the only way out is up
Joined January 2022
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400,000 people die a day in the world. 100,000 of them are preventable by ASI.
If you can help bring about ASI 1 minute faster you save 70 lives.
We can all do our part. Reject pessimism. Accelerate.
Super Dario retweeted
obviously all enterprises will all pay $10m+ per year for ai, it's INTELLIGENCE ON A TAP, the most sought after resource
and only 250 companies pay $10m right now???
how people are bearish on ai right now, can someone explain. i dont care what finance people in NY says
Super Dario retweeted
What‘s crazy about this is that some years ago, a friend in a gc mentioned a friend of his that did the exact same thing. So independently, multiple men thought to start to do this. This is why i deem the show satanic
Super Dario retweeted
Today Physical Superintelligence PBC is announcing solutions to five long-standing problems in quantum information theory.
psi.inc/research/oqp-batch-2…
Thread 👇
Super Dario retweeted
If true, their claim implies a variety of other NP problems now all have faster algorithms as well. Since 3SAT is NP complete, this should make every computer scientist put at least a little more weight on the possibility of P = NP.
Super Dario retweeted
The ETH repository has a paper where it appears an Anthropic internal model independently disproved the Exponential Time Hypothesis? xitter.cf/rrwilliams/status/2114…
Our letter to the community invites ideas for organizing this effort and, separately, for addressing the broader questions raised by AI-generated results:
docs.google.com/document/d/1…
OpenAI's announcement is here: openai.com/index/building-sc…
Super Dario retweeted
I was and am shocked the exponential time hypothesis is false. I had hoped for a result on P / NP from the models, but had naively presumed they would prove the opposite of this result.
Announcing three major scientific discoveries, one each in mathematics (harmonic analysis), computer science (complexity theory), and physics (quantum field theory).
AI starting to help us improve our understanding of the universe! openai.com/index/building-sc…
Super Dario retweeted
I am generally inclined against vague posting. However, I can't resist saying that tomorrow is going to be a big day.
Super Dario retweeted
call me crazy but I think the Anthropic S1 could be the neocloud bottom
this whole thing began when the market puked about Ant's Q3 run rate leak; their economics have now been demonstrated to be rock solid. GPUs including older vintages trading at ATHs if you actually look at the data. agentic driving record token use. think this entire drama is overdone.
Super Dario retweeted
On track. You’re not AGI-pilled enough
We are announcing three new discoveries in mathematics, computer science, and physics about harmonic analysis, complexity theory, and quantum field theory.
openai.com/index/building-sc…
Super Dario retweeted
good read for what might come next:
emanueleviola.wordpress.com/…
Super Dario retweeted
An internal model at OpenAI has produced a claimed refutation of ETH! Russell Impagliazzo, Mohan Paturi, and I have been asked to help organize an open and independent examination of this claim. 1/4
Super Dario retweeted
I don't know what's the problem. Zitron was absolutely correct in saying "This company is not worth $60 billion."
Some entertaining highlights from wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-m… 20 months ago:
- "Anthropic has projected (made up) that it will make at least $12 billion in revenue in 2027"
- "This company is not worth $60 billion. Anthropic has raised $14.7 billion to create an also-ran Large Language Model company"
- "Anthropic, much like OpenAI, has categorically failed to productize its Large Language Model"
- "Its CEO is also a sleazy conman who, like Sam Altman, continually promises that his company's AI systems will become powerful and autonomous in a way that they have never shown any possibility of becoming."
- "Any investor in Anthropic needs to seriously consider what it is they're investing in. Its products are both unpopular and commoditized, and it lost $5.6 billion last year! Stop dancing around this fact! Stop it!"
- "there’s a lot of demand to put AI in stuff and some demand to buy stuff with AI on it by enterprises buying software, but little evidence to suggest significant user adoption or usage, I’d argue because Large Language Models do not lend themselves to features that provide meaningful business returns."
- "When a company uses the term “agent,” they are intentionally trying to be deceitful, because the term “agent” means “autonomous AI that does stuff without you touching it.” The problem with this definition is that everybody has used it to refer to “a chatbot that can do some things while connected to a database,” which is otherwise known as a chatbot."
- "It isn’t working. The users aren’t there. The revenue isn’t there. The best time to stop this was two years ago, and the next best time is as soon as humanly possible. I have said that generative AI is a group delusion in the past, and I repeat that claim today."
- "we are approaching the limit of what the transformer-based architecture can do, if we haven’t already reached it. No amount of beating off about test-time compute and connecting Large Language Models to other Large Language Models is going to create a new use case for this technology"
- "generative AI is OpenAI. The consumer adoption of this software has completely failed, and appears to be going nowhere fast. ChatGPT is sustained entirely on deranged, specious hype drummed up by a media industry"
... and my favorite ...
- "I will keep writing this stuff until I’m proven wrong."
Super Dario retweeted
We are announcing three new discoveries in mathematics, computer science, and physics about harmonic analysis, complexity theory, and quantum field theory.
openai.com/index/building-sc…
Super Dario retweeted
Biggest announcement of the day hasn’t come yet.
Yes this is a vague post, you won’t have to wait long.
Super Dario retweeted
This is the key stat. The average Fortune 500 customer of Anthropic spends less than .1% of their expenses on Anthropic.
While that number likely will eventually asymptote somewhere (token prices coming down, and other large enterprise spend areas not going away), there’s no reason it can’t be 10-50X higher than this, reaching a “mere” 1-5% of spend. Which would still be a fraction of what most startups are spending.
Thus, you can see how big of a divide there is between the frontier users of AI and the rest of the world still.
Today, only a microscopically small set of companies are actually using agents for large amounts of background tasks and inside of workflows that aren’t human prompted. This Fortune 500 spend is likely dominated by coding tasks and broad employee productivity use-cases.
But the big jump will come as these enterprises start to rewire their underlying processes for agents, which we’re now in the earliest stages of seeing. Agents processing large amounts of data in the enterprises; swarms doing coding, bio research, cyber, and other large fan out tasks; background workflows executing tasks in processes, and so on. All of these use cases generally are 100X bigger consumers of tokens, and much closer to direct ROI on the spend.
This S-1 gives you a sense of both the strength of the frontier lab business model - even amidst massive competition - and how early we are in the build out of AI.
More than half of the Fortune 500 already qualifies as a significant customer, but Anthropic’s revenue from those companies averages less than 0.1% of their expenses. Its ten largest Fortune 500 customers spend more than eight times the broader cohort average while still spending less than 1% of expenses.
Super Dario retweeted
Aaaaaaaand we have arrived at the extremely foreseeable outcome of creating a huge soft power and hard power opportunity for Chinese open weights models.
Now we face one of two choices: either we successfully field American open source models that outcompete the Chinese models at home and abroad, or we get increasingly fearful of the influence of Chinese models and this becomes a basis for escalating cyber conflict with China. Why not both? Well, maybe we wind up with both. But I hope we can secure our interests through purely outcompeting on the merits; we really don't want to pour gasoline on the potential fires of war.
