Analyst | Researcher | Strategist | Systems Thinker. Interested in the UK as a complex system. Using AI to help connect the dots and provide clarity.
South West UK
Joined February 2011
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Over the last few weeks I've been testing AI video, to see how well it works as a new storytelling medium. I'm not a trained filmmaker, just someone who enjoys telling stories with whatever tools are available.
I wasn't going to put anything on here yet... or ever. Partly because it isn't as polished as I'd like, and partly because I wanted more than one film to offer.
Then Burnham announced 'Your First Home', and the subject of my first film suddenly felt very current. It's about some of the consequences of interfering in the housing market, and more broadly, monetary policy. So I thought I'd share it.
The debate about younger people and housing still gets reduced to cancelling Netflix and giving up avocado toast. The reality is, the market is so warped and financialised that, for a lot of younger people, a roof over their head is increasingly becoming harder, if not impossible to achieve.
Hopefully this gives some idea of the position some people are already in. And why harebrained schemes like 'Your First Home', which are simply designed to prop up asset prices, are the wrong answer.
I've put the YouTube link in the comments. If you're interested in seeing future films, subscribe to the channel.
Anything that does get used for "investment" will just get wasted anyway. Just take a look at the shocking state of the public projects portfolio.
Yes, we should reduce the size of the state. It's getting in the way of this country doing anything worthwhile.
“I think taxes are quite high.”
Housing Secretary Angela Rayner talks to @lewis_goodall ahead of Wednesday’s Budget.
Where's the investment?
I just see hundreds of billions going into welfare and debt interest.
'Taxes are high because we need to invest in Britain', says Angela Rayner
lbc.co.uk/article/taxes-high…
Validation... finally.
JUST IN: Scientists reveal the optimal dance moves men should make to attract female mates.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The "JUST IN" claim refers to a 2010 Northumbria University study, not recent research.
royalsociety.org/news/2010/attr…
livescience.com/8595-study-men…
Using AI agents for the first time is a genuine red-pill moment. It’s a moment where you’re filled with excitement about the potential you have at your fingertips, but at the same time, you realise your role in that potential is diminishing.
I suspect many of those who still believe AI won’t fundamentally disrupt the labour market simply haven’t experienced what happens when you get agents working autonomously on your behalf. And also likely overestimate what the average knowledge-based role entails.
There’s something quite profound about watching work you once had to do yourself being carried out by AI, across multiple applications, with remarkably little intervention, and at a speed you could never come close to competing with.
Once you’ve experienced it, it’s very difficult to look at the future of work in the same way again.
I'm using AI more agentically now (meaning: I'm training it to do tasks for me across multiple applications)
And 2 things are immediately apparent to me:
1) this is so easy & valuable, it's going to change the world
2) companies are going to need WAY fewer human workers (and I'm not even factoring in the robots yet)
I think both the benefits AND costs of A.I. will be much greater than most imagine right now
Josh Hunt retweeted
Our alternative Budget: £150bn a year of lower spending at full value, and £97bn of tax cuts that wait for it.
A £15,000 personal allowance, a £60,000 higher-rate threshold, no inheritance tax or stamp duty.
None starts until the OBR forecast shows the saving that pays for it.
The full briefing, 13 pages, free to download⬇️
We’re living in a different world now. Everything from how we live our lives to how we work is changing rapidly and drastically.
We’ve gone through a period in time where we’ve not had to concern ourselves with a lot of this stuff. But now we’re going to have to because things are getting real very quickly. Cybersecurity as an example, at a personal and household level, is going to be something people have to take far more seriously.
I don’t want to come across as alarmist or too dramatic. But the world we’ve known is inverting and the volatility we’ve already experienced over the last few years is just the beginning.
We’re entering into a period where things we’ve taken for granted start to become far less reliable.
Decline is a choice. It’s been legislated.
We can't have cheap energy because the government has decided against it. We can't have functioning borders because the government has decided against it. We can't have decent paying jobs because the government has decided against it. We can't have safe communities because the government has decided against it. We can't have viable armed forces because the government has decided against it. I struggle to think of any major problem afflicting this country that isn't a conscious choice of the people who rule us.
I hear the army and care homes are recruiting.
BREAKING: Barclays cutting 5,000 jobs in AI-led efficiency drive
trib.al/PslgiEk
It’ll all come crashing down sooner or later. May not even be the national debt that does it.
In truth, we spend a lot of time on here debating how to get out of this mess. But the reality is, there’s no fixing it. Maybe AI renders much of this meaningless as we surf our way into the singularity. That’s probably the best case… but I’m not convinced yet.
On our current trajectory, all we can really do is try to make the inevitable less painful and destructive. The trouble is, even that modest ambition would require us to behave in ways we’ve consistently failed to throughout history.
Things were much easier when we ruled an empire and controlled the game. Now Britain is just one of many participants, and we’ve made a pretty rough start to the 21st-century edition.
If we’re going to find a foothold, we need new players. Not the same tired old bullshit from a worn-out political establishment that’s out of ideas and running out of friends.
If we want a fighting chance, we need to start tearing shit up. Play to our strengths. And play our own game.
What did @elonmusk say? Millions/billions of these walking among us?
The future is going to be wild.
Josh Hunt retweeted
👀👇 @KemiBadenoch @griffitha @DamianPudner @iealondon @DanielJHannan @RollingHedge @GreatBritishTT @Telegraph @CityAM @iAmJoshHunt @DanielPriestley
A thorough analysis of the scope of capital departure from Britain by Brian Monteith in the Telegraph.
"Available evidence suggests the scale of the capital loss is likely around £200bn to £250bn in just two years," explains Monteith, with copious evidence.
"An obvious example of business displacement is the quadrupling of the number of British members of the Dubai Chamber of Commerce, from 2,402 active Chamber members at the end of 2020 to 10,334 in March 2026. While some of these cases will involve British companies establishing a presence in Dubai, most are likely to be new operations in Dubai run by British citizens".
"Of course", notes Monteith, "those who have left will no longer be expanding their wealth in the UK. Those who would otherwise have stayed to build their businesses will be doing it elsewhere, and fewer will arrive to build wealth here. In the long run, this is probably the most significant factor".
"All of [the anti-wealth] policies will have to be reversed by a future government if truly wealthy individuals are to be attracted back and those becoming successful here in future are not encouraged to also leave. Full abolition of inheritance tax is by far the most sensible policy".
People don't seem to get this yet. I think it's just starting to dawn on European leaders, UK included.
Something tells me Brits and Europeans aren't going to be all that keen on the terms of their vassal status. Better than the alternative though, given the political class we have in this country and across the continent.
That's one way of getting military recruitment numbers up I guess.
Job vacancies fall as small firms cut back on recruitment bbc.in/3WjBZK2
Based purely on observations across my own network, it’s extremely tough out there right now. People I’d never expect to be out of work are struggling at the moment. I don’t think it’s just AI. I think the economy is in much worse shape than we’re being told.
Job vacancies fall below 700,000 for first time in over five years bit.ly/4hWPc45
Part of me is beginning to wonder whether we’re actually going to see a more sensible budget than first expected from Healey.
If this is true, it’s a wise move. And if there’s some spending restraint, maybe even cuts in the budget, we may see some favourable market reactions in the near term. Would give him some breathing space. Not much… but some.
John Healey has rejected calls to increase capital gains tax in his first budget amid concerns that doing so would damage economic growth and hinder investment
Senior allies of Andy Burnham, including several cabinet ministers, have been pressing for a rise in capital gains tax on the sale of second homes, shares and other assets to help repair the public finances
However, the chancellor has ruled this out after warnings that it could ultimately cost the government money if wealthy individuals left the UK or deferred selling assets
It means that the biggest “revenue raiser” in the budget will be a tax raid on banks, which will be used to help fund a targeted and temporary package of support on the cost of living. Healey will also reduce the government’s fiscal headroom — a buffer against future events — from £23bn to around £15bn
Healey signalled his approach to capital gains in a speech last month, when he spoke about the importance of businesses making profits
He said: “I want to see this country as a country of wealth creation. I want our government decisions and policies to raise the levels of confidence, and investment, and profit in British business.”
Lord O’Neill of Gatley, a former Goldman Sachs economist and an ally of Burnham, has previously warned that increasing capital gains tax would be “stupid”. He welcomed the decision not to increase it.
He told The Times: “If this is what happens it’s eminently sensible and just what’s needed to keep the improving momentum in the economy going. As I have said a number of times, raising capital gains tax would send very much the wrong message to business.”
Chancellor rejects calls to raise capital gains tax in autumn budget
thetimes.com/article/b259153…