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PETTERSSON/TOCCHET/#Canucks MEGA POST: TLDR: Tocchet's coaching is hurting Elias Pettersson, and (Most Of) the rest of the teams ability to produce. I was watching highlights, when I was reminded about Pettersson's former linemate, Nikolay Goldobin, and it got me thinking about Pettersson and what teammates he's best played with over the years. Turns out, some of his best linemates are Creative Playmakers who aren't afraid to hold the puck: JT Miller xGF% with Petey (19-21'): 56.02% Without Petey: 47.68% Petey without Miller: 40.02% VAN W/O Both: 46.70% (9.32% worse than with both) Goldobin xGF% with Petey (2018-19): 50.12% Without Petey: 45.25% Petey without Goldobin: 41.48% VAN W/O Both: 45.98% (4.14% worse than with both) Kuzmenko xGF with Petey (22-24'): 56.38% Without Petey: 47.26% Petey without Kuzmenko: 46.16% VAN W/O Both: 49.63% (6.75% worse than with both) The rest of the thread will be about Pettersson and the Canucks from October 1 2022 until the 2024 ASG (Feb 1 2024) and after. I will be using the words "before decline" and "after decline" to describe these points in time. Looking at Pettersson's stats expected stats and high danger chances, nothing would seem too off. BEFORE DECLINE (129 games): (Stats at 5v5) - xGF%: 52.08%. 4th Among Canucks, 2nd For Forwards behind Garland (Among players with 1000 minutes TOA) - HDCF%: 51.09%. 2nd, behind Garland - 352 High Danger Chances (2.73 per game) - 107 Individual High Danger Chances (0.83 per game) - OFF Zone Faceoff %: 53.42% - Rush Chances/60: 0.35 AFTER DECLINE (74 games): - xGF%: 53.86%. 6th Among Canucks, 4th Among Forwards behind Hoglander, Garland, and Miller (500 minute TOA minimum) - HDCF%: 55.92%. a 4.83% increase, 3rd behind Hoglander and Garland. - 203 High Danger Chances (2.74 per game) - 57 Individual High Danger Chances (.77 per game) - OFF Zone Faceoff %: 48.01% - Rush Chances/60: 0.18 Considering most other statistics show Pettersson is actually doing better rate wise in almost everywhere besides Rush Attempts, I decided to look at some other players on the Canucks BEFORE AND AFTER THE DECLINE at 5v5 per 60: - Studnicka: 0.82/60 - Lafferty: 0.77 before, 0.37 after - PDG: 0.72 before, 0.51 after - Hoglander: 0.53 before, 0.21 after - Mikheyev: 0.51 before, 0 after (Seriously, in his final 390 minutes as a Canuck he had 0 rush attempts 5v5) - Garland: 0.48 before, 0.67 after - Miller: 0.37 before, 0.4 after. - Hughes: 0.22 before, 0.20 after. - Hronek: 0.12 before, 0.06 after. Also hilariously, before decline, our most active defenseman for Rush Attempts/60 (500 min TOI minimum) was OEL at 0.33 After decline, our D man with the most Rush Attempts/60 has been NOAH JUULSEN AT 0.5 per game. He attempts Rushes 150% more than Quinn Hughes. This is not a joke, a meme, or a typo. This is 100% real. So, in conclusion, the Canucks best players have actually played decently well overall since the all star break. Here's the issue however The Canucks (and Rick Tocchet) Rush Offense is getting worse, and has completely neutered their Franchise Center's most elite tool as a result Our amount of rush chances for per game is down even more than it was last year (32nd both seasons btw), and our shooting percentage on Rush Chances fell from #1 in the league to league average. The NHL is a rush offense league. Team's attack with speed and skill, which is easier to do on the rush. In fact, Pettersson's best tool off the rush is taking advantage of defenders who are in a panic trying to get back into proper coverage (youtube.com/watch?v=YPY0gFHS…). It's much harder to do this on the cycle once teams set up their defensive structure. Pettersson's strength's on the cycle is finding the soft spots in the slot (youtube.com/watch?v=hdGARyXo… and youtube.com/watch?v=4TVr_OvF…). The Canucks are one of the worst teams in the league at finding chances in the slot, and are even worse at east-west cross seam passes. Tocchet's system for YEARS (whether or not he cares to admit it to everyone else) has been the opposite of that, and leans into aspects of the game that he himself was good at (up and down the wing, power to the net, pucks on, rebounds, hitting). In conclusion, if you are a superstar, chances are your production is going to decrease a decent amount in Rick Tocchet's system unless: 1. You go on a shooting bender (JT Miller last year with his 19.4%, Joshua with his 21.4% and Lafferty with his 16.7% shooting percentages) 2. You have a fantastic ability to get shots through traffic (Quinn Hughes) 3. You game is based on Power, like Tocchet's was. (JT Miller and Dakota Joshua as well) If you're a grinder, or someone who is reliant on speed, effort, and little details, chances are you are going to have a marginal uptick in production (Garland, Sherwood, Joshua types.) The problem that this presents is that in todays NHL, you win and lose based on your superstars ability to produce. Depth that produces is okay, but you won't have too many winning streaks if your team relies on having bottom 6 players putting up career seasons. In conclusion: Rick Tocchet's coaching is directly countering Elias Pettersson's (and most of the rest of the Canucks, to a lesser degree) best skills, in favour of boosting the production of bottom 6 players. Sorry for the essay, but I'll never stop pushing #TheAgenda. #Canucks