🏡 Dave

Bottom line: - EVs are 6.4% market share in the US for Q3 2026. - FSD is basically available only in US with just 1.74M users - RoboTaxi is limited to 7 US cities - CyberCab is in 1 US city with 300 cars People, especially in the US are not ready to give up their large gas SUV and gas pickup truck to buy EVs. Let alone giving up on owning a car with steering wheels and pedals. But now, Tesla is betting that people won’t even want to own their cars and just summon a small electric 2seater to go everywhere. Not gonna happen, especially for families not living in apartments in a dense city. How are we expected to believe Tesla will grow to 5M/year cars sold in 2030 when they’re only selling Model Y/3 with no new consumer products in sight?! I will never understand why Tesla can’t build and sell amazing cars to customers WHILE AT THE SAME TIME building autonomous CyberCab RoboTaxis. The world and Giga Texas are big enough for both. Keep building cool products the people want. $tsla

In light of this week’s events, I’m a reminded of a famous quote attributed to Charlie Munger: “Smart men go broke three ways: liquor, ladies, and leverage.”

In honor of the Jaguars making it to the AFC title game, we bring you the best interview in Jaguars history: A reporter asked a local woman about the team last year

Tesla just confirmed it will end Cybertruck production in 2027. I think it's one of the best case studies we have on managing customer expectations. Tesla received more than 1 million reservations for the Cybertruck. Our best estimate puts the real number closer to 2 million. That's demand most automakers can only dream of. Tesla delivered about 70,000 trucks in three years. You can point to a lot of factors: the design, the production ramp, quality issues, the brand's politics, competition. They all played a role. But they're small compared to the main one. Tesla promised a $40,000 truck with up to 500 miles of range. It delivered an $80,000 truck with about 300 miles of range. Those 1 million+ people didn't reserve the truck Tesla ended up building. They reserved a promise. When the product showed up at twice the price with 40% less range, most of them simply walked away. And you can't blame them. The lesson applies well beyond EVs: the expectations you set become the bar you're judged against. Overpromising can get you a huge order book, but it only turns into revenue if you deliver. Otherwise, you've just built a list of disappointed customers. Under-promise and over-deliver isn't a cliché. Tesla's Cybertruck is what happens when you do the opposite.

Hopefully @Rivian autonomy driving catches up. This might be where I will be going when the Cybertruck needs replacing. I am so sad and disappointed by the announcement from @elonmusk this morning. Cybercab is not the answer for most of Americans.

My FSD subscription ended last January, and this isn’t Tesla Autopilot. I installed a comma four in February, eight months of Level 2 ADAS I own outright in my Model Y. This is sunnypilot, an open source fork of @comma_ai's openpilot. No longer renting a closed system.

I don't even know what to say. 32,000ft to 900ft in less than a minute.