BEEP BEEP 📟 (@hamayvinyavin) profile picture

CLE sports fan / Anti anti-Zionist

Florida, USA
Joined March 2011
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This is a MUST READ
Greenlight has won all litigation with James Fishback. @jamesfishback has been ordered to return every penny of salary and bonus that we ever paid him, to repay the money we lent him, to pay most of our legal fees, and to stop claiming titles, roles and responsibilities he never had. No, Fishback was not the “Head of Macro.” Rather, as the arbitrator found, he was a “faithless servant.” That’s a fancy legal way of saying that Fishback was so disloyal during his employment that he was ordered to refund to us his entire compensation during his tenure at Greenlight. Ordinarily, my style would be to let this decisive ruling speak for itself. However, Fishback has made himself a public figure. He publicly requested appointments to be a governor of the Federal Reserve and a U.S. Senator. He unsuccessfully ran for Florida Governor and has hinted that he intends to run for President in the next election. I therefore feel a civic duty to share additional details and thoughts about Fishback’s character and why he should never be placed in a position of trust. For more than three years, Fishback engaged in a scheme to harass Greenlight Capital and me. While he made a series of false allegations against us, I generally chose to remain silent and allow the legal process to run its course. It has now done so. The result of the final arbitration is that every single claim Fishback ever made about us was either withdrawn or was legally found to be untrue. The conclusion of the arbitration represents the end of all litigation between Greenlight and Fishback, with Greenlight winning a clean sweep and being awarded over $4 million of damages against Fishback due to his tortious actions, false statements and baseless allegations. Fishback has accused us of lawfare. Let’s set the record straight: it can’t be lawfare when he started the litigation. We simply defended ourselves and made now proved counterclaims. This all began with Fishback demanding a $5 million pay-off to spare us the reputational harm and legal costs of defending frivolous accusations of religious discrimination, age discrimination, a politically hostile work environment and defamation. After filing his lawsuit, Fishback told Jack Farley on the Forward Guidance podcast that “discovery is going to be fun” and would vindicate his story. Farley asked how frequently Greenlight employees referred to him as ‘Head of Macro’ and what written evidence supported his claims. Fishback answered “Well, I don’t have access to my company email. If I did, we could produce them up the wazoo.” Well, discovery came and went and not a single piece of evidence supported any of Fishback’s bogus claims. A company-wide email search revealed that the only additional Greenlight emails calling him “Head of Macro” were those where he gave the title to himself in his signature block while sending external emails where nobody from Greenlight was copied. Instead, discovery uncovered some outrageous conduct by Fishback. For example, Fishback and his father concocted a scheme to use a fake reference check to create his fraudulent defamation claim against us. In September of 2023, after his employment ended, Fishback texted his father a draft of a fake reference check email that included an inquiry as to Fishback’s duties as Greenlight’s “Head of Macro.” In the same chain, Fishback texted his father: “We need them to DEFAME us. Which THEY WILL. That’s another $1 MM right there.” Fishback persuaded a friend of a friend who worked at an investment firm to send us the fake reference check. When we responded that Fishback was not the Head of Macro, Fishback promptly sued us, claiming that our response caused the friend’s company to walk away from making a $5 million investment in Fishback’s start-up hedge fund. The friend of the friend testified under oath that he sent the fake reference check as a favor and that his company was never considering investing with Fishback. The friend got fired. It was all a sham to conjure a fake legal claim to extract money from us. There’s more that came out in the litigation: On his final day of employment, Fishback stole Greenlight’s most valuable property, its portfolio of investments, by emailing it to his personal email (in our industry this is a big deal). An even bigger deal is that he and his father were secretly trading positions in Greenlight’s investment portfolio in their personal accounts. Fishback admitted to violating his confidentiality obligations to Greenlight over 60 times, including by sending confidential investment information to third parties. Fishback made numerous statements, including that he ran macro trading at Greenlight and that he was responsible for generating over $100 million of profits – none of which were true. Fishback told various lies about why he left Greenlight, including that he left due to a hostile political environment. In a classic example of “You can’t fire me, I quit,” Fishback resigned right after my assistant scheduled a meeting with him so I could fire him for not doing his job. As for the political environment at Greenlight, Fishback has repeatedly claimed that I am “a Soros aligned hedge fund billionaire.” That’s simply not so. Politically, I am just left of center. I have made large philanthropic contributions to causes supporting bi-partisanship, bridging differences and pluralism. I support centrist Democrat politicians. Some on the far-left have even tried to fight my efforts to have a more civil culture by labeling me a far-right conservative. That isn’t true either. At Greenlight, we discuss politics so infrequently that I was unaware of Fishback’s views during his tenure. And it surprised me when he quoted scripture in his resignation email. His politics have since been made clear to all. We have no view on the sincerity of his religious beliefs but suffice it to say that we’ve been witness to him breaking those Commandments regarding stealing and lying. Fishback campaigned for Florida Governor on an extreme “tough on crime” platform. He threatened homeless people with 15 years in jail for being homeless; he threatened teenagers participating in riots with 5 years in jail, including prosecuting minors as adults; he promised criminal prosecutions of homeowners’ associations; and planned for mass deportations of non-citizens. He even said a black man “should be lynched” for confronting him. And yet, Fishback is a man who believes the laws don’t apply to him. Rules are for other people. During his campaign, Fishback was challenged for living outside of Florida. His testimony that he lived in Florida was certainly news to us. When Fishback worked for Greenlight, he provided his address as being in Washington, D.C. He had us withhold D.C. resident taxes from his payroll. When he visited our New York office, he frequently submitted expense reimbursements for Amtrak trips between D.C. and New York. Before this final arbitration, we had already won verdicts against Fishback to repay the loans that we generously lent to him on favorable terms for what he claimed at the time to be a family emergency (though that’s not what he told Jack Farley). Even with valid court orders of U.S. Federal District Court Judges ordering him to repay us and surrender property to satisfy the judgements, Fishback simply thumbs his nose at the rule of law. He decides on his own that the Judge was a Democrat, or was appointed by a Democrat, or was otherwise politically motivated, rendering the rulings (in his mind) invalid. Fishback was ordered to repay his debt to us: He ignored it. Fishback was ordered to turn over shares in a company and 43 luxury items he owns to us: He ignored it. A company owned by Fishback was ordered to produce documents in discovery: He ignored it. And that is just a partial list. We have little doubt that he will try to ignore the arbitration ruling against him from the arbitration he commenced. Ignoring court orders is a very dangerous way for anyone to behave. But those that do, especially in such a self-serving fashion, should not be put in a position of public trust or have influence in the enforcement of laws against others. It doesn’t matter that I’m a Democrat. What does matter is that we gave a seemingly intelligent college drop-out a chance to achieve what he once said was his dream job. And once he was provided with that opportunity, instead of applying any semblance of a work ethic, he chose to be a “faithless servant”. We have a theory as to why Fishback wishes to continue his political ambitions. We believe that by continuing to seek office, he will find donors to his campaign, PAC and charitable endeavors, and he will use those funds to stay in hotels, rent cars, travel and dine out – all without ever acquiring an asset in his own name that can be used to repay his legitimate creditors, like us. It’s the perfect way for Fishback to continue to grift and continue to avoid paying his debts. It won’t work. James, you owe us over $4 million and interest is ticking. And, when we do collect it, I will in turn donate it to a combination of the National Immigration Forum, The Center for Reproductive Rights, The Florida Rights Restoration Coalition, and The Florida Chapter of the ADL. The best way to fight your hate is to support those you hate.
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You guys have twelve likes in two days on your attempt to dunk on me. I post a photo of tomatoes or flowers I grew — thousands. (I am an authentic gardener) Hat I knit — thousands. (I have real world skills, several). Opinion I have on current affairs — tens of thousands. Which of us is relevant?
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Watch what a PHONY Tucker Carlson is. Now complaining that the GOP forced Vivek Ramaswamy on voters: “How about no!” Conveniently LEAVING OUT... That Tucker himself spent YEARS promoting and praising Vivek, including during Vivek's run for president. Vivek even launched his presidential campaign on Tucker’s Fox News show! Tucker previously called Vivek a “leader,” “worth listening to,” and someone who had “flowered as a political figure.” When you talk to him, "you realize there's hope." ROLL THE TAPE.
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Ouch But perfect
Suddenly we’re not allowed to ask questions? I guess that’s only okay when you’re accusing a widow of murdering her own husband.
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New: Texas 🇺🇸 Karim AbuZaid. “Now that Texas turn Blue, it’s a chance for us to takeover”.
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Relax. The Republican Party is in good hands.
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Well said
Lost them and should never try to get them back. Podcast bros are entertainers, not serious policy people. Worse, they have zero accountability to the truth. No fact checks. No sourcing. No foundational education on the complex matters they discuss on their shows. They aren’t the problem, however. The problem is that too many people use entertainers as their news source. Viewers incentivize increasingly crazy podcast topics. But policy discussions aren’t supposed to be entertaining. They’re supposed to be nuanced, informative, and frankly, boring. When the public starts to incentivize boring intellectual policy discussions instead of click-bait entertainment, our national politics will finally be less like a political version of the Jerry Springer Show, and more like the serious political debates expected of an advanced civilization.
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Of course it’s “the Jews”
Insane story, incredible reporting by @NickBerardini
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Don't blame Tucker. He was trying to help Republicans when he abandoned the party, then fabricated a story on the eve of the election that Trump wants to drop a nuke and start WWIII, destroying the entire world. And don't say this influenced anyone. It was only viewed 100 million times.
Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer. Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war. To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party. In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha. The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon. Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people. And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final. We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months. Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it. Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made. They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February. After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making. One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week. Now would be the time for them to speak up.
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An entire generation of Americans were one-shotted by the kind of slop propaganda that used to only fool Pakistani corner store owners and Egyptian cab drivers. Sad to see.
More protests throughout NHL arenas, as this sign protesting America & Israel's relations is seen in Los Angeles tonight. There was another protest sign in St. Louis the other day, which was removed by arena security.
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JD Vance’s Iran pollster thinks that if you defend Charlie Kirk’s widow from public slander and torture, that makes you a “neocon” and a “leftist.”
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RIP banana prices I guess
Tucker Carlson: "Abdul El-Sayed is against sending foreign aid." Marjorie Taylor Greene: "Abdul El-Sayed is against sending foreign aid." Dave Smith: "Abdul El-Sayed is against sending foreign aid." Abdul El-Sayed, two days after elected to the Senate: “WE MUST REFUND USAID”
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Replying to @nick_matau @grok
So @cenkuygur talks about Palestine/anti-Israel content 60x MORE than America/Americans... and @benshapiro talks about America/Americans more than Israel/Israeli topics... Interesting. Cenk lied and exposed himself.
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Of all the dumb talking points I encounter, and I encounter a lot of them, the New Right (Woke Right) talking point that Iran has been "close to a nuclear weapon for 20 years," implying that's a false pretext and Trump lied, is perhaps the dumbest. Just astronomically fake. I can't believe Buck Sexton, ex-CIA genius, trotted it out last night, among so many others. There's no way he's this dumb as an analyst, so he must have other motivations for saying it. Let's explain how stupid it is, though. Iran wants a nuclear weapon because they're a lunatic terrorist-theocratic regime that's also a threat to everyone around them. That means they're trying to build one, and when they encounter setbacks and obstacles, they will keep trying to build one. So, if they wanted one 20 years ago and got close and got set back, say by Israeli or American or other intervention, that would be a setback, not a permanent end to the program. After a period of time, they would regroup and get close to a nuclear weapon again. If that gets stopped again, it starts over again too. This keeps happening until the IRGC is out of power because they can always dig another hole and start again, especially with a little help from their bad-guy friends in Russia, China, and North Korea. So, periodically, as long as the IRGC lasts, it will once again be close to a nuclear weapon and have to be stopped. It got especially close this time significantly because of a little bit of help from another one of their friends: Barack Obama. If this is too abstract and complicated for you, consider an analogy. You really want something, like new shoes or something. You work to get the money to get them, but then when you're close to having enough, something comes up, and you have to spend some of your money. That's a setback, but you keep working because you really want those shoes. Soon, you get close again, but your phone broke, so you have to spend your money to fix it and have to get back to working toward your shoes again later. Each time, you almost have enough money for your shoes. So, you keep almost having your shoes even though you don't have them yet. But you ain't quit, so you'll keep working to get them, and before you know it, you're close again. It works just like that. The IRGC really wants nuclear weapons. Israel and America keep stopping them from getting them, and they face setbacks like having their centrifuges blown up. So they get new centrifuges as soon as they can, put them somewhere new, and get back to it. Before long, they're close again because they want it. Let me try another analogous explanation for the cooked brains out there. Imagine you have an illegal immigrant jihadi cell that wants to do a terrorist attack in New York. They put together a plan, but the cops foil it and arrest some of them. But their parent organization really wants to do it, so they get some more guys and a new plan. The cops foil that too. As long as the parent organization, Muslim Brotherhood or whatever, still operates, the cops keep having to stop imminent terrorist attacks as they find out about them because the organization really wants to do one whether this plan or that plan gets busted or not. See, they got really close to doing a terror attack but faced a setback, so they regrouped and tried again. Then they got set back again, so they regrouped again. It's just like this. Exactly like this. Not at all different than this. I can't believe I have to explain this. I can't believe how fried people's brains are, including smart ex-CIA brains, that they either can't understand this or are willing to pretend they don't understand it for other reasons, publicly, in front of people. President Trump has never once changed his tune on why he struck Iran, either in June of 2025 or in February of 2026, starting the war: "Iran will never have a nuclear weapon." The intelligence suggested that they were getting close to it, along with long-range ballistic missiles. The claim was they were close to final enrichment for enough material for up to eleven warheads, and they might have them within two weeks. Just after Trump struck, they launched some long-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia and proved they had those and that intelligence was correct. For some reason, nobody who is "against the war" is willing to believe that the nuclear material claim, which would arm the missiles, which could hit European capitals, was also true. President Trump has never wavered and is even still doubling down on his reasoning here, which is clear, simple, and to the point. He said it again today, in fact. In all likelihood, it is true, and he did the right thing. That means he did not start the war. Iran did. That means the war was not pointless. It was to prevent the successful completion of nuclear weapons. That means the war that ensued was not pointless either. It is what followed because Iran wasn't happy about it. That means it wasn't Israel's war. It was humanity's war, and America's war too. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. That means Israel didn't drag America into the war. Israel shared intelligence that our own services used and agreed with to inform the strikes. That means the war is America First, if you must use that insufferable, tainted brand to get your brain to do anything. That means the right reaction isn't punishing Trump or adopting more New Right crap. It is to say thank you and to be proud to be an American because your country provided an important service. My frustration with how many people are swallowing this absolutely idiotic New Right, Iranian, Russian propaganda nonsense could not possibly be higher. I cannot believe this has to be explained to people.
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I decided to sleep on JD Vance’s post from yesterday before commenting on it substantively. I have done so, and given it substantial thought. My verdict? Here is what I believe that post actually was saying: “Yeah we lost the election big time. But it’s not my fault, it’s the fault of the guy who made me who I am, and to whom I owe my entire political career. If only everybody had listened to me everything would have been OK. Oh yeah, I’m specifically throwing my boss under the bus, but I am also impliedly throwing Rubio and Hegseth under the bus too because I want to be President. No, I’m not going to talk about the way my lunatic belief that the Iranian mullahs could be reasoned with is really what brought us to this point. I’m also not going to talk about how my hatred of Israel and alliance with fellow Israel-haters and groyper-adjacent loons like Tucker chases away far more voters than it attracts. In other words, I’m not taking responsibility for anything and blaming everybody else. And I’m dropping this literally hours after the election is over so I can set the narrative now before anybody else has a chance to talk that says I’m the good guy, that MAGA is dead, and that I’m the leader of what comes next. No, I did not coordinate this with Trump, I just told him I’m going to do it. And he will say it’s OK because if he does not he’ll get savaged with reports that he has lost control of the Presidency, which was kind of what I wanted. It’s DC. Loyalty does not matter. Vote for me for President.” Does loyalty matter? I believe it does, because if someone is disloyal to the man who made them, they will also be disloyal to the voters who put them into office. My 2c. (And yes, if Vance is the nominee I’ll still vote for him over communist jihadists, but now is the time to debate these kinds of issues inside our own movement.)
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Yes, I think the administration certainly shares some of the blame. The Iran war has been dragged out for far too long, with bogus attempts to negotiate with a lunatic terrorist regime. Gas is too expensive. So are groceries. Tariffs have destroyed affordability. Of course, some things could've been done better. But I don't think that alone accounts for this absolute landslide, and I don't think it accounts for young white males swinging this hard to the Left or staying home. I think young white men have been under a constant barrage of blackpilled demoralization telling them that Israel runs our government, Trump is blackmailed by the "Epstein class," voting does nothing, everything sucks, and they're powerless. I know because I talk to many of these young men. This thinking is ubiquitous among them. And it's not organic. Also, it doesn't remotely line up with reality. It's an op. A social contagion. Too many podcasters have fallen victim to it, or worse, participated in it. And it's not gaslighting or denying reality to say so.
Joel, have you ever specifically lectured black women for voting almost exclusively for Democrats? Also, if young white men are angry at the Republican Party and Trump, might the Republican Party and Trump bear some blame for that or is it all the fault of “conspiracism” and “anti Semitism”? Is it possible that you might have gotten the affordability issue totally wrong and actually young men are indeed getting screwed by this economy and are holding their political leaders accountable for it? At what point do you guys engage in some of the self reflection that you are encouraging in others?
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#BREAKING: Muslim Brotherhood's official website celebrates Abdul El-Sayed's win in Michigan.
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Contrary to the claims of @JDVance, data from NORC's Civic Health and Elections project appears to show that the main driver of voting difference was not Trump voters who showed up but decided to vote Democrat instead. This played a role but it ended up being quite minor. According to an NBC exit poll, ~6% of 2024 Trump voters supported a Democratic House candidate in 2026 vs ~3% of Harris voters defecting the other way), for a net of only around a ~3% difference from turncoat voters. The major difference came from the surge in turnout among those who simply didn't vote in 2024. They showed up, and they heavily voted with the Dems. Is it possible that JD has better data? Maybe, but then he should make it publicly available (along with the stated reasons and methodology) if his goal is to convince others.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
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🚨EXCLUSIVE: Muslim Brotherhood Celebrates Abdul El-Sayed's Senate Win🚨 Abdel Mawgoud al-Dardiri, a leading figure in the Brotherhood's Egyptian branch, hailed the Michigan win as a model for Muslims working "from within the political system" on behalf of the "Islamic world"
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Is there a reason he needs to protect the privacy of these “pollsters” and their polls? Show us the data, JD. Show us the polls. Where are the polls showing those being the top 4 issues and who did the polling? Why keep it a secret?
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
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Is there a reason you need to protect the privacy of these “pollsters” and their polls? Show us the data, JD. Show us the polls. Where are the polls showing those being the top 4 issues and who did the polling? Why keep it a secret?
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