Hannah M Ridge

The rapidly shifting MAGA discourse on Israel is bigger than it may seem at first: Tucker Carlson’s pointing the finger at Isreal’s Mossad as being behind Epstein’s operation is getting much attention, although this connection is being made widely in parts of the MAGA world. But the increasing split on Israel within MAGA goes well beyond anger over the Epstein files. It’s been brewing over several issues: Gaza, the Iran war, and foreign aid – as well as anger over the return of neocon influence. On Gaza, much of the attention has focused on the Democrats who have dramatically turned away from Israel, with every major poll showing this trend. But what has been missed is that Republican views of Israel have also become more negative since the Gaza war, with a recent Pew poll showing that the biggest shift nationally has been among Republicans under the age of 50, going from 35% negative views of Israel in 2022 to 50% negative in 2025. The Iran war and the return of loud neocon voices pushing for further US military involvement has angered many in the MAGA world as has been widely reported. Connected to this is the increasing cost of supporting Israel, reaching well over $20 billion since the Gaza war started, at a time when MAGA world expects budget cuts, while many Trump supporters are struggling. Carlson connecting the criticism of Israel with broader suppression of free speech - something that the left has been protesting - seems to also resonate with many on the right. The strongest remaining voices of support for Israel on the right are Evangelical Christians. But there has been evidence that support for Israel among younger Evangelicals has also been dropping in recent years, and the number of Evangelicals in America has been declining. Now, some in MAGA world are publicly challenging the very assumption that support for the modern state of Israel is biblically mandated. It all adds up to an unexpected vigorous divide on Israel within MAGA. How all this will affect Trump’s own policies – or, in turn, how Trump himself will impact the debate – remains unclear, but it will be fascinating to watch.