Associate Director @rhodium_group focusing on EU-CN economic relations, industrial policy and China’s EV industry
Berlin, Germany
Joined January 2020
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New @merics_eu report on the opportunities and risks that come with German carmakers deepening integration into #China and consequences for the German and European economies. 1/20 merics.org/en/bumpy-road-ahe…
EU duties on Chinese BEVs have slowed but not stopped Chinese carmakers from making inroads into Europe. The EU is now responding more holistically with one of its most ambitious auto policies in decades: the Industrial Accelerator Act. But it risks falling short too. Read more
Why are Chinese EVs so (damn) cheap?
Comparing costs between Western and Chinese automakers in China shows that subsidies matter, but they’re only part of the story.
This also matters for trade policy, as a big chunk of Chinese OEMs cost advantage is not linked to subsidies.
Read more in our latest study: rhg.com/research/why-are-chi…
Foreign carmakers are facing a China “hangover.” Once the growth engine of the global auto sector, the market has turned into a source of losses. Our new @Rhodium_Group note explains the strategies now emerging. 🧵
Implications of the loss of market shares and profit as well as the new strategies, go beyond Western OEMs bottom lines:
Western suppliers who followed them into China are at risk, and Chinese SOEs are seeing joint-venture profits collapse.
The choices carmakers make now will shape the global auto industry for years to come. Read the full analysis here: rhg.com/research/the-hangove…
Gregor Williams (Sebastian) retweeted
Our latest note looks at the ongoing electrification of China's vehicle fleet—especially in trucking—and estimate what it means for oil demand.
China's EVs are already displacing an estimated 1 million barrels of oil demand per day, and that will grow.
rhg.com/research/electric-tr…
Its not just the US that is raising tariffs: As I'd predicted last year, China's car exports to Russia are plummeting due to Russia's recycling fee hike (a de facto tariff). Exports in Feb down to 16k from Sep peak of 115k. Read more: rhg.com/research/collision-c…
/1 In December, I wrote about China-Russia auto trade, noting that even China’s closest geopolitical partners are reluctant to become a dumping ground for Chinese cars. Russia has significantly raised its "hidden" tariff—the recycling fee. 🧵
/7 This creates a conundrum for Volkswagen, which exited the Russian market in 2023 and stated in 2024 that neither it nor its joint ventures are exporting vehicles to Russia.
/8 Russia’s hiking of the recycling fee highlights the difficulties Chinese carmakers face—even in supposedly friendly markets. Read more in our note: rhg.com/research/collision-c…
