Projecting seats from polls for the next Dáil election since 2021.
Joined September 2023
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For clarity: I won't be posting here anymore while this site is in its current state.
I am on bluesky under my personal name, where I post about polling and other stuff. You can find me there.
Updates and articles will continue on irishelectionprojections.com
Irish Election Projections retweeted
A not-so-brief summary of where we are at heading into the new year in terms of polling, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael trending down, an Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats trending up. Featuring analysis for every constituency, read below 👇
irishelectionprojections.com…
Irish Election Projections retweeted
Dáil Seat Projections for end of 2025:
Sinn Féin 43 (+4)
Fianna Fáil 42 (-6)
Fine Gael 39 (+1)
Independents 12 (-4)
Social Democrats 15 (+4)
Labour 10 (-1)
Independent Ireland 6 (+2)
PBP/Solidarity 3 (nc)
Aontú 3 (+1)
Green Party 0 (-1)
100% Redress 1 (nc)
A not-so-brief summary of where we are at heading into the new year in terms of polling, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael trending down, an Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats trending up. Featuring analysis for every constituency, read below 👇
irishelectionprojections.com…
Irish Election Projections retweeted
Wrap of 2025 with Simon McGarr (@Tupp_Ed) and @irishelectproj’s Harry McEvansoneya
Only listen if you like your optimistic commentary wrapped in cynical pessimism.
Listen: patreon.com/posts/patron-exc…
Ennis is going to be a strong candidate. One to watch.
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Doesn't sound like much, if anything, new in the Fianna Fáil report. Doesn't make the issues go away, the whole situation is still what it is, but don't think this does much to change the trajectory the various parties have already decided to take
Irish Election Projections retweeted
New:
Fianna Fáil TD John McGuinness (Carlow-Kilkenny) tells @drivetimerte that "there is a growing number of people in the Parliamentary Party that feel a change in leadership is needed [which] has to take place in the first quarter of next year".
This comes after three senior TDs (Willie O’Dea, Seán Ó Fearghaíl & Pat The Cope Gallagher) called for the immediate publication of the party’s report into the Presidential Election.
Irish Election Projections retweeted
POLL/POBALBHREITH: Dáil Éireann
SF: 24% (+1)
FG: 17% (-2)
FF: 20% (+2)
SD: 8% (-1)
AON: 5% (-1)
LAB: 5%
INDIRL: 5%
PBP-S: 3%
GP: 2%
INDs & Others: 11% (+1)
+/- vs. Samhain/Nov 2025
Source: @Ireland_Thinks/@TheSundayIndo [D: DFómh/Oct, S: ~1,000]
#Ireland #Poll
Remember when we were all assured by certain politicians and analysts that Catherine Connolly was guaranteed to cause a major diplomatic incident if she was let within a kilometre of Zelenskyy? lol
Progress Ireland presenting polls saying people want more infrastructure is all well and good, but they appear to be pretending to have forgotten what the "M" in NIMBY stands for
You can demonstrate that people *in abstract* want something obviously good (better infrastructure) but these projects don't place in the abstract. Don't get observations submitted in abstract. Don't have JRs taken in abstract. It's all so disingenuous