Markets. Risk. Humanity. History. ex-SDE/SDM turned trader. An aspiring flaneur looking for optionality. "Freedom is not free".
Canada, Lebanon
Joined November 2010
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Hedging with puts is tough. Very tough. After all, it's a trade designed to lose money most of the time. The best edge is usually finding cheap puts. But when Mike mentions puts, I tend to double down.
Bought $SPY 06Nov 330 puts at $0.48 2 days ago. Sold 1/2 too early this morning at $0.97. Still holding the rest, but will likely close them by EOD. They're now at $2.40, after hitting $3.25 earlier!!!
I'm one of those subs that @priceactionlab is referring to!
#gold -3%, below key support levels. Our subscribers know what we expected, and some knew already what to do. All others continue to do what you are doing. 😂
Canadian banks could be setting up for a major short opportunity. For yrs, they've benefited from mass immigration, a booming housing market, ZIRP, and rising asset prices that fueled wealth management profits. Many of these tailwinds have been fading, yet valuations remain elevated.
To be fair, these are highly profitable, well capitalized businesses with diversified revenue streams. But how much future growth is already priced in, and where will the next decade of earnings growth come from?
$RY $TD $BNS
$GOOGL is down -13.35% - the worst single day drop in its 22 yr history! The only two comparable times it was down this much were during the GFC and Covid crashes!
Ok bought some $GOOGL at $283. Based on its history, this selloff is overdone. I see potential for a quick +5% bounce today or tomorrow and will reassess the position as the day's price action unfolds.
At today's low of $681.23, $CAT is down 36.5% from its ATH of $1,073.46 (just a mere 3.5 months ago), marking its deepest drawdown in the past 5 yrs!
It also happens to be oversold again so I'm tempted!
I remember putting together this watchlist of beaten-down software stocks back in the spring - businesses supposedly destined to be killed by #AI. Many are $IGV constituents.
I traded a few of them but took profits too quickly. Many of the stocks below have since doubled or tripled, with several hitting new highs over the past six months.
Crazy how quickly market narratives can flip. Yet another reminder that 99% of investors are better off simply owning market-cap weighted index funds.
Software names in $IGV that are down the most ... too much damage but some look very attractively priced now:
The trades lost money, but the Substack gained wisdom. Seems like a good hedge!
This has been on my mind almost none stop recently. Besides survivability hedges, I'm seriously considering moving back to Lebanon, despite everything going on in that part of the world. The western world is too fragile in the face of AI driven disruptions. OTOH, Lebanese society has already learned to function when institutions fail!
Some physical gold and cash, being debt-free, owing productive land, having reliable access to freshwater, food production, solar power, battery storage, tools, equipment, practical skills...
But most importantly to me is being part of a strong local community. Really considering moving back to Lebanon in spite of everything going on in that part of the world!
Keeping a close eye on the Aerospace & Defense sector, particularly $ITA and its 3x leveraged counterpart, $DFEN (which I own).
I've rarely seen $ITA this oversold. Since September 9, it's been oversold 21 days total out of 23. And there's been virtually no reprieve.
The current streak stands at 9 consecutive days. Only twice in its history has $ITA endured longer stretches: 13 days during COVID and 12 days in 2023. Both cases produced excellent returns within 10 days.
This is an exceptionally rare setup worth watching closely.
Disclsoure: I've been buying $DFEN. I was a bit early with an ACB of 49.5. Now 44.67!
The illusion of knowledge!
#AI has made it extraordinarily easy and cheap to generate authoritative sounding answers, without making it nearly easy and cheap to verify their truth. The resulting gap between apparent knowledge and actual knowledge could become enormously destructive!
#NaturalGas has offered several good entry points as a seasonality play over the past few months, and we may be looking at another one now, provided the underlying uptrend remains intact, which I think is likely.
I continue to hold a core position in $BOIL and have been scaling in and out around it. #NG $UNG
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