Jake Marks

Happy Election Day! Here's what to expect throughout the day, along with a rough timeline of how election night will unfold. All times Eastern. 8 a.m. - 6 p.m. No results yet, but we'll be tracking turnout and other updates throughout the day. More than 30 million Americans are expected to vote across the country today. Much of what we'll hear won't be particularly informative, and I'm sure there will be plenty of reports about long lines somewhere, for example. But we will also get some hard data that can offer decent insights into the electorate. We shouldn't expect these numbers to tell us very much about the eventual outcome, but some will be more informative than others, particularly in Florida, where we receive regular updates on turnout by party registration throughout the day. 6 p.m. The first polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. IN-05 and KY-06 offer early tests of Democrats' ability to compete in Republican-held districts, while Indiana's secretary of state race is also worth watching. However, we expect much of the first hour's vote to come from early ballots, which are likely to be more Democratic than the final results. They also won't tell us much about who turned out on Election Day itself. 7 p.m. We should begin receiving some informative results very quickly. Florida's House races will provide an important early benchmark. Democrats winning more than two of FL-07, 09, 14, 22, 25, and 27 would be an encouraging sign for the party, while Republicans would hope to carry at least five of the six. Still, Florida's recent shift toward Republicans limits how much we can extrapolate from these results to the national political environment. Georgia and suburban Virginia should offer additional clues, while races in New Hampshire and South Carolina will help establish how broad the battleground is tonight. 7:30 p.m. Ohio and North Carolina bring the Senate fight into focus as Democrats hope to flip both seats. Roy Cooper is favored in North Carolina; a close race would be encouraging for Republicans. Sherrod Brown’s Ohio comeback bid is a more demanding test of Democrats’ path to a majority. Early and mail ballots may give Democrats an initial advantage that narrows as Election Day votes arrive. 8 p.m. Most Texas polls close, with James Talarico challenging Ken Paxton. Large early returns should offer a useful first read. Maine and Michigan also begin entering the picture, but their Senate races may require considerably more patience. A competitive Kansas Senate race would suggest Democrats are reaching well beyond the usual battlegrounds. Results will start reporting in tons of competitive U.S. House races. 9–10 p.m. The Senate battlefield extends to Iowa and Nebraska. Wisconsin’s governor race, House contests in Arizona and Colorado, and later Nevada and Montana broaden the picture. Poll closings won’t always mean immediate results. 11 p.m. onward The West Coast adds many safe Democratic seats, so a rising Democratic seat count alone won’t signal a change in the national trend. Hawaii and most of Alaska close at midnight. Alaska’s first results are scheduled after 1 a.m., bringing Mary Peltola’s challenge to Dan Sullivan into focus.