Here are my ramblings, the dumbest SPX trader in the world: I was thinking about the macro this weekend, and backtesting prior cycles, midterms, and just generally getting inspired to do better. Overall, I think we get an up day tomorrow, 7614 swept -> 7640 -> 7700, reject around there, back down to 7500 area, before new ATH likely by early November. If the news around the middle east does not improve, I can see NATH dragging out into the new year. This would line up with the anchored VWAP from end of March breakout. The top watches for me: - MU 1020cs - For some reason seeing bids on these for 11/6 onwards - SPX 7850c for 10/27 - I'm still unsure why they spent that kind of scratch for such a short dated print - SPY 780/790c for 11/6 and 11/30 - IGV still going strong - There's a pair trade out there, short semis -> Long IGV (software), its roughly up 40% in the past 2 months - MSFT has earnings on FOMC day, I think they'll crush but will be an excuse to exit big positions - SPCX leaps / commons - The weird XLE puts for THIS FRIDAY and into early November are sussing me out - There's a rumour from some macro guys going long homebuilders and slowly getting into metals like GLD/SLV for EoY - There's a fear of a recession into 2027, so I would NOT be surprised to see emergency rate cuts going into 2027 - I don't talk politics much so leaving that out, I really could not care what happens with midterms, the charts want a shakeout before a rip - I know the macro is hurting most folks, for now indicies/ETFs aren't fully breaking down yet, the panic is incoming but I think it's more rotation under the hood into defensive names - Bizarre prints on 705c for tomorrow on QQQ - ANF broke out -> Wondering if it's time to start looking into non-technology sectors - Hedge funds biggest drawdown this past quarter in quite some time -> They are just worried about keeping their jobs and more into cash right now, even some hot sectors or stocks that are undervalued they are not touching because of the drawdown - The French government / bonds vs. German bonds pair trade is going to get unwound, I wouldn't call it a black swan but it has potential to be a catalyst that drives the market lower in the coming weeks - It's a when not if, and how deep of a sell off that triggers remains to be seen - Similar to the Japanese yen <> usd carry trade unwind in 2024 -> Though I doubt it'd be that severe, generally the big funds have hedges in place this time around - Fractals - Generally my mind is going towards these algos showing us a move on the daily/weekly, then repeating that exact same move intraday -> I believe the July 15 -> 30 shakedown is next before a big rip up but on a shorter timeframe - Cash is king