ICYMI: Behold mighty #MELISSA in #Jamaica. High-end Category 5. Possibly the most intense #hurricane to make landfall in North America. And the fiercest of all the hurricanes I've witnessed. WATCH: youtu.be/siq-DdmBUIY

Wow, #Taiwan really did a number on #Typhoon #CHAMPI. Lol. It's always that way. Putting a typhoon over Taiwan is like sticking it in a blender. Structural meltdown. #chopsuey

AI models have been brought down to earth—just when everyone was getting worshippy about them. For days, physical models insisted #Typhoon #CHAMPI would hit Taiwan while Google DeepMind insisted it would cleanly miss. CHAMPI is now clobbering Taiwan. Ouchies for Google DeepMind.

#Tyhoon #CHAMPI is passing very close to #Japan's Yaeyama Islands. Wind reports so far are robust—stronger than was reported on Guam: Hateruma 56 knots gust 83; Iriomote-jima 50 knots gust 83; Ishigaki-jima 47 knots gust 85. @EarthUncutTV is on Ishigaki. Follow him.

Cat-2 #Typhoon #CHAMPI is plodding NW. It looks like the center is going to thread between #Taiwan & Ishigaki-jima #Japan (pink)—probably very close to Yonaguni-jima (yellow), an island which in past typhoons has measured some of the highest winds ever recorded in Japan

Gorgeous. Overwhelmed by the structural perfection. So hawt. #JOSEPHINE

Super #Typhoon #CHAMPI is trekking across the open Pacific with estimated intensity at a whopping 160 knots/895 mb. That's up there with MELISSA when it hit Jamaica last year. An extreme specimen. It'll likely impact #Japan's Ryukyu Islands in a few days at much lower intensity.

As others have pointed out (like @EarthUncutTV), there've been several recent battles between "traditional" physical models & AI models—& AI models have been mostly winning. Here's a new one: Euro ENS & HRES (orange/yellow) plow Super #Typhoon #CHAMPI into Taiwan; Google DeepMind (blue) recurves it into Japan. This is strong bifurcation: there'll be a winner & a loser.

I might need to make this my cover photo.

Crazy-hawt core. Almost perfect eyewall, surrounded by distinct moating. Extremely sexy structure. 🔥 Super #Typhoon #CHAMPI

Cat-1 #Hurricane #TRUDY will scrape along the Colima & Jalisco coasts today & tomorrow. While core is modeled to stay offshore, coastal locations could get rough conditions. There's a Hurricane Warning from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. Be ready in case TRUDY deviates to the E.

IR images often make hurricanes/typhoons look larger than they are at the surface. Based on this image, you'd bet money the S end of Guam was getting raked by #Typhoon #CHAMPI's eyewall. Nope. It was a clean miss.

And that’s a hard miss. A near miss—but a hard miss. #Typhoon #CHAMPI’s intense core passed just S of #Guam, sparing the island a direct impact. But it'll be a soggy, messy start to your Sunday, so have your umbrellas handy. & have caution near large puddles & fallen branches.

#Typhoon #CHAMPI is marching W. Estimated winds are 85 knots & it appears to be strengthening. CHAMPI will pass near or S of #Guam tomorrow. Radar shows a small, tight core just coming into range. If they're lucky, this core—where the strongest winds are—will miss the island.

I just scolded my trusty ChatGPT assistant for not laughing at a sassy joke I made. Let's just say he got the message and got a new attitude.

Two cyclones threaten #Mexico tonight: * #Hurricane #SIMON has reintensified, but it's tiny: hurricane winds extend only 10 mi from center! Models are all over the place. Hard to say where it's going. * TS #TRUDY is strengthening off S coast. It'll become intense hurricane & may threaten Colima or Jalisco late in the week. Getting tingles from this one.

Tiny Cat-1 #Hurricane #SIMON lingers off #Mexico. Future highly uncertain. Computer models show "squashed spider" pattern, with potential tracks in many directions—from out to sea to Los Cabos to Sinaloa. It'll be on weather map for days. Real problem may be next one: #TRUDY.

Foggy morning at Hurricane House. Can't even see the Gulf from the front lawn; the street just disappears into the grey. Ready for another expedition, but no clear candidates at the moment.

#Hurricane #SIMON has weakened to Cat 3 as it continues spinning just offshore of #Mexico. Been getting lots of questions from Puerto Vallarta & Mazatlan, so this post is for my good friends in those cities: * PUERTO VALLARTA: You're still under Hurricane Warning. But many of you are puzzled about why it's been so calm and quiet overnight. The hurricane is very small, so you have to be close to it to feel it. And, it's slowly bending *away* from Puerto Vallarta. I feel fairly confident its dangerous core will stay far from city. But you may get occasional storminess as well as rough surf & coastal flooding for next couple of days. Take precautions. * MAZATLAN: Trouble may be coming. You're under Hurricane Watch. Latest NHC forecast brings SIMON ashore as Cat 1 near city on Wednesday. But, this forecast is uncertain. Models are wild tangle—showing many possibilities—so we can't assume anything. For now, just be ready.