CFA | Co-Managing Partner of Bitcoin Opportunity Fund | Board Director of Strive (NASDAQ: ASST) | Author of đź’ˇThe Informationist Newsletter
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Most people have never heard of the Cantillon Effect.
But once you understand it, you’ll see the world of investing differently.
What is it?
In the early 1700s, Richard Cantillon noticed a simple pattern:
When new money enters an economy, it doesn’t reach everyone at once.
And whoever gets it first benefits the most.
Here’s how it works today:
New liquidity enters through the Fed and through bank lending.
Both follow a similar pattern:
→ Markets and large balance sheets get first access
→ Large corporations and well-connected borrowers tap cheap credit next, they invest and expand at today’s prices
→ Asset prices tend to rise as new liquidity chases finite assets
→ Consumer prices often follow
→ Wages rise last, usually after purchasing power has already declined
Fed data shows how lopsided the playing field is:
- The top 10% hold nearly 90% of equities.
- The bottom 50% holds about 1%.
It’s a simple but powerful monetary transmission.
Understanding this won’t change the system.
But it might change how you think about where to store your savings.
For those of you who don't know, I write all about topics like this every week in The Informationist. Last week, we dove deep on this one.
Link in bio if you want to read the full explanation.
Good evening.
There are three certainties in life:
1) Death
2) Taxes
and
3) The relentless and endless debasement of fiat currency.
Have a great night.
Step 1: Degenerate traders pile into bitcoin with excessive leverage and hopes of generating lottery-sized returns.
Step 2: Hedge fund traders flush bitcoin to the downside, causing 100% losses for degenerate leveraged traders while cleaning up on short side.
Step 3: Bitcoin stabilizes and begins to recover, tempting degenerate traders with thoughts of trying again: “It’ll work this time, I’m certain of it. It’s a lock.”
Step 4: Repeat step 1.
Good evening.
The market sometimes has a funny way of dismissing long-term conviction and reacting to short-term price action instead. If you believe that governments will swiftly and miraculously solve long-term debt and deficit issues, then by all means, sell the assets that protect you against the alternative. I personally do not believe they will solve any of it and that they will continue to paper over the problems with expanded liquidity and debt instead. And so, my conviction remains.
Have a great night.
So far in the Great Information Freakout of October 22, we have:
The entire internet and every user is at risk to a massive cyberattack,
Quantum computing will soon break bitcoin and send it to zero,
A company has devised a way to create pure and unlimited gold through fusion,
There will never be a resolution to the war in Iran,
And Democrats are on track to sweep the midterm elections and turn the United States into a communist country.
Did I miss anything?
Good morning.
Today is one of those days that brings the market nothing but fear, uncertainty and doubt at every turn. Keep your discipline, try not to react.
And have a great day.
Even if it were possible for the IRS to seize every dollar from every billionaire in America, it would total about $9 trillion and only run the federal government for roughly 15 months. The problem has to do with spending.
James Lavish retweeted
The Fed and Treasury are headed for a “shotgun wedding.”
Why? America's debt burden is becoming so enormous that the Fed may no longer have the freedom to fight inflation without creating a crisis in the Treasury market.
@JamesLavish explains why he believes we're already entering the early stages of fiscal dominance.
The Fed Is Trapped: Why America Needs Inflation | James Lavish
@JamesLavish returns to Free The Money to discuss America's $40 trillion national debt and why he believes the U.S. cannot simply grow its way out of its debt crisis, despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's optimism surrounding AI-driven productivity growth.
James argues that we're already in the early stages of fiscal dominance, where the government's growing debt burden increasingly constrains the Federal Reserve's ability to conduct independent monetary policy. He explains how the Fed and Treasury are headed toward an inevitable "shotgun wedding," with inflation becoming increasingly necessary to sustain America's debt-dependent financial system.
We also explore rising Treasury yields, the oil-driven inflation shock, the housing affordability crisis, and why lower Fed rates don't necessarily translate into lower mortgage rates. Finally, James shares his concerns about the debt-fueled AI boom, extreme stock market concentration, CoreWeave's credit default swaps trading at distressed levels, and the growing risks surrounding private credit.
Subscribe to James Lavish’s Newsletter The Informationist here: jameslavish.com
Want financial privacy? Check out my favorite privacy coin @Zano_project
You can buy Zano seamlessly on MEXC using a VPN, or browse the full list of exchanges where Zano is available here: zanolist.com/exchanges
You can also find educational content, tutorials, and interviews on the official Zano YouTube Channel: youtube.com/@ZanoProject
0:0 Can America Outgrow Its $40 Trillion National Debt?
5:03 Can AI Save the U.S. Economy?
9:58 Trump's Inflation Strategy & Rising Treasury Yields
12:12 The Oil Supply Shock & Rising Energy Prices
14:54 Fiscal Dominance Explained: Is the Fed Losing Independence?
18:33 Financial Privacy with Zano
27:09 Why the Fed Can't Repeat the 1980s Interest Rate Hikes
35:01 Operation Twist
39:20 Did the Treasury Miss Its Chance to Lock In Low Rates?
42:00 The Housing Affordability Crisis
50:33 What Would It Take for Mortgage Rates to Fall?
54:24 AI Bubble Warning Signs: S&P 500 Concentration & South Korea's KOSPI
55:25 CoreWeave, Private Credit & the Risk of Financial Contagion
1:04:14 How to Protect Your Wealth During a Market Crash
1:07:29 Bank of America's Penalties, Bitcoin & Banking Double Standards
James Lavish retweeted
Big banks violate sanctions, pay a fine, and move on. Meanwhile, many people who have invested in Bitcoin have been debanked.
@Jameslavish shares how investors in his Bitcoin fund had wire transfers rejected, and two were actually debanked.
“The currency of choice for criminals is the US dollar, and the way to do it is through banks.”
The Fed Is Trapped: Why America Needs Inflation | James Lavish
@JamesLavish returns to Free The Money to discuss America's $40 trillion national debt and why he believes the U.S. cannot simply grow its way out of its debt crisis, despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's optimism surrounding AI-driven productivity growth.
James argues that we're already in the early stages of fiscal dominance, where the government's growing debt burden increasingly constrains the Federal Reserve's ability to conduct independent monetary policy. He explains how the Fed and Treasury are headed toward an inevitable "shotgun wedding," with inflation becoming increasingly necessary to sustain America's debt-dependent financial system.
We also explore rising Treasury yields, the oil-driven inflation shock, the housing affordability crisis, and why lower Fed rates don't necessarily translate into lower mortgage rates. Finally, James shares his concerns about the debt-fueled AI boom, extreme stock market concentration, CoreWeave's credit default swaps trading at distressed levels, and the growing risks surrounding private credit.
Subscribe to James Lavish’s Newsletter The Informationist here: jameslavish.com
Want financial privacy? Check out my favorite privacy coin @Zano_project
You can buy Zano seamlessly on MEXC using a VPN, or browse the full list of exchanges where Zano is available here: zanolist.com/exchanges
You can also find educational content, tutorials, and interviews on the official Zano YouTube Channel: youtube.com/@ZanoProject
0:0 Can America Outgrow Its $40 Trillion National Debt?
5:03 Can AI Save the U.S. Economy?
9:58 Trump's Inflation Strategy & Rising Treasury Yields
12:12 The Oil Supply Shock & Rising Energy Prices
14:54 Fiscal Dominance Explained: Is the Fed Losing Independence?
18:33 Financial Privacy with Zano
27:09 Why the Fed Can't Repeat the 1980s Interest Rate Hikes
35:01 Operation Twist
39:20 Did the Treasury Miss Its Chance to Lock In Low Rates?
42:00 The Housing Affordability Crisis
50:33 What Would It Take for Mortgage Rates to Fall?
54:24 AI Bubble Warning Signs: S&P 500 Concentration & South Korea's KOSPI
55:25 CoreWeave, Private Credit & the Risk of Financial Contagion
1:04:14 How to Protect Your Wealth During a Market Crash
1:07:29 Bank of America's Penalties, Bitcoin & Banking Double Standards
James Lavish retweeted
The Fed Is Trapped: Why America Needs Inflation | James Lavish
@JamesLavish returns to Free The Money to discuss America's $40 trillion national debt and why he believes the U.S. cannot simply grow its way out of its debt crisis, despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's optimism surrounding AI-driven productivity growth.
James argues that we're already in the early stages of fiscal dominance, where the government's growing debt burden increasingly constrains the Federal Reserve's ability to conduct independent monetary policy. He explains how the Fed and Treasury are headed toward an inevitable "shotgun wedding," with inflation becoming increasingly necessary to sustain America's debt-dependent financial system.
We also explore rising Treasury yields, the oil-driven inflation shock, the housing affordability crisis, and why lower Fed rates don't necessarily translate into lower mortgage rates. Finally, James shares his concerns about the debt-fueled AI boom, extreme stock market concentration, CoreWeave's credit default swaps trading at distressed levels, and the growing risks surrounding private credit.
Subscribe to James Lavish’s Newsletter The Informationist here: jameslavish.com
Want financial privacy? Check out my favorite privacy coin @Zano_project
You can buy Zano seamlessly on MEXC using a VPN, or browse the full list of exchanges where Zano is available here: zanolist.com/exchanges
You can also find educational content, tutorials, and interviews on the official Zano YouTube Channel: youtube.com/@ZanoProject
0:0 Can America Outgrow Its $40 Trillion National Debt?
5:03 Can AI Save the U.S. Economy?
9:58 Trump's Inflation Strategy & Rising Treasury Yields
12:12 The Oil Supply Shock & Rising Energy Prices
14:54 Fiscal Dominance Explained: Is the Fed Losing Independence?
18:33 Financial Privacy with Zano
27:09 Why the Fed Can't Repeat the 1980s Interest Rate Hikes
35:01 Operation Twist
39:20 Did the Treasury Miss Its Chance to Lock In Low Rates?
42:00 The Housing Affordability Crisis
50:33 What Would It Take for Mortgage Rates to Fall?
54:24 AI Bubble Warning Signs: S&P 500 Concentration & South Korea's KOSPI
55:25 CoreWeave, Private Credit & the Risk of Financial Contagion
1:04:14 How to Protect Your Wealth During a Market Crash
1:07:29 Bank of America's Penalties, Bitcoin & Banking Double Standards
James Lavish retweeted
Fourth-and-1 at midfield today. Fourth-and-2 in the fourth quarter. We got stopped both times, and Florida scored a touchdown after each one.
Coach Sark,
I played for Texas. I was a team captain and an All-American on the Forty Acres. I love this program, so writing this hurts. I'm only doing it because I think one thing is holding us back, and I'd rather say it to you straight than keep yelling at my TV.
Please hand the play sheet to someone else.
You've done a lot for this place. Two straight playoff semifinals and an SEC title game in our first year. Texas matters again because of you, and I'm grateful. I'm not calling for your job. Not even close.
But look at the big moments. Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, first-and-goal at the 1, and we walked away with nothing. Ohio State again last year, fourth-and-goal from inches, we stayed in a speed package and got stuffed. You said yourself you'd probably sub if you could do it over.
Last week against OU it was third-and-1 at our own 45 and we threw a little pass to the back that lost 2. Tied 24-24, two minutes left, fourth-and-2 at their 35, we sent out the kicker for a 53-yarder. Today you called the fourth-down run "not very good design."
I went back through the official play-by-play. In our two losses this year we converted 4 of 11 third and fourth downs with two yards or less to go.
That's not all on the line or the backs. Nobody is getting push right now. We're running for about 3.6 a carry. That's exactly why this offense needs a coach whose whole week is the offense. Your job never stops. Recruiting, the portal, NIL, a 100-plus man roster. That's a full-time job by itself.
History backs this up. The last head coach to win a national title calling his own offensive plays was Jimbo Fisher, in the 2013 season. No champion in the playoff era has done it. Ryan Day gave the calls to Chip Kelly in 2024 and won it all. You won a ring at Alabama calling plays for Coach Saban.
You already have Kyle Flood with the coordinator title. Let him call it, or bring in someone you trust. Then you get to be the head coach on fourth-and-1, seeing the whole field.
This is the school that ran the wishbone to titles in '69 and '70. Earl Campbell ran for 1,744 yards in '77. Ricky Williams left with 6,279. We know who we're supposed to be. And our defense is holding teams under 3 yards a carry. We can win with that.
After OU you said "not a chance" about giving up the calls. I'm asking you to think about it one more time. For the players.
Hook 'em.
Texas fans, if you agree, please repost and tag @CoachSark. #HookEm
If Texas loses this game to Florida, it will force the conversation about Sarkasian hiring an offensive coordinator.
James Lavish retweeted
Hiking rates will likely be the kneejerk response, if CPI remains elevated, so that it looks like they're doing something. Even if that "something" can't actually accomplish the sole reason for it being done.
