A humble writer, a proud AI artist, & a cocky cook (according to family reviews). The biggest lesson humanity has learned is: it never learns from its lessons.
Joined August 2009
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Freedom! Red Beauty — The Midnight Run
(Video made with Grok Imagine) #AIart #GrokImagine #HotLesson
🤖 Made with AI
Hey, friends in Japan, does anyone know exactly where this place is?
Such heavy snow in November? Is it real or AI?
Double-Booked by the Future
If AI's a monster, it'll take my job away,
If AI's a bubble, it'll take my savings when it breaks.
Now we got the worst combo anybody could create,
Lost the paycheck Tuesday, lost the portfolio Wednesday.
Work gone. Cash gone. Everybody say "progress."
Boss bought an AI, market bought a hot mess.
Welcome to tomorrow, hope you like stress,
The future came early and it failed both tests.
Back in the day they sold a shiny fantasy,
"AI will help humanity, boost productivity."
Sounds amazing, I agree, no profanity,
Until the software starts applying for your salary.
Customer support? AI.
Junior coding? AI.
Designing logos? AI.
Writing emails? AI.
You spent ten years climbing up the corporate staircase,
Then a chatbot showed up and took your parking space.
The CEO smiles on the quarterly call,
"Efficiency's improving" is the phrase they install.
Translation from corporate to a language more direct:
"We found a cheaper worker and the worker's silicon-based."
The machines getting smarter every quarter, every day,
Knowledge workers realizing they are not as far away
From the factory workers that automation swept away.
Now everybody nervous.
And reasonably so.
If AI's a monster, it'll take my job away,
If AI's a bubble, it'll take my savings when it breaks.
Now we got the worst combo anybody could create,
Lost the paycheck Tuesday, lost the portfolio Wednesday.
Work gone. Cash gone. Everybody say "progress."
Boss bought an AI, market bought a hot mess.
Welcome to tomorrow, hope you like stress,
The future came early and it failed both tests.
Then comes Wall Street with another storyline,
Every company adding "AI" and watching stocks fly.
No profits? That's okay.
No cash flow? That's alright.
Just put "artificial intelligence" somewhere in the slide.
Investors throw money like confetti in the air,
Valuations reaching altitudes that need repair.
Data centers everywhere, chips stacked to the sky,
Everybody getting rich, at least on PowerPoint.
The bubble keeps expanding till reality arrives,
Revenue asks questions that the hype can't survive.
Then boom.
The music stops.
The exits get crowded.
Retirement accounts suddenly looking less proud.
The worker checks LinkedIn.
The investor checks the chart.
It's the same person doing both parts.
Here's the punchline nobody wanted to hear:
If AI was fake, maybe jobs were safe.
If AI was small, maybe markets don't break.
But what if it's powerful...
and overpriced?
What if both sides of the warning are right?
If AI's a monster, it'll take my job away,
If AI's a bubble, it'll take my savings when it breaks.
Turns out we found a future with a very special trait:
The robots do the working,
The crash does the taking.
Work gone. Cash gone. Everybody say "wow."
The future isn't coming.
It's here.
Right now.
AI is the first technology that might replace your job before wiping out your portfolio. 🎤🤖📉🔥
From a little girl waiting for her older brother after school to a lovely younger sister showered with love. ❤️
黑风横扫财神殿 群雄坐困神机城
却说上一回书讲到：
万圣鬼节方过，华尔街钱潮忽然倒卷，铜牛失色，群商失魂；那七大科技仙门，原本高踞九霄，受万人膜拜，不料一夜之间雷火乱降，股海翻波。
看官道这是何故？
若只说是中东烽烟，未免看得浅了。
若只说是波斯战云，亦不过皮毛耳。
今日且说，这场黑风，实乃天地大运轮转之兆也。
话说西洋有一座城，名曰：
神机城。
城中修炼一种奇术，唤作：
大衍天机术。
又称：
人工神机。
此术自二〇二三年以来，横扫天下。
一时间：
云海仙门争相筑塔；
金银商会疯狂输财；
四海散修争买符箓；
但凡名字里带个“AI”者，身价十倍百倍暴涨。
真个是：
昨日草庐无人问，今朝仙府万金求。
那几年间，财神殿银流如海。
年轻修士们从未见过熊灾。
他们只知：
逢跌便买。
买后便涨。
涨后再买。
人人自谓天命在身。
忽有一日。
财神殿深处，一位白发老叟掐指长叹。
左右问：
“老仙何故忧愁？”
老叟道：
“盛极必衰，此理古今同也。”
众人不信。
老叟便指向神机城说道：
“汝等只看见天机术法，却不见背后耗费。”
“修此神术，须筑万丈云宫，耗百万灵石；需吞江河之电火；需养亿万数据精怪。”
“如今诸仙门竞相扩张，城楼越筑越高，债山越堆越重。”
“待到香火不及预期时，便知什么叫万丈高楼一夜倾。”
众皆大笑而散。
转眼到了二〇二六年仲夏。
怪事渐生。
先是许多小仙门无故暴跌。
有者腰斩。
有者折去七成。
有者九死一生。
但神机七宗依旧撑着天穹。
于是众人便说：
“不过洗盘耳。”
“牛市未死。”
“黄金时代方才开始。”
“每次悲观皆是买点。”
种种豪言，如雪片一般飞遍天下。
却说华尔街有一座酒楼。
名曰：
多头楼。
楼中昼夜高歌。
楼外却有一瘦书生冷眼旁观。
书生姓熊名慎。
有人问他：
“天下皆牛，你为何独熊？”
熊慎饮尽一杯冷酒，道：
“尔等只看见战争将终。”
“却未看见衰退将至。”
“尔等只看见利率回落。”
“却未看见失业将起。”
“尔等只看见AI盛宴。”
“却未看见赴宴者已开始借债度日。”
众人大笑。
有商贾拍桌喝道：
“波斯战火若熄，大盘必飞。”
熊慎摇头。
“波斯只是火星。”
“柴薪却堆满天下。”
“乌东战事四载未平。”
“诸国债台高筑。”
“消费渐疲。”
“失业未至而已，非不会至也。”
此言一出。
满楼嘘声。
竟无人相信。
再说神机城深处，有一座未开山门。
名曰：
玄机阁。
世人皆知其术法高深。
传说一旦正式开门纳贡，便是近年来最大的一场募资盛会。
各路豪客皆摩拳擦掌。
纷纷留银待购。
因此市面资金不断回笼。
众仙门流动之气渐弱。
山雨欲来。
偏在此时。
科技诸宗财报不及预期者渐多。
资本商会开始怀疑：
“这些天机术，到底何时赚钱？”
此一问。
犹如屠龙刀出鞘。
天下俱惊。
因为以前无人敢问。
有词为证：
满堂宾客醉仙酿，谁问银根几许长。昨夜神坛香火盛，今朝账册见寒霜。
最可怕者尚非股灾。
而是人心之变。
以往每逢大跌。
众修士齐声高呼：
“抄底！”
如今每逢反弹。
众修士争相逃命。
这便叫：
信心倒卷。
昔年财神立于前；
今朝风险跟于后。
昔年人人问：
“还能涨多少？”
如今人人问：
“还能跌多久？”
虽只一念之差。
却是牛熊两界。
阴阳分野。
且说西方政坛暗流涌动。
二〇二八帝位之争渐近。
各路王侯厉兵秣马。
有人主张扩大天机术。
有人则言：
“神机城吞噬电力太巨，土地太广，须加约束。”
各大仙门闻之色变。
因为他们赌的并非一年。
而是十年。
若未来天时改变。
今日估值便如空中楼阁。
风来即散。
更有隐士高人。
富可敌国。
却忽然远走南疆之地。
世人莫测其意。
有人说其避税。
有人说其避祸。
有人说其观天象而行。
真真假假。
无人能断。
但江湖之中却多了一句传言：
聪明人开始找退路时，愚蠢人却还在冲锋。
这一日。
纽约城阴云密布。
铜牛垂首。
纳指震荡。
万千散修望着账户中不断消散的数字。
恍如望见自己的青春。
有人怒骂。
有人祈祷。
有人彻夜不眠。
更有人第一次明白：
原来市场并非永远奖励乐观之人。
有时候。
活下来的人。
比预测对的人更重要。
说书人至此，拍醒木一下，叹道：
天下兴亡有数。
牛熊轮转无情。
昔日人人笑空头胆小。
来日或许人人羡空头有粮。
若真如熊慎所言，失业潮起，债山崩塌，神机城香火骤减，则这一场AI盛世，究竟是开天辟地之序章，还是惊天泡影之终曲？
此事暂且按下。
且听下回分解。
黑风一夜卷金台，
万亿钱潮倒海来。
神机城高云作壁，
铜牛角断月成灰。
人间最怕繁华尽，
盛世原从警处开。
若问明朝谁不败，
且看寒江独钓回。
列位看官，股市如江湖，英雄豪杰未必死于刀兵，往往亡于得意二字。欲知玄机阁开山之后，天下资本如何重新排兵布阵；诸侯竞逐二〇二八帝位，又将如何左右神机城气运，且听下回分解……
Many younger investors may experience the worst bear market of their life in the next few years, it actually began in May/June 2026 already for many stocks. This could be a once in 20-30 year event - you may get one of these opportunities in your productive lifetime.
Everything is lining up perfectly- we have a small window here for a small rally given seasonal window before Anthropic IPO given how washed out many $IWM names are - but dont count on that even. The safer play is not counting on that small rally but being nimble if it happens to participate.
Since May 2026 and now as we head into the Anthropic IPO positioning should be about survival. Hunker down try to keep high cash balance (50-70%+) cash and have very low expectations or optimism. Play your cards right next few years and you can come out many years later a lot better off.
Equities optimists will get obliterated like never before. Understand that the golden age of optimism is over for equity investors. Many stocks are down 40-80% before the downturn has even metastasized. Using negative investor sentiment as some kind of signal for a contrarian rally is risky in this environment until something changes materially.
People keep holding hope that Iran war will end, but the issues go much deeper than Iran war. Ukraine war is now on its 4th year by the way.
The unemployment cycle has not even begun we are almost certain to see unemployment go over 5/6% in the coming years which will be the beginning of the next crisis historically.
Look at the timing of when the AI trade will bust then look ahead to the 2028 election that Dems will likely win. They are strongly anti-ai and data centers.
Everything is there if you choose to see it. Warsh is much more hawkish than people want to believe also. There is a reason Peter Theil has left the country for Argetina.
$QQQ $SPY $SPX
Can't agree more, it is a trap.
毫无疑问，这就是一个巨大的陷阱。
“内部人士是否设下了完美的牛市陷阱？
当消息传出民主党同时赢得众议院和参议院时，期货市场起初下跌。
随后标普500指数出现大幅上涨。
昨日收盘时，该指数上涨1.56%，市值新增逾1万亿美元。
但今天市场开盘后，标普500却暴跌3.84%，在短短1.5小时内蒸发约2.7万亿美元。这是自2025年4月“解放日”关税崩盘以来最糟糕的一天。
昨日整个上涨行情已彻底消失。
看来昨天的推高只是为了制造抛售流动性。”
Did insiders pull off a perfect bull trap?
When news broke that Democrats had won both the House and the Senate, futures dropped at first.
Then the S&P 500 went vertical.
It closed yesterday up 1.56%, adding over $1 trillion in market value.
Then the market opened today.
The S&P 500 crashed -3.84%, wiping out about $2.7 trillion in just 1.5 hour, It’s worst day since the Liberation Day tariff crash in April 2025.
Yesterday's entire rally is gone.
Looks like the yesterday pump was just to create exit liquidity.
The midgame is over.
The big war is coming.
1. Reduce investments.
2. Save money and food.
3. Cherish the people who love you.
话说西历二千二十六年十一月初二日，乃美国中期选举前一日。是日华尔街之上，晨光初露，三大指数齐齐上扬。道指开盘即涨近一分，标普与纳斯达克亦各有斩获，一时之间，交易大厅人声鼎沸，买卖双方争相入市。有投资者高声道：“昨夜油价暴跌七分有余，乃因美伊和谈有望，海峡或可重开。通胀压力稍缓，吾等正好趁势抄底！”
却说油价之跌，非虚言也。西德州中质原油一度下探九十六美元，布伦特原油亦跌至百零四美元左右，皆因华盛顿与德黑兰之间，外交斡旋风声渐起，市场憧憬冲突缓和。能源股应声大跌，而消费、银行、建材等板块则趁势上扬。亚马逊股价一度大涨四分有余，英伟达、谷歌等科技股亦先涨后稳，似有反弹之势。
午前时分，道指曾涨逾五百点，标普涨幅一度达一分有余，纳斯达克亦回升至二万五千六百余点。众交易员交口称赞：“十月大跌之后，终于见底！选举在即，市场或将先稳后进。”
然而好景不长。午后未几，科技股突然反转。英伟达由早盘上涨二分六厘，转而跌去一分三厘；谷歌母公司Alphabet亦由涨二分六厘，最终收跌三分厘。甲骨文因计划增发股票并发行债券、筹资二百亿美元以支撑人工智能建设，股价大跌近九分。美满电子科技宣布以千余亿美元巨资收购光模块公司，双方股价双双重挫。人工智能相关板块再度承压，标普科技指数跌去二分七厘。
有老经纪商抚须叹道：“早盘之涨，乃油价下跌所赐，非科技股真正企稳。诸巨擘仍在烧钱筑台，自由现金流未正，投资者心有余悸。明日便是选举，参众两院归属未定，市场岂敢大胆？”
年轻交易员应声：“正是。多数个股其实上涨，只是科技权重太高，一跌便拖累全盘。道指因传统产业支撑，终得上涨四分一厘，收于五万一千九百八十三点九八；标普却跌去五分一厘，收于七千五百四十一点四零；纳斯达克跌去一分零七厘，收于二万五千一百六十四点三二。先涨后跌，恰如过山车一般。”
是夜，选举前夕，华尔街灯火依然，然人心已不复午前之喜。苹果公司即将公布季报，盘后股价已有波动。有人低声道：“选举结果若出乎意料，科技股或再受冲击；油价若反弹，能源股又将生变。此局如棋，步步杀机。”
有诗为证：
初二先涨后跌惊，
油价暴跌科技冷。
道指独涨标普跌，
纳指再下一城中。
选举在即人心紧，
世事多变，晨喜暮忧。欲知明日选举与后市如何，且听下回分解。