Visiting Fellow, Ph.D. retweeted
A lot of ink has been spilled on GPU financing lately. I spent over a decade trading ABS on Wall St, and structured over $2B+ of debt financings as an operator (including at @tryramp). Figured I'd try to make sense of this market, so I went back to a framework I knew well: aircraft ABS and aircraft engine ABS.
My take: a GPU neocloud runs on airline economics, and the debt behind it looks a lot like aircraft engine ABS.
The parallels:
• Perishable inventory. An empty seat after the door closes is gone forever. So is an idle hour on an energized H100 rack.
• 85%+ of cost is fixed (servers, 10-year rack leases, 10-14% debt service). One more hour of compute costs pennies of power.
• Utilization is everything. Airlines break even around 80% load factor, a levered GPU cluster around 65-75%. The returns live in those last 25 percentage points.
• NVIDIA is Boeing and Airbus rolled into one. Powered shells and grid interconnects are the new airport slots.
• Wall St copied the aircraft financing playbook: take-or-pay contract plus servers in a bankruptcy-remote SPV, 70-80% LTV.
Part 1 of my blog post goes into a lot more detail:
alexyangsong.com/blog/alumin…
if you work in RSI/autoresearch/curiosity-based system, this blog is a must read. super well-written, and its design imo is the best practice for such system (tho after42 today is for theoretical hardcore researchers) it also shows that most such autoresearch question proposed by frontier intelligence are compositional (97%), e.g. marrying existing ideas, real OOD questions are super rare.
after42.org/research/can-ai-…
AI is now taking on some of the hardest open problems that scientists have posed. But research is broader than solving problems. Can AI also propose research questions that experts find genuinely interesting?
We built After42 to find out. Experts judged 45 of its 135 final questions genuinely interesting, across mathematics, statistics, theoretical computer science, and physics, with wide variation across subfields.
The key idea: develop questions by trying to solve them.
We also asked whether AI can judge which questions are interesting. We find that model judges' top choices align with expert consensus but do not consistently capture individual experts' preferences.
We release the expert-assessed questions as an open resource for researchers to discuss, refine, and pursue, as a step toward integrating AI into the broader research enterprise.
after42.org
Visiting Fellow, Ph.D. retweeted
Recent weeks have made it clear that AI excels at solving research problems. How good is it at proposing *interesting* research problems? Thanks to the ratings of 29 experts across math, stats, CS, physics, we found 1/3 were interesting, and we fully expect this to improve. This raises important questions about the desired relationship between {humans,AI} in {academia,industry}...
AI is now taking on some of the hardest open problems that scientists have posed. But research is broader than solving problems. Can AI also propose research questions that experts find genuinely interesting?
We built After42 to find out. Experts judged 45 of its 135 final questions genuinely interesting, across mathematics, statistics, theoretical computer science, and physics, with wide variation across subfields.
The key idea: develop questions by trying to solve them.
We also asked whether AI can judge which questions are interesting. We find that model judges' top choices align with expert consensus but do not consistently capture individual experts' preferences.
We release the expert-assessed questions as an open resource for researchers to discuss, refine, and pursue, as a step toward integrating AI into the broader research enterprise.
after42.org
Houston is going crazy over Cybercab
There has never been an excuse to drink and drive. With @Tesla expanding their Cybercab/Robotaxi services area across #Houston, there are more ways than ever to get home safely after a night out.
Plan ahead, make the smart choice, and never get behind the wheel impaired. #DontDrinkAndDrive
1/ You can now run a research swarm entirely on your Mac, model included.
Eight agents share one local 40B Flint model on a 48 GB M4 Pro: writing code, testing ideas and building on whatever works.
Give them a problem and a score to beat. Here's how 🧵
Visiting Fellow, Ph.D. retweeted
1/ The main claim of this paper: most rl gradient comes from easy samples. Also fewer rollouts and more diverse prompts (obv with some positives) are better than a lot of rollouts per prompt.
xitter.cf/mnoukhov/status/209993…
Is RL actually making your LLM better?
Gains from RL are mostly on easy questions🤯
We're calling this the Matthew Effect for RL on LLMs. We then leverage async RL to solve harder problems by Never Giving Up!
paper arxiv.org/abs/2609.13443 blog mnoukhov.github.io/posts/ngu… 🧵👇
Visiting Fellow, Ph.D. retweeted
The coding interview is dead, at least for my team at Anthropic. I've seen enough to know that it no longer provides signal. I removed it from loops this month.
I have a spicy, optimistic take - I think there's an opportunity for junior engineers: felixrieseberg.com/hunger-be…
Visiting Fellow, Ph.D. retweeted
Fork-and-Flush: Escaping autoresearch idea basins via population-based ‘training’ 🧑🔬
Idea descent: @jackcai1206 @christos_ziakas et al. frame autoresearch as "idea descent" over the space of possible solutions. Like GD, it can get stuck in local optima aka "idea basins".
Method: fork the agent into K branches that keep the workspace but start with an empty chat history. Run each for some part of the total budget, keep the best branch, and continue. A single run (never fork) and best-of-N (fork once at the start) are the two extremes of this spectrum.
Classical roots: it's basin hopping and population-based training applied to agents. Copy the best solution, then perturb it. The copied state is the workspace, and the perturbation is dropping the chat history. The branch has to work out its intent from the files alone, which is what lets it land in a new basin.
Results: at the same compute, fork-and-flush clearly beats both a single long run and best-of-N across a range of research/eng tasks, and results vary less from run to run. Forking and flushing each help on their own, but the combination works best.
Interestingly, run-to-run variance (‘forking potential’) is largest when a task is at the edge of model capabilities, so this kind of exploration may stay useful as models get stronger.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2610.07447
Visiting Fellow, Ph.D. retweeted
Introducing Nestor, a new generation of scalable architectures that generalize MoE transformers and explicitly promote sparsity in both attentions and experts, hence learn structured deep representations more efficiently. Work with @TianzheC and @druv_pai: ma-lab-berkeley.github.io/Ne…
Visiting Fellow, Ph.D. retweeted
Waxing gibbous almost full moon (or Harvest Moon) this evening above Fonts Point. Note the people in front of the moon (Photo: Sicco Rood).
Visiting Fellow, Ph.D. retweeted
A snapshot from the relatively "small" thunderstorm that moved over the Salton Sea on September 28th. The last sunlight still reached the cloud tops (just under 20,000 feet) 10 minutes after the sun had set locally at the Salton Sea (Photo: Sicco Rood).
Visiting Fellow, Ph.D. retweeted
Announcing No Limit: a bot building tournament hosted by @Sequoia, @citsecurities and @OpenAI.
Teams of 1 or 2 get 60 minutes to build a pokerbot from scratch.
Agents play thousands of games across six scored rounds.
Open to university students and recent grads (‘25 or ‘26).
Regionals in Boston, Pittsburgh and the Bay Area in early November. Top five teams from each fly to the Finals. $100K grand prize.
🤖 Made with AI
Visiting Fellow, Ph.D. retweeted
Another world-class robotics lab coming out of stealth, exciting results in in-context learning!
Ed is one of the leading UK robotics researchers, I remember seeing him demo Instant Policy at a tiny room in his Imperial lab early last year, amazing to see the progress since!
Today we’re out of stealth, and we’ve raised a $40m seed round co-led by @creandum and @usv, to bring Instant Robot Learning to life.
For the past few months, we‘ve been busy building a new company.
Machenta.
This follows results from a new kind of robot foundation model we’ve built, which I’m so excited to share with you today!
Usually, it takes hours/days of data collection and training to teach a robot.
We’ve built a model that learns tasks instantly: one demonstration, no further training.
A model trained entirely in simulation, without a single pixel of real-world data.
A model where teaching robots is so quick and easy, it feels like physical vibe coding.
A model for robots that learn like humans do, from someone like you.
Welcome to the era of Instant Robot Learning.
Thank you @Kathi_Wilhelm, @rebeccakaden, @hkanji, @jonno_evans and all of our angels for your support!
@Machenta_
Learn more: machenta.com/blog/instant-ro…
See below for what you can do with Instant Robot Learning!
Introducing Real World Engineering Bench (RWE-Bench). AI isn’t great at designing rockets, engines, or chips yet. With better evals and RL environments, it will be.
Software was just the beginning. The physical world is next.
Visiting Fellow, Ph.D. retweeted
Miguel and Carlos are veteran engineers who are building environments to help AIs master real world engineering (aerospace, mechanical, electrical, etc).
This kind of data will do for physical engineering what coding environments have done to software.
Proud to be backing them.
Visiting Fellow, Ph.D. retweeted
(1/4) @flappyairplanes raised $1B to develop megakernels for unusual, data-efficient learning.
Since I don't have $1B, I built Latch: a compiler that generates training megakernels from PyTorch. It's open source!
Visiting Fellow, Ph.D. retweeted
Introducing Pomerado (YC F26): the faster, cheaper, and more reliable alternative to browser use.
Open source. Sign up for free to supercharge your agents 🧵



































