There is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come.

Lviv, Ukraine
Joined December 2008
Ivan Kohut retweeted
A masterclass in strategic manipulation. Trump can now blame any Ukrainian strike on Russian oil refineries, whose purpose is to cripple Russia’s war machine, for rising diesel prices in the US. Not that he hasn’t already done so, but until now, he had no real basis for that claim. Putin just secured protection for his refineries. Meanwhile, Russia itself is rationing diesel. There is no sensible reason to sell diesel to the US when you don’t have enough to meet your own domestic needs, unless the political benefits outweigh the economic logic. When a former KGB agent meets a real estate tycoon who has spent his entire life claiming to be richer than he actually is, this is what you get.
Russia will supply Diesel fuel to America:
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Ivan Kohut retweeted
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead. You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement. I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible. But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier. Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want. Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well. So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it. If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.
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Difficulty Adjustment was probably the main breakthrough in Satoshi's Bitcoin design. 16 years passed, many people still don't get
Fidelity ran the math on miner incentives. For miners to stay incentivized, $BTC needs to be around $370,000 between 2028 and 2032. That is not a price prediction. That is what the economics of the network require. The security of $BTC depends on miners being profitable. Miners being profitable depends on the price. The price has to go there for the network to function. That is not hopium. That is math. @samcallah
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Ivan Kohut retweeted
When I grasped the philosophy of photonics a few years ago, it really captured my interest. Though from an investment standpoint, I was about 2-3 years too early: For decades, "digital" has been the ultimate benchmark for progress. Yet, as we strive to map our reality with ever-increasing precision, we encounter a fundamental paradox: our world does not operate in 0s and 1s. Nature consists of continuous waves, fluid transitions, and infinite nuances. While classical electronics must laboriously translate reality into binary code, photonics speaks the native language of the universe. Every time a digital sensor captures an image or records a sound, an abstraction occurs. Information is chopped up (quantized) to make it digestible for a computer. In this process, context and energy are inevitably lost. Photonics offers a paradigm shift: Light is an electromagnetic wave, just like the analog reality it represents. In traditional IT, analog signals (light, sound, pressure) must be converted into digital data (ADC), processed, and often converted back for output (DAC). This translation costs time and massive amounts of power. The Photonic Advantage: Optical systems can process analog signals "at the speed of light" without conversion. A photonic filter doesn't "calculate" in the traditional sense, it allows light to flow through a specific structure, and the result emerges instantly. By skipping the translation, it achieves unparalleled efficiency. The digital world is limited by its bit-depth and sampling rates. An analog light signal, however, carries theoretically infinite information within its amplitude, phase, and polarization. The Photonic Advantage: In sensing technology, such as spectroscopy or advanced medical imaging, photonics allows for precision far beyond what a standard digital chip can capture. We don't just measure if light is present; we analyze the exact vibration of the light, which interacts directly with the molecular properties of matter. The human brain does not function like a binary processor. It is analog and massively parallel. It is incredibly efficient because it doesn't require billions of rigid switching operations for simple recognition tasks. The Photonic Advantage: Cutting-edge photonic computers aim to mimic this analog, brain-like operation. Light beams can overlap and weight one another simultaneously, much like neurons in a biological brain. This makes photonics the ideal candidate for AI applications that need to recognize patterns rather than just crunch numbers. The Philosophical Edge: Harmony over Fragmentation Digital electronics forces a fragmentation of the world in order to understand it. Photonics, by contrast, harnesses the wave-like properties of nature itself. Digital says: "I will divide the rainbow into 256 distinct steps." Photonics says: "I will use the entire continuous spectrum of the rainbow at once." Conclusion: We live in an analog world. The superiority of photonics lies in the fact that it does not fight or laboriously translate this analogy, it embraces it. By using light as the primary carrier of information, we work in harmony with the physical laws of our environment. Photonics is more than just a technical tool; it is the bridge that reconnects our artificial intelligence with the fluid, continuous reality of nature. Optical interconnects for AI data centers are just the next logical evolution.
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Ivan Kohut retweeted
Judging by my tl there is a growing gap in understanding of AI capability. The first issue I think is around recency and tier of use. I think a lot of people tried the free tier of ChatGPT somewhere last year and allowed it to inform their views on AI a little too much. This is a group of reactions laughing at various quirks of the models, hallucinations, etc. Yes I also saw the viral videos of OpenAI's Advanced Voice mode fumbling simple queries like "should I drive or walk to the carwash". The thing is that these free and old/deprecated models don't reflect the capability in the latest round of state of the art agentic models of this year, especially OpenAI Codex and Claude Code. But that brings me to the second issue. Even if people paid $200/month to use the state of the art models, a lot of the capabilities are relatively "peaky" in highly technical areas. Typical queries around search, writing, advice, etc. are *not* the domain that has made the most noticeable and dramatic strides in capability. Partly, this is due to the technical details of reinforcement learning and its use of verifiable rewards. But partly, it's also because these use cases are not sufficiently prioritized by the companies in their hillclimbing because they don't lead to as much $$$ value. The goldmines are elsewhere, and the focus comes along. So that brings me to the second group of people, who *both* 1) pay for and use the state of the art frontier agentic models (OpenAI Codex / Claude Code) and 2) do so professionally in technical domains like programming, math and research. This group of people is subject to the highest amount of "AI Psychosis" because the recent improvements in these domains as of this year have been nothing short of staggering. When you hand a computer terminal to one of these models, you can now watch them melt programming problems that you'd normally expect to take days/weeks of work. It's this second group of people that assigns a much greater gravity to the capabilities, their slope, and various cyber-related repercussions. TLDR the people in these two groups are speaking past each other. It really is simultaneously the case that OpenAI's free and I think slightly orphaned (?) "Advanced Voice Mode" will fumble the dumbest questions in your Instagram's reels and *at the same time*, OpenAI's highest-tier and paid Codex model will go off for 1 hour to coherently restructure an entire code base, or find and exploit vulnerabilities in computer systems. This part really works and has made dramatic strides because 2 properties: 1) these domains offer explicit reward functions that are verifiable meaning they are easily amenable to reinforcement learning training (e.g. unit tests passed yes or no, in contrast to writing, which is much harder to explicitly judge), but also 2) they are a lot more valuable in b2b settings, meaning that the biggest fraction of the team is focused on improving them. So here we are.
The degree to which you are awed by AI is perfectly correlated with how much you use AI to code.
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Ivan Kohut retweeted
We’ve made major upgrades to X API: • Pay-Per-Use now GA worldwide • XMCP Server + xurl for agents • Official Python & TypeScript XDKs • API Playground - free realistic simulations New releases coming will be a game changer. Start building → docs.x.com 🚢
Try using the X API
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Ivan Kohut retweeted
I spent 100 hours over the past week researching, writing and editing the piece we just put out. It’s a scenario, not a prediction like most of our work. But it was rigorously constructed, dismissing it outright requires the kind of intellectual laziness that tends to get expensive. And we’ve released it for free. Hopefully you enjoy it. citriniresearch.com/p/2028gi…
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Ivan Kohut retweeted
JUNE 2028. The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation. What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ citriniresearch.com/p/2028gi…
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who the fuck is selling btc under 70k? 😅
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Ivan Kohut retweeted
Does using AI increase or decrease alpha for investors? Both! AI acts as an IQ multiplier. Think of it like squaring a number. If your skill is 2.0, you become a 4.0. If your skill is 0.8, you actually drop to 0.64 (because it will reinforce many of your worst ideas). It doesn't fix a lack of talent. It compounds what is already there. Low IQ take : AI levels the playing field because everyone now uses the same tool. Medium* IQ take: AI can't improve your edge, because of mean regression and "next token prediction" leading to mediocre results. *I wante to say low IQ take 2, but realized most people who know what token prediction is are tbh. probably quite smart lol The edge is in the quality of the decision, the sourcing of the data, and the direction of the inquiry. The tool is a force multiplier. The source of power is still the human / YOU. The best investors aren't losing their edge. They are widening the gap because they now have an infinite, autonomous army of agents to execute their superior strategies 24/7.
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LOL Are we saying it right? 'Board of Peace' Or a Board of questionable war criminals Just missing Bush, Sadamn, Hitler, Benjamin and el Duche now.
BREAKING: Russia’s President Putin says President Trump has asked him to join the “Board of Peace.”
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Ivan Kohut retweeted
As a computer scientist it's a truly surreal feeling to see the tidal wave of AI already at our doorstep, yet recognize that most people have not seen it, let alone understood the full magnitude of disruption that will be unleashed on the global economy.
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Ivan Kohut retweeted
Whoa.
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: federalreserve.gov/newsevent…
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Bitcoiners aren't happier because they're rich. They're happier because they stood for something unpopular, got mocked and called crazy, held conviction anyway, and reality proved them right. That validation creates meaning money can't buy. When you assess reality correctly while everyone else is wrong, you learn your judgment works and you can trust yourself. Most people stand for nothing. No conviction. No conflict. They're safe and miserable. Depression is what happens when you never fight for anything that matters. Pick something true and fight for it with words and building, not violence. Accept you might lose. Do it anyway. Reality will tell you if you're right. That process creates meaning whether you win or lose. But when reality proves you right? That's happiness. Bitcoiners figured this out. Stand for something or stay depressed. Those are your options.
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I've just been reminded that the wave of retardedness that recently captured so many people in the "Core side" was already planted by Andreas many years ago. He was among my orange-pills back in 2013, but if I try to be rational and not emotionally attached to my past, I conclude he has been clearly a net negative for Bitcoin education. So many deep fallacies and inconsistencies. My heart wants me to believe it was either the Ethereum fraud or the Coronazi hysteria to "ruin him". My brain let me see they were just likely both revelling his very sloppy intellectual foundations.
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Who the fuck are selling bitcoin under 90K? 😂
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I think there are two causes of such disconnect: 1) market manipulation by large MM 2) hype around AI stocks absorbed vast amount of extra liquidity from the market
The last time bitcoin was here, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower
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New breakthrough quantum algorithm published in @Nature today: Our Willow chip has achieved the first-ever verifiable quantum advantage. Willow ran the algorithm - which we’ve named Quantum Echoes - 13,000x faster than the best classical algorithm on one of the world's fastest supercomputers. This new algorithm can explain interactions between atoms in a molecule using nuclear magnetic resonance, paving a path towards potential future uses in drug discovery and materials science. And the result is verifiable, meaning its outcome can be repeated by other quantum computers or confirmed by experiments. This breakthrough is a significant step toward the first real-world application of quantum computing, and we're excited to see where it leads.
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If you upgrade to v30, you assist this piece of shit
🔥 Bitcoin Core v30.0 just opened a new era for metaprotocols on Bitcoin. With this update, OP_RETURN removes the 80-byte limit, allowing multiple data fragments to be emitted within a single transaction. Plus, the minimum relay fee is reduced to 0.1 sat/vB, making it cheaper to store and execute data directly on L1. What does this mean for the #Atomicals ecosystem and the AVM (Atomicals Virtual Machine)? 👉 The AVM will benefit directly by being able to: Execute more complex contracts directly on Bitcoin, without relying on external layers. Process multiple operations within a single transaction, reducing costs and increasing efficiency. Enable new forms of crowdfunding, staking, and digital economies on Bitcoin L1. Example: A crowdfunding protocol built on AVM could now store all participation, validation, and result data within a single Bitcoin transaction, thanks to the expanded OP_RETURN capacity. @bitmetabtc and the entire #Atomicals ecosystem are right at the inflection point where Bitcoin becomes a programmable layer without losing its L1 purity. 🔶 #Bitcoin #AVM #Bitmeta #Atomicals #ELECTRON #arc20
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