Ex @GoldmanSachs • Check out TheWrap🌯@ https://xitter.cf/t.co/bZqTmFZFru • ✉️ [email protected] • Sharing Data & Insights • All tweets are opinions • Nothing is advice

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Joined February 2020
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Anthropic S1 just dropped Here is a 100 page deck that covers their entire S1 without any legalese and boilerplate jargon thewrapanthropic.tiiny.site/… Anthropic has over 12K customers that spend $100K a year
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Each dollar of compute now brings in two dollars of revenue Margins are inching higher Anthropic giant cash war chest is earning over 700M USD in interest every quarter Broadcom is the largest supplier of compute to Anthropic, SpaceX and Google are second and third
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Oil is up ~20% this month In its entire history since the 80s, oil has risen 20% or more in a single month just 11 times Meanwhile, oil flow through Hormuz is nearly at its previous peace time flows as tanker operators fear another shutdown looming soon
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Latest #TheWrap🌯is now available to read ⤵️ Discover special situations, sector rotation, insider trades, bulk and block deals, new listings, order wins, earnings review & more thewrap.in/blog/thewrap174 Your one stop place for everything important in Indian Stock Market
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Ended the day at 1000+ Third such day in Oct March was the only month more volatile than Oct this year
1356 down 3% or more within first hour itself today Third highest single day of selling this year
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1356 down 3% or more within first hour itself today Third highest single day of selling this year
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1494 now, second highest day of selling this year Will be break the March record today?
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~4000cr of leverage unwinding this month so far March was 9700cr
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US10Y is now below 5%
Expect some cool off in bond yields in the coming weeks as investor appetite for these have reached an eight year high Oil too may stabilize for sometime as increased supply from Russia + EU reserves enter the market All of these are temporary solutions as we enter Q2FY27 earnings season In a narrowing market, expect high growth names multiple to expand even further and those with a growth miss to be butchered
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The best thing about a day after a selloff is how easily it reveals true strength
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Smallcap Index at key support Good probability of a bounce here
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Will be another 900+ day today
For the first time since May 2026, we have 900+ stocks going down 3% or more today First real volatile day after months of calm
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Buying has resumed here after 30% correction from listing But its still expensive
Opened exact at 650-700 range price 10x to 8x forward sales 20x TTM Sales 30% PBIT Margins
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MIDDLE EAST FLOWS: Not only flows have proven resilient, but over the last few days (particularly since Oct 16), SoH traffic has surged despite Iranian attacks. Total Middle East crude flows (ex-Iran, including SoH and all the bypass pipelines and routes) are back to >90% of pre-war levels (last seen in late Sept), and even higher if using a short 7-day average. Refined products flows remain significantly below. Caveat: flows are very uneven, with some days of large number of tanker crossings, followed by very quiet days. Overall, physical Middle East crude oil premia has continued to drop; just the opposite of what has happened to flat prices. The Oman-Dubai differential has fallen to a 3-month low of ~$4 a barrel. The differential was >$30 a barrel in mid-Sept.
MIDDLE EAST OIL FLOWS: Despite a wave of Iranian attacks since the beginning of October, total Middle Eastern crude oil flows (ex-Iran) remain resilient. Flows are becoming, however, lumpier (days of multiple tanker crossings followed by days of very few tankers). Overall, Middle East (ex-Iran) crude flows, including Strait of Hormuz plus all the bypass routes, are holding at ~75% of pre-war levels, down from a ~95% *peak* in the last days of September. Crucially, despite the drop in recent days, the Oct 1-Oct 10 period average remains above Sep full month average (and well above full month August). Kuwait is struggling the most right now. UAE, Iraq and KSA (the last one using both Persian Gulf and Red Sea) are doing relatively well. All said, the risk is to the downside if the Iranian attacks continue (and if they become more successful). Iran has sunk at least one container ship in the SoH over the last 24 hours. The same goes for Red Sea flows under Houthi / Iraq militias potential attacks. For Iran itself, Hormuz remains closed. One key indicator to follow: despite the Iranian attacks against SoH traffic, the physical premium for Middle Eastern crude has come down significantly in recent days, touching today a near 2½-month low.
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Warning signs from a month ago have largely played out Lot of good risk:reward available in so many names in the market today Market breadth is already inching upwards and so far Q2 results season has had an even stronger start than Q1 Wont be too aggressive in building positions but have started adding
Saudi Arabia’s crude supply fell to its lowest level in more than three decades in August, at roughly 6 million barrels per day Supply conditions remain constrained in September, while Saudi Aramco has now halted October crude deliveries to at least two European refiners following renewed disruptions to its critical East-West pipeline Earlier in the year, Saudi Arabia increasingly relied on the East-West pipeline to bypass disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, helping keep more crude flowing to global markets That alternative route has now itself been disrupted following a series of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure Despite this increasingly difficult macro backdrop, markets have remained remarkably resilient But beneath the surface, participation continues to weaken Most stocks have recovered even as broader market breadth continues to deteriorate A lot is riding on Q2FY27 earnings Wont be too aggressive in building new positions, nor too aggressive in booking existing ones
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AI related revenue for IT Services companies is increasing but at the cost of slowdown in existing revenue Business model is also changing with almost all deals being signed outcome driven instead of headcount driven Growth Guidance Wipro Q3: -1.5% to 0.5% HCL: 2.5% to 4.5% (raised from 1 to 4%)
Latest #TheWrap🌯is now available to read ⤵️ Discover special situations, sector rotation, insider trades, bulk and block deals, new listings, order wins, earnings review & more thewrap.in/blog/thewrap173 Your one stop place for everything important in Indian Stock Market
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Latest #TheWrap🌯is now available to read ⤵️ Discover special situations, sector rotation, insider trades, bulk and block deals, new listings, order wins, earnings review & more thewrap.in/blog/thewrap173 Your one stop place for everything important in Indian Stock Market
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One week of bounce, and entire narrative on IT Service companies have changed Meanwhile, these are the QoQ earnings print of top 7 IT Service companies (this is after many inorganic acquisitions in last several qtrs) Are they oversold? Yes Are they cheap? Yes Can they grow at high rates this year? No
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$TSM alone will spend upwards of a $100B in capex in 2028 This is after spending $90B in 2027 and $65B this year abhi picture baaki hai
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Over 50% of all new bond issuances are now AI related A rising interest enviornment will make it tougher to raise more money and fund further incremental capex
The era of cash flow funding AI capex is ending The era of equity & debt issuance funding AI capex is starting
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