Policy Analyst at Jack D. Gordon Institute, ex-diplomático in Caracas, Ph.D. (FIU), Expert on Turkey, Venezuela, Latin America
Florida, USA
Joined January 2012
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Yazilarimi paylasayim da Venezuela uzmani oldugum belli olsun:)
National Interest nationalinterest.org/feature…
Miami Herald
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Global Americans
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Ahval
ahvalnews.com/turkey-venezue…
Foreign Affairs Latinoamerica
revistafal.com/nuevo-espacio…
"Lula will, however, face major challenges, among them a hostile Congress and a fiscal crisis that must be tackled at the outset of his term, amid a crisis of confidence. His expansive social promises still need a clear fiscal path, and the most hostile Senate of his career will make every vote costly."
americasquarterly.org/articl…
Imdat Oner retweeted
LEAN, hermanos venezolanos… debemos estar preparados para manejar las expectativas
I told @WLRN that there were clearly some behind-closed-doors negotiations here — about how María Corina Machado will act when she returns. I believe she will not be pushing so hard for quick change, a quick election timetable, as many might assume. wlrn.org/americas/2026-10-25…
Wow, this is fast. Many expected right-wing leaders across the region to remain silent on Lula’s victory, but it looks like that won’t last long. Peru’s president, Keiko Fujimori, has already recognized the results and congratulated her Brazilian counterpart.
Felicito al presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva @lulaoficial por su reelección y saludo al pueblo brasileño por esta jornada democrática.
Próximos al bicentenario de nuestras relaciones diplomáticas, reafirmo nuestra voluntad de fortalecer nuestra alianza estratégica, la integración, la cooperación y el desarrollo sostenible de la Amazonía que compartimos, en beneficio de ambos pueblos.
And Kast in Chile
Acabo de conversar con el Presidente de Brasil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva y lo he felicitado por el resultado de la elección. Chile y Brasil tienen mucho futuro en común y seguiremos trabajando por una agenda que potencie las relaciones entre nuestros países en integración económica y combate al crimen organizado en la región. 🇨🇱🇧🇷
Imdat Oner retweeted
Flávio declines to recognize the result, says he will ask for election to be annulled. Improbable, but signals weeks/months/??? of tension ahead. The Bolsonaros will have biggest bloc in Senate, allied governors and possibly White House in their corner
Imdat Oner retweeted
Lula is the first presidential candidate in Brazilian history to finish second in the first round and still win the presidency in the runoff.
"Lula's win is also a blow for Donald Trump, the Bolsonaro clan’s most important international ally. The US president had been hoping Bolsonaro would become the latest in a series of pro-Trump leaders to take power in Latin America, including Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia, Daniel Noboa in Ecuador, José Antonio Kast in Chile and Javier Milei in Argentina." theguardian.com/world/2026/o…
Maria Corina Machado returns to Venezuela🇻🇪, and Lula wins in Brazil🇧🇷. What a day for Latin America watchers!
Lula vira, bate Flávio Bolsonaro e se reelege para inédito 4º mandato, projeta Datafolha
www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/…
The results are extremely close in the #BrazilElection. There’s still a long way to go, and I doubt either side will accept defeat without a fight.
I told @WLRN that there were clearly some behind-closed-doors negotiations here — about how María Corina Machado will act when she returns. I believe she will not be pushing so hard for quick change, a quick election timetable, as many might assume. wlrn.org/americas/2026-10-25…
Big chaos in Latin America’s most critical elections. Nobody knows where this will end up.👇
To give you a small idea of the chaos: At São Paulo’s biggest voting station (PUC), some voting machines were closed for the night, while some still open. If you were assigned a closed machine, you cannot vote. That’s in SÃO PAULO. Expect massive legal challenges nationwide. Nobody knows what happens next
It’s going to be a long night in Brazil. We may not know who the next president is for some time, as both sides are likely to challenge the results.
🇧🇷 EMPEZÓ LA CARGA DE RESULTADOS DEL BALOTAJE EN BRASIL
Pueden seguir el escrutinio por acá: resultados.tse.jus.br/oficia…
Imdat Oner retweeted
Reports on Brazilian TV of terrible chaos. Polling stations that had already closed their doors, reopening. Poll clerks completely confused. What a nightmare. Hard to say what the consequences might be, tonight and in the weeks and months ahead.
These scenes will deeply unsettle Delcy and her regime.But they know they can’t jail MCM or stop her by force. So they’ll keep Washington happy and make themselves as useful as possible for the US. That’s the only way they can hope to counterbalance MCM’s influence in the country
A few things to watch in the coming days:
- Will MCM facilitate negotiations or push a more aggressive agenda for the transition?
- Will she eventually be willing to sit at the same table with Delcy?
- Will she challenge the oil deal involving Betancourt or comply with it?
Imdat Oner retweeted
The conditions allowing for the safe return of Ms. Machado to Venezuela is the direct result of the U.S. supported reconciliation talks which has already seen hundreds of political prisoners freed and hundreds of political opposition figures return from exile.
The United States expects the freedoms of all sectors of Venezuelan politics to continue to be respected. Likewise, we expect all political actors to support these talks which represent the best chance Venezuela has had in thirty years to peacefully achieve not just a free and fair election but an enduring democracy.
A new chapter begins in #Venezuela today. The coming months will be difficult, but there’s a window of opportunity for a transition. If Washington uses its leverage over Delcy wisely, change is possible. If not, this moment could become another missed opportunity.