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Anthropic S1 just dropped
Here is a 100 page deck that covers their entire S1 without any legalese and boilerplate jargon
thewrapanthropic.tiiny.site/…
Anthropic has over 12K customers that spend $100K a year
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US10Y is now below 5%
Expect some cool off in bond yields in the coming weeks as investor appetite for these have reached an eight year high
Oil too may stabilize for sometime as increased supply from Russia + EU reserves enter the market
All of these are temporary solutions as we enter Q2FY27 earnings season
In a narrowing market, expect high growth names multiple to expand even further
and those with a growth miss to be butchered
Tar ⚡ retweeted
MIDDLE EAST FLOWS: Not only flows have proven resilient, but over the last few days (particularly since Oct 16), SoH traffic has surged despite Iranian attacks.
Total Middle East crude flows (ex-Iran, including SoH and all the bypass pipelines and routes) are back to >90% of pre-war levels (last seen in late Sept), and even higher if using a short 7-day average. Refined products flows remain significantly below. Caveat: flows are very uneven, with some days of large number of tanker crossings, followed by very quiet days.
Overall, physical Middle East crude oil premia has continued to drop; just the opposite of what has happened to flat prices. The Oman-Dubai differential has fallen to a 3-month low of ~$4 a barrel. The differential was >$30 a barrel in mid-Sept.
MIDDLE EAST OIL FLOWS: Despite a wave of Iranian attacks since the beginning of October, total Middle Eastern crude oil flows (ex-Iran) remain resilient. Flows are becoming, however, lumpier (days of multiple tanker crossings followed by days of very few tankers).
Overall, Middle East (ex-Iran) crude flows, including Strait of Hormuz plus all the bypass routes, are holding at ~75% of pre-war levels, down from a ~95% *peak* in the last days of September. Crucially, despite the drop in recent days, the Oct 1-Oct 10 period average remains above Sep full month average (and well above full month August). Kuwait is struggling the most right now. UAE, Iraq and KSA (the last one using both Persian Gulf and Red Sea) are doing relatively well.
All said, the risk is to the downside if the Iranian attacks continue (and if they become more successful). Iran has sunk at least one container ship in the SoH over the last 24 hours. The same goes for Red Sea flows under Houthi / Iraq militias potential attacks. For Iran itself, Hormuz remains closed.
One key indicator to follow: despite the Iranian attacks against SoH traffic, the physical premium for Middle Eastern crude has come down significantly in recent days, touching today a near 2½-month low.
Warning signs from a month ago have largely played out
Lot of good risk:reward available in so many names in the market today
Market breadth is already inching upwards and so far Q2 results season has had an even stronger start than Q1
Wont be too aggressive in building positions but have started adding
Saudi Arabia’s crude supply fell to its lowest level in more than three decades in August, at roughly 6 million barrels per day
Supply conditions remain constrained in September, while Saudi Aramco has now halted October crude deliveries to at least two European refiners following renewed disruptions to its critical East-West pipeline
Earlier in the year, Saudi Arabia increasingly relied on the East-West pipeline to bypass disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, helping keep more crude flowing to global markets
That alternative route has now itself been disrupted following a series of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure
Despite this increasingly difficult macro backdrop, markets have remained remarkably resilient
But beneath the surface, participation continues to weaken
Most stocks have recovered even as broader market breadth continues to deteriorate
A lot is riding on Q2FY27 earnings
Wont be too aggressive in building new positions, nor too aggressive in booking existing ones
AI related revenue for IT Services companies is increasing but at the cost of slowdown in existing revenue
Business model is also changing with almost all deals being signed outcome driven instead of headcount driven
Growth Guidance
Wipro Q3: -1.5% to 0.5%
HCL: 2.5% to 4.5% (raised from 1 to 4%)
Latest #TheWrap🌯is now available to read ⤵️
Discover special situations, sector rotation, insider trades, bulk and block deals, new listings, order wins, earnings review & more
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Your one stop place for everything important in Indian Stock Market
Latest #TheWrap🌯is now available to read ⤵️
Discover special situations, sector rotation, insider trades, bulk and block deals, new listings, order wins, earnings review & more
thewrap.in/blog/thewrap173
Your one stop place for everything important in Indian Stock Market
One week of bounce, and entire narrative on IT Service companies have changed
Meanwhile, these are the QoQ earnings print of top 7 IT Service companies
(this is after many inorganic acquisitions in last several qtrs)
Are they oversold? Yes
Are they cheap? Yes
Can they grow at high rates this year? No






















