Hugh Collie

Isaias is beginning to ramp up in the Gulf, and this one will be a big problem this weekend. Let’s break down the threats one by one. Wind: The strongest winds will be near the core. Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane Thursday and could peak near 110 mph before landfall. The exact spot will shift, but right now anywhere from Gulfport to Panama City is in play. Winds will weaken as Isaias moves inland, but tropical storm conditions could spread well into Alabama. Expect tropical storm conditions along the coast by midday Friday, with hurricane conditions possible late Friday. Tornadoes: I’m expecting a significant tornado threat on the eastern side of the track, including the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Georgia. Flooding: Three areas stand out: near the center of the track, the southern slopes of the mountains in Georgia and the Carolinas, and coastal South Carolina. Rainfall of 3–6 inches is expected along the central Gulf Coast, locally up to 10. Much of the Southeast and the Carolinas could see 1–3 inches, locally 5. Surge: The worst surge will be just east of where the center makes landfall. The NHC currently forecasts 5–7 ft from Ocean Springs to Indian Pass, including Mobile Bay. Models that keep strengthening Isaias up to landfall could push isolated spots toward 8 ft. Others weaken it slightly, which would mean closer to 3–5 ft at peak. Bottom Line: Now is the time to prepare for a LANDFALLING HURRICANE this weekend. Take the necessary precautions and stay tuned for the latest!