Macro economist | Sport & nature enthusiast
London
Joined October 2011
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My cycle route in London just hit the front page of the FT, unfortunately for a worrying reason. Never thought we would experience such heat and dryness here. Also thinking of the folks in the Bordeaux and Madrid regions.
Imagine in how much better space SA would be if the government was as focused on growth as the SA Reserve Bank is on ensuring low inflation. And btw, locking in low inflation is an important contribution to longer-term growth.
Based on tneir performance last week and so far today, Australia will test the Boks on 16 August. Set up for a proper match.
Those commentators who argue the SA economy would suffer from a 3% inflation target could perhaps rather debate on how government, business, labour & communities can contribute to achieving such a goal. Think that would be more useful than dismissing the idea of 3%.
Very much in the camp who says Wiaan Mulder should have been given the opportunity to break Brian Lara's record for the highest score in test cricket. If it was Australia, Eng or India, have little doubt they would have gone for it.
Driving back to Cape Town from Joburg yesterday, the Northern Cape landscape with dark winter clouds above it was spectacular. It was cold outside the entire way.
So, is SA now becoming the 0.5% economy?
Stats SA's revisions show that real GDP growth was 0.5% y/y in Q4 2024, calendar year 2024, and also in Q1 2025.
Although key SA mineral exports to the US are excluded from the latest tariff hikes, downgrades to global growth as a result of the multiple rounds of tariff increases will weigh on the demand for SA goods, incl minerals. Gold provides a shield during these uncertain times.
Read the latest Media Statement: Key South African mineral exports to the US excluded from damaging tariffs, says Minerals Council South Africa
Download the media statement here: bit.ly/3FSGG5u
#MiningMatters
Not for the first time, the sentiment expressed at Davos in January says little of what to expect in the rest of the year. Like the front page of The Economist, Davos sentiment is sometimes a contra-indicator
Not commenting on likelihood here, but in theory, the SA budget could pass in Parliament without DA, MKP, or EFF support. The ANC + other smaller parties have 216 (54%) out of 400 seats (votes) in Parliament.
Unless misquoted, remaIns baffling how some local commentators subscribe near-term rand moves to mostly SA developments. Last week case in point. Weaker dollar/stronger euro surely biggest driver. SA GDP print & current account data secondary. Combo of offshore/local drivers.
Struggling with this new world where someone with an honours degree (with economics subjects) but no formal political science education or any practical work experience being employed in an economist/political analyst role can market and call themselves a 'political economist'.