DVJones

Two Tumbles And A Jump The "Two Tumbles And A Jump" rule states that when the Federal Reserve eases the monetary climate by decreasing one of the three basic policy variables (Discount Rate, Margin Requirement, or Reserve Requirement) two times in succes-sion, conditions are favorable for an ensuing "jump" in stock prices. It was first proclaimed by Fosback in 1973. The rule was then next triggered on January 9, 1975, following the Fed's second consecutive cut in the discount rate. The market shot upward from that point, with the S&P 500 Index increasing 32% after one year and reaching a peak interim gain of 34%. Though impressive, it was only an average "Two Tumbles And A Jump" performance. Had an investor bought at each "Two Tumbles And A Jump" signal date and sold the position one year later, he would have realized a handsome return. Although he would have been invested for only 17 of the last 69 years, an initial $10,000 investment would have grown to $542,304 by year-end 1983. Alternatively, an investor who disdained the market during those 17 years and held stocks only through the remaining 52 years would have seen an original $10,000 investment shrink to just $6,450. The "Two Tumbles" rule more than captured the entire market rise since World War I The great bull markets of every decade have been accompanied by "Two Tumbles And A Jump" signals. Even the November 15, 1929, signal was propitious, for it precisely caught a 28% six month rally between the quick, panicky crash in the fall of 1929 and the real crash of mid-1930 to mid-1932. The December 3, 1981, signal was early, but it preceded the largest market breakout in half a century. Furthermore,on average the "Two Tumbles" signals have yielded impressive gains across all holding periods. In fact, it is one of the very, very few indicators in existence with a near perfect half-century record. Economic theory holds that the Federal Reserve System can snap an economic or stock market expansion quite easily by taking restrictive monetary action, but that it has a much more difficult time reversing a contraction. The theory is often described in terms of "pulling or pushing on a string." (It is obviously easier to pull a string than to push one.) According to the theory, when the economy is operating at or near full capacity or when the market is straining toward new heights, the strings are tight and the Fed can pull them around at will. When the economy is depressed, the strings are slack, and the Fed has great difficulty pushing them in the direction and with the force it desires. Although this theory seems plausible, it is not supported by the "Stumbles" and "Tumbles" rules. While the expansionary "Two Tumbles And A Jump" rule has a truly superlative record of forecasting market and economic upturns, the restrictive “Three Steps And A Stumble” rule has only a moderately good record of forecasting downturns. Strangely enough, it is the latter which has gained a relatively wide following in the investment community, while the former has escaped "discovery" until relatively recently. Even technical analyst Edson Gould, one of the most vocal supporters of the "Three Steps" rule, has pointedly remarked that restrictive Fed actions are more significant than actions of moderation.The evidence casts considerable doubt on that hypothesis.

This sunset never gets old 😏

The feed is loud. This is the opposite. Drop your sunset. No caption needed. 🌅

Let’s get it @stevewilldoit style 💪

Wow Stevenson slept

King Ryan didn’t even break a sweat wow #GarciaBenn

We smoking on that $40 Trillion pack tonight 💨 📈

X Money card on top where it belongs

Aight, Friday morning, let’s go raw! Morning rundown first: Yesterday the bulls finally punched through. Soft PPI came in cooler than expected — headline flat, core softer — and that was all the market needed. S&P ripped to a brand-new record close at 7,799, up 0.65%. Nasdaq joined the party, up 0.8% to 26,803. Dow crawled higher by a measly 0.1%. Tech and AI names carried the load again while oil cooled off a bit. Rate-hike odds for September kept sliding. Clean win for the bulls going into the weekend. Overnight was quiet-ish. Asia mixed, Europe mixed, oil bouncing around but not exploding. Futures came in mostly flat to slightly green on the S&P, Nasdaq a little mixed, Dow a touch soft. Nothing dramatic — just the market sitting on those fresh highs waiting to see if Friday has any follow-through. Market open rundown: Bell just rang. Looking like a quiet, slightly mixed open right around the record levels. S&P hovering near that 7,800 area, no big gap either way. Volume still light like typical Friday summer action. Tech trying to hold the gains from yesterday while the rest of the tape digests the soft inflation prints from this week. This whole week has been chop with a late bullish tilt. Soft CPI, soft PPI, AI earnings popping, oil yo-yoing, and the S&P back at records. Classic end-of-week grind — either the bulls push for another leg higher or we get some profit-taking before the weekend. That’s the raw morning + open rundown, you beautiful degenerates. Stay sharp, don’t do anything stupid on a Friday, and let’s see if these records actually stick. Now go make some money!​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ $SPY $QQQ

Boom. Data just dropped and it’s softer than expected, you animals. PPI came in cool: • Headline producer prices: unchanged month-over-month (they wanted +0.2%) • Year-over-year: +4.7% (est. was +4.9%) • Core PPI: +0.2% m/m (est. +0.3%) • Core y/y: +4.2% — right on the number That’s a clean, cooler-than-expected print. Takes more heat off the inflation story after yesterday’s in-line CPI. Jobless claims: • Initial claims jumped +9k to 209k (they were looking for 204k) • Continuing claims dropped nicely -22k to 1.777 million • Prior week revised down to 200k Claims a little hotter than expected, but nothing crazy. Labor market still hanging in there without falling apart. Overall? Soft PPI is the real headline. Market should like this — another data point that keeps the Fed on the sidelines for September looking more likely. Futures were already mildly green going into it. This chop just got a little friendlier for the bulls. Let’s see if they actually do something with it once the open settles. That’s the raw print, motherfuckers. Cleaner than expected on the producer side. Now go make some money.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ $SPY $QQQ

*US JULY PRODUCER PRICES UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.2% *US JULY PRODUCER PRICES RISE 4.7% Y/Y; EST. +4.9% *US JULY CORE PPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3% *US JULY CORE PPI RISES 4.2% Y/Y; EST. +4.2%

US JOBLESS CLAIMS +9K TO 209K IN AUG-8 WK; SURVEY 204K US AUG-1 WEEK CONTINUING CLAIMS -22K TO 1,777,000 US AUG-1 WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS REVISED TO 200K

Aight, listen up you beautiful degenerates! It’s Thursday morning and this market is still out here chopping like a bad barber with a dull razor. Yesterday we finally got a little relief. CPI dropped dead on the numbers — no surprises, no drama — and that cooled the rate-hike talk a bit. Then the AI boys went full animal. CoreWeave and Super Micro crushed it, Nasdaq ripped about half a percent, S&P grabbed a clean quarter point up to around 7,748. The Dow? That old dusty motherfucker just sat there and finished basically flat like it didn’t even care. Overnight? Same messy shit. Asia was mostly holding it down — chips in Korea looking healthy, Nikkei green. Europe a little soft. Oil finally took a breather after running like a crackhead all week. It’s slipping 1-2% this morning on some demand worries and inventory builds, even though the Hormuz situation is still a complete clusterfuck with no real deal in sight. Futures right now? Mild green. S&P up a little over a tenth, Dow a touch better, Nasdaq basically flat to slightly up. Looking like another one of those sideways, range-bound opens while we wait for PPI at 8:30. This whole tape is still grinding around the highs, oil cooling off a little, rate odds drifting toward a hold… but nothing is clean. Classic summer chop with geopolitical noise in the background. That’s the morning rundown, my people. Stay sharp in this messy shit and don’t do anything stupid. Now go make some money or at least don’t lose it all before lunch.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ $SPY $qqq #SPX