listen only to yourself
Joined January 2022
- Tweets7.3K
- Following1.2K
- Followers1.8K
- Likes72.9K
ismail retweeted
the Anthropic pair on @entropyIO just crossed $150M in open interest
on Nov 4 it was around $100M. five days later it's +$50M
one pair. for a company that isn't even public yet
2.0x tradexyz's Anthropic market
1.6x Binance's
42% of all Anthropic OI across 9 exchanges
implied valuation $1.70T, ~1.8x the last private round
82% of the $185M OI cap already used
7 days to the earliest IPO date and size keeps walking in
Anthropic has seven different prices right now
1,728 on Entropy. 1,322 on Binance. $99.50 on tradexyz
Same company, same minute. Let's work out why, and which one is actually fair
Start with the fact that Anthropic has no spot price. A normal perp inherits its unit and its oracle from the underlying. Here every venue had to design both from scratch
The unit.
tradexyz quotes one share. Entropy and Lighter quote the whole company: 1 point = $1B of fully diluted valuation. Binance and OKX quote against a placeholder share count (1B and 10B) that gets adjusted later. Variational copies the exchange number
That alone explains most of the gap. Divide any screen price by the tradexyz share price and you get the share count that venue is trading on: about 17.4B for Entropy and Lighter, about 13.3B for the exchanges. Everyone agrees a share is worth roughly $100. They multiply it by different things
The oracle. Three designs.
Book only. Binance marks to a 10-second average of its own trades. tradexyz runs a 30-minute EMA toward its own book. As good as the book at its thinnest moment
Mirror. Variational has no book. It re-quotes an aggregate of other venues. No price discovery of its own.
Depth-gated blend. @entropyIO mixes its own book with an external private-market reference, and the mix depends on real liquidity:
w = min( log(1 + x·b/a) ÷ log(1 + b), 0.95 )
x is executable depth within 200 bps of mid. Deep book, up to 95% internal. Thin book, the external reference takes over. Liquidity that gets pulled loses its weight faster than new liquidity earns it.
So which price is fair?
My answer is Entropy's, for three reasons:
> It never needed a placeholder. It quotes the same thing the prospectus quotes, a fully diluted valuation, so there is nothing to rebase.
> Its oracle only trusts its own book when there's money behind it. The other designs either always trust the book or never do.
> Its exit is written down to the line of the prospectus: share price × fully diluted count ÷ 1B, fixed once, and the contract keeps trading after the IPO.
I think that's why the positions are there. Entropy holds $180M of Anthropic open interest. Binance holds $113M. tradexyz $98M. Size goes where the rules are clear.
One open variable. The filing supports more than one fully diluted count, from 15.94B without the grant reserve to 17.99B with it, and they are 13% apart. The market is already trading that: Entropy ÷ tradexyz sat at 16.1B for two weeks and jumped to 17.38B within hours of the prospectus.
That ratio is the number to watch into the listing.
2
6
263
ismail retweeted
.@entropyIO is now the #1 onchain venue for Anthropic by volume
above tradexyz, above Lighter, above every DEX
> Entropy: $16.8M 24h
> tradexyz: $13.8M 24h
> Lighter: $3.8M 24h
> Paragon: $15K 24h
it was already #1 by open interest, 65% of all onchain Anthropic OI. now it's #1 by flow too. that's the full sweep onchain
and by OI it's #1 even counting CEXs, $143.5M vs $92.4M on Binance
the Anthropic pair on @entropyIO just crossed $150M in open interest
on Nov 4 it was around $100M. five days later it's +$50M
one pair. for a company that isn't even public yet
2.0x tradexyz's Anthropic market
1.6x Binance's
42% of all Anthropic OI across 9 exchanges
implied valuation $1.70T, ~1.8x the last private round
82% of the $185M OI cap already used
7 days to the earliest IPO date and size keeps walking in
ismail retweeted
went through the top 5 traders on the @entropyIO leaderboard wallet by wallet. pulled fills, positions and margin from the Hyperliquid API
found one pattern that I think is worth your attention
meet the 2 wallets:
#2 Polar Badger. $475M lifetime volume on HL, +$2.7M all-time, +$1.09M this month. mostly crypto size, used to trade on tradexyz this summer
#5 Lunar Falcon (0x051748895c6ed4fab50828bebe8e62e665134d23). $2M equity. +$791K this month. runs one thesis: short the AI trade
what Falcon did in the last 3 weeks:
> mid Oct: $3.5M in shorts on tradexyz (SK Hynix, Samsung, CXMT), $0 on Entropy
> today: $1.63M on tradexyz, $1.67M Anthropic short on Entropy
> SK Hynix short cut from $2.3M to $0.66M, Samsung closed
> 45% of his equity now sits as margin on Entropy, 17% on tradexyz
not a hedge. every position is a short. same thesis, he just moved where he expresses it
now the efficiency gap:
> SK Hynix short on tradexyz: +$166K over 10 weeks ≈ $2.4K/day
> Anthropic short on Entropy: +$235K over 8 days ≈ $29K/day
> plus $18.7K in funding collected on top of that
execution was clean too. he scaled into the short from $1,785 to $1,850, covered $1.1M at $1,650-1,716 and still holds 1,000 ANTH
Badger ran the same play at smaller size. Anthropic short Nov 2, placed on Entropy, closed next day in profit
so why Entropy and not tradexyz. I compared the Anthropic market on both over the last 7 days:
> funding: shorts on Entropy got paid in 144 of the last 168 hours. peaked at 70-80% APR on Nov 4-5 when longs piled in. on tradexyz ~0% the whole week
> spread: 1.2 bps vs 2.9 bps
> max leverage: 15x vs 10x
the funding number explains the most. positive funding means longs pay shorts, and it spikes when the crowd goes long into the IPO hype. a short seller on the other side gets paid while the longs are crowded. on tradexyz the same position earns nothing
Falcon timed it perfectly: his biggest funding days ($7.8K and $7.1K) were exactly Nov 4-5
for someone who lives on shorts, that's the obvious place to put size
2 of the top 5 already moved their Anthropic shorts there. we're watching tradexyz traders slowly drift to Entropy. let's see where this goes, but ngl it looks interesting
.@entropyIO is now the #1 onchain venue for Anthropic by volume
above tradexyz, above Lighter, above every DEX
> Entropy: $16.8M 24h
> tradexyz: $13.8M 24h
> Lighter: $3.8M 24h
> Paragon: $15K 24h
it was already #1 by open interest, 65% of all onchain Anthropic OI. now it's #1 by flow too. that's the full sweep onchain
and by OI it's #1 even counting CEXs, $143.5M vs $92.4M on Binance
ismail retweeted
That's pretty insane tech honestly.
Michael is the great guy. He always innovate something new.
When we was partners, we always hustled and did his best to deliver product we've needed.
Always invest in founders, not products. Tech can flop, ppl behind it - cant.
Watch his track record of things he is building and just embrace his new idea he thought worth to put time in.
went through the top 5 traders on the @entropyIO leaderboard wallet by wallet. pulled fills, positions and margin from the Hyperliquid API
found one pattern that I think is worth your attention
meet the 2 wallets:
#2 Polar Badger. $475M lifetime volume on HL, +$2.7M all-time, +$1.09M this month. mostly crypto size, used to trade on tradexyz this summer
#5 Lunar Falcon (0x051748895c6ed4fab50828bebe8e62e665134d23). $2M equity. +$791K this month. runs one thesis: short the AI trade
what Falcon did in the last 3 weeks:
> mid Oct: $3.5M in shorts on tradexyz (SK Hynix, Samsung, CXMT), $0 on Entropy
> today: $1.63M on tradexyz, $1.67M Anthropic short on Entropy
> SK Hynix short cut from $2.3M to $0.66M, Samsung closed
> 45% of his equity now sits as margin on Entropy, 17% on tradexyz
not a hedge. every position is a short. same thesis, he just moved where he expresses it
now the efficiency gap:
> SK Hynix short on tradexyz: +$166K over 10 weeks ≈ $2.4K/day
> Anthropic short on Entropy: +$235K over 8 days ≈ $29K/day
> plus $18.7K in funding collected on top of that
execution was clean too. he scaled into the short from $1,785 to $1,850, covered $1.1M at $1,650-1,716 and still holds 1,000 ANTH
Badger ran the same play at smaller size. Anthropic short Nov 2, placed on Entropy, closed next day in profit
so why Entropy and not tradexyz. I compared the Anthropic market on both over the last 7 days:
> funding: shorts on Entropy got paid in 144 of the last 168 hours. peaked at 70-80% APR on Nov 4-5 when longs piled in. on tradexyz ~0% the whole week
> spread: 1.2 bps vs 2.9 bps
> max leverage: 15x vs 10x
the funding number explains the most. positive funding means longs pay shorts, and it spikes when the crowd goes long into the IPO hype. a short seller on the other side gets paid while the longs are crowded. on tradexyz the same position earns nothing
Falcon timed it perfectly: his biggest funding days ($7.8K and $7.1K) were exactly Nov 4-5
for someone who lives on shorts, that's the obvious place to put size
2 of the top 5 already moved their Anthropic shorts there. we're watching tradexyz traders slowly drift to Entropy. let's see where this goes, but ngl it looks interesting
Entropy mogging tradexyz
Entropy now holds 2.1x more Anthropic open interest than tradexyz
$131.6M vs $61.9M, same chain, same USDC, same liquidation engine
43% of all Anthropic OI across 8 exchanges, 1.6x Binance
Trade on entropy with low fees- entropy.io/?r=issmailzy
6
151
ismail retweeted
.@entropyIO just mogged @edgeX_exchange in open interest
75 days old btw
> edgeX: $158.9M
> Entropy: $159.3M
> now #11 perp venue by OI on DefiLlama, ahead of edgeX, Extended, Paradex
> OI +90% in 7 days while most of the board is flat
> the Anthropic pair alone is 2.1x @tradexyz
next target: GMX Solana. $10.6M away. the leaderboard is moving and most of CT hasn't looked yet
ismail retweeted
Anthropic hasn't even listed yet and @entropyIO is already the #11 perp venue by open interest
why I think the IPO window prints Entropy's biggest numbers yet:
simple math I run on entropyIO:
volume ≈ OI × how fast it turns over
> $159.3M OI rn
> the Anthropic pair turns over ~0.4x a day. people are holding, not farming
> ~3% daily moves for the last 20 days
1/ every holder has to make a decision
take profit, hedge, add, roll. thousands of positions, one event. and those orders get executed where the positions were opened
2/ the gap trade
Entropy prices Anthropic on a fixed convention. the first Nasdaq print opens a gap between the perp and the stock. that gap gets traded, and the perp side lands on the book that's been pricing it for 2.5 months
3/ vol go brrr
a 3% a day market about to get a listing-day candle. liquidations, re-sizing, panic adds. all forced flow, all on the venue where the positions live
4/ early is the product
the edge in a pre-IPO name lives before the listing. after it, it's on every broker and the asymmetry is gone. Entropy's whole model is to be there first, then repeat it with the next frontier name
the cope check: some flow will rotate to regular stocks after the listing. watch OI over the next 14 days. slow bleed = sticky. cliff = it was just the event. I'll post it either way
if the pre-market already looks like this, the listing should be the loudest week Entropy has had
"Trade the frontier"
Anthropic hasn't even listed yet and @entropyIO is already the #11 perp venue by open interest
why I think the IPO window prints Entropy's biggest numbers yet:
simple math I run on entropyIO:
volume ≈ OI × how fast it turns over
> $159.3M OI rn
> the Anthropic pair turns over ~0.4x a day. people are holding, not farming
> ~3% daily moves for the last 20 days
1/ every holder has to make a decision
take profit, hedge, add, roll. thousands of positions, one event. and those orders get executed where the positions were opened
2/ the gap trade
Entropy prices Anthropic on a fixed convention. the first Nasdaq print opens a gap between the perp and the stock. that gap gets traded, and the perp side lands on the book that's been pricing it for 2.5 months
3/ vol go brrr
a 3% a day market about to get a listing-day candle. liquidations, re-sizing, panic adds. all forced flow, all on the venue where the positions live
4/ early is the product
the edge in a pre-IPO name lives before the listing. after it, it's on every broker and the asymmetry is gone. Entropy's whole model is to be there first, then repeat it with the next frontier name
the cope check: some flow will rotate to regular stocks after the listing. watch OI over the next 14 days. slow bleed = sticky. cliff = it was just the event. I'll post it either way
if the pre-market already looks like this, the listing should be the loudest week Entropy has had
"Trade the frontier"
.@entropyIO just mogged @edgeX_exchange in open interest
75 days old btw
> edgeX: $158.9M
> Entropy: $159.3M
> now #11 perp venue by OI on DefiLlama, ahead of edgeX, Extended, Paradex
> OI +90% in 7 days while most of the board is flat
> the Anthropic pair alone is 2.1x @tradexyz
next target: GMX Solana. $10.6M away. the leaderboard is moving and most of CT hasn't looked yet