iNEEVIL

I know no one wants to hear bullish ideas and everyone is scared and wants to fling poo at each other... but the Road to Valhalla is getting very close. If global liquidity is the single most dominant macro factor then we MUST focus on that. REMEMBER - THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS ROLLING $10TRN IN DEBT. EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SIDESHOW. THIS IS THE GAME OF THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. Currently the gov shutdown has forced a sharp tightening of liquidity as the TGA builds up with no where to spend it. This is not offset by the ability to drain the Reverse Repo (it is drained). And QT drains it further. This is hitting markets and in particular crypto which is the most liquidity driven. TradiFi asset managers have had one of their worst years of performance vs benchmark and are now having to chase markets and that is allowing tech to be more stable than crypto. 401K flows help too. If this liquidity drain keeps going longer, stocks will get hit hard too. However... As soon as the gov shutdown ends, the Treasury begins spending $250bn to $350bn in a couple of months. QT ends and the balance sheet technically expands. The Dollar will likely begin to weaken again as liquidity begins to flow. Tariff negiotiations will have largely been completed, removing uncertainty Ongoing bill issuance increases, adding more liquidity via bank balance sheets and money market funds (and stable coins). Ongoing rate cuts (we will have economic weakness from the shutdown that will add to the evidence that rates need to come lower but no, there is no recession).. SLR changes free up more of the banks balance sheets allowing for credit expansion. The CLARITY ACT will get passed, giving the crypto regs so deserately needed for large scale adoption by banks, asset managers and businesses overall. The Big Beautiful Bill then kicks in to goose the economy into the midterms. The entire system is now being geared toward a strong economy and strong market in 2026 for these elections. China will continue to expand its balance sheet. Japan will work to strenghten the Yen, and also fiscally stimulate. The ISM will rise as rates fall and tarrif uncertainty drops away. You just need to get through the Window of Pain and The Liquidity Flood lies ahead. Always remember the Dont Fuck This Up rules...and wait out the volatility. Drawdowns like this are common place in bull markets and their job is to test your faith. BTFD if you can. td:dr - When this number goes up, all number go up.