the list alone.
Network monitoring, in final review
We are finishing an automated hourly check of the whole network: every node in the list, the signatures of the list and of the release manifest, the pass issuer and whether passes are on sale, and the expiry dates two weeks ahead. Any problem becomes an email alert, and the alert closes itself when the problem is gone. It runs outside our servers, so it keeps working even if one of them goes down. It has 72 automated tests and is going through an independent review before it goes into main.
Next days
Operator recruitment opens as soon as the monitoring is live. The guide promises that we tell an operator when their node goes down, and we only promise what already works.
What is still left
1. Put the monitoring live and open recruitment for entry operators.
2. Merge buying passes with HNET in the browser, with the developer's changes.
3. Sign and publish HidraVPN 0.1.1.
4. Code signing for the Windows programs.
5. The new browser release with the VPN page, which is the launch.
GB Research retweeted
Handsome lads.
Doxxed team, open sourced build in public.
Degens thinks it wouldn’t go to millions.
Data economy is worth billions and there is more awareness about data privacy than it ever was specially in defi.
That’s where solana:Aov3BtQvrGXM5V9oiHu8PKJWeV8a2rFnr24fwWcNpump comes it.
Private browser, mail, messenger and VPN.
The two people behind HidraNet.
What we've built so far: a browser with Tor built in, mail and chat that encrypt on your device, our own network engine in Rust, and HidraVPN in preview.
Same team, same vision, and we're just getting started. $HNET
GB Research retweeted
👀👀👀
our Telegram channel is live 📢
dev updates, announcements and everything HidraNet, straight from the team. no noise.
join here 👇
t.me/hidranetoff
GB Research retweeted
A token is only the beginning.
Preview the token and TAO amounts for a separate Solana liquidity-pool step on TAOLaunch.
The pairing uses a supported bridged TAO asset
taolaunch.online/solana
GB Research retweeted
The AI knows what you asked and never learns who asked. How PARANOID does it is explained in detail in our whitepaper, which you can read at the link below.
paranoid.red/whitepaper.pdf
GB Research retweeted
“ CORPUS CONSTELLATION:
24 fields, 7,330,284 forecasts, 370,591 cases in this run. “
1/ In 1906, Francis Galton asked 787 fairgoers to guess the weight of an ox. Their average was within 1% of truth.
For 120 years, science, meteorology, and finance followed this rule: when in doubt, average everyone.
Until now.
We are solving the failure mode of the crowd. Follow live:
zenodivergent.dev/live-read 🧵 👇
GB Research retweeted
Thanks to everyone who joined the Space today.
A privacy project doesn't grow on ads. It grows on people who ask, push and check the work. That's exactly what you did today.
HidraNet is yours too.
GB Research retweeted
1/ In 1906, Francis Galton asked 787 fairgoers to guess the weight of an ox. Their average was within 1% of truth.
For 120 years, science, meteorology, and finance followed this rule: when in doubt, average everyone.
Until now.
We are solving the failure mode of the crowd. Follow live:
zenodivergent.dev/live-read 🧵 👇
GB Research retweeted
" For over a century — dating back to Francis Galton’s 1906 observation of the crowd at the county fair — the bedrock rule of forecasting across meteorology, economics, intelligence, and markets has been the same: when in doubt, average everyone together. The wisdom of the crowd is notoriously hard to beat, because individual biases cancel out.
Until they don't. When the crowd agrees for the wrong reasons — shared blind spots, common training data, herd behavior, or correlated models — the average isn't wise; it's confidently wrong.
This moment is the first time anyone is testing whether a neural foundation model can learn how consensus breaks across completely different domains.
In our previous run, we saw the first concrete proof that this is possible:
- Wikipedia event outcomes: 28% lower error than the crowd average, and 14% better than a tuned gradient-boosted tree baseline.
- Prediction markets: 39% error reduction over the plain average.
- Physical weather: 6% error reduction over our previous production reference... "
GB Research retweeted
A VPN is meant to keep your browsing private, but buying one usually starts with your name, your email and your card. Even a VPN that keeps no logs of where you go still knows who paid for it.
Now you can ask the AI on PARANOID for NordVPN or Surfshark, and it pays for the subscription for you. The VPN company gets a code, not a customer, and nothing on their side points back to you.
This is the whole idea of PARANOID in one purchase. The AI you ask does not know who you are, the store you buy from does not know who you are, and now the tool that hides your traffic does not know who you are either.
NordVPN and Surfshark now sit next to gift cards, eSIM data and phone top-ups at paranoid.red/buy.
GB Research retweeted
The AI on PARANOID can now buy you mobile data for a trip and top up a prepaid phone, and nobody along the way learns who you are.
Tell it you are flying to Japan and need 1GB for a week, and it pays for the eSIM for you. It is not just Japan. The same works for the US, all of Europe including Germany, France and the UK, Mexico, Brazil, Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia and 191 places in total. Top-ups work for 776 carriers in 147 countries, and when a carrier sells its top-up as a PIN code, the AI buys that one, so you never hand over your phone number.
The AI never knows who asked, and the store never gets your name or an account. What you bought is kept only in your own browser, where nobody but you can see it.
Gift cards, eSIM data and phone top-ups are all on one page now at paranoid.red/buy.
GB Research retweeted
$ZENO getting more interesting day by day...
>Builds a “model of models” that reads forecasts from humans, markets, and AI, then spots fragile consensus and blind spots
>Open models published on Hugging Face (multiple versions, live API / MCP tool)
>Dev (@mbarrbosa / @zenoVision_) has real AI/ML background and ships models publicly
Strong longterm angle: if AI agents and prediction markets grow, tools that surface blind spots and score forecasts become valuable
Low market cap relative to the ambition (forecasting infrastructure + rewards layer).
See you at millions?
Seems like good RR microcap play here $ZENO
ASI / Surprise Intelligence | meta-superforecasting
AI designed to spot what models, markets & experts ALL get wrong
Zeno is building an intelligence layer that identifies unreliable predictions before they become costly decisions.
doxxed dev
FMGe8RStdPc1YR59BBuV5Ui12DEe3Q2zVoihrJBbpump
GB Research retweeted
We have made it to the $ASGARD forest. 🌲
Would you want a window into our world?🌎
GB Research retweeted
“v0.86.2 checks started at 06:09 UTC on the @nvidia H200s. The full 27-model run will follow automatically if they pass.
Earlier, v0.86.1 stopped after 13 of 27models because @huggingface caps saves at 320 per hour.
The new run saves less often and waits out that cap.”































