Jansen retweeted
1064-day theory which my astro quant shared with me says the cycle ends on 6th of October. I know we don’t all believe in cycles anymore, but it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, so I’m worried that if some OG BTC wallet starts selling, everyone will think cycles are real and it’ll create short-term downside momentum. Also, BSC season “bad jeju” usually comes around the end of rotations iykyk.
My invalidation is pretty clear: if BTC closes a daily candle above ATH, I’ll look for new trades; or if nothing happens in the next 4–5 days. Even if I miss, I won’t miss much because we’re trading at the range highs anyway. Best case, I’ll just trade new tokens, which offer the best R/R these days. Worst case, I’ll just buy higher, or I can prepare for a new rotation. I also had this idea that we might see an early-October fakeout right when everyone is coming back and positioning for Q4 to make them think Q4 is bad. And then we run it up late October.
Or I can stop the mental gymnastics and just long my longs like everyone else because CZ said Q4 is bullish.
I still think we go much higher from here because there are so many catalysts lined up in Q4.
had no plans on posting it all anyone because i gain nothing from this and will be called mentally challenged by keyboard warriors.
Jansen retweeted
🚨 Did you miss buying $ETH retest at 4K or $BTC at 109K?
Then this post is for you 👇
**Educational Content**
When the market is dumping, you’re usually clueless where to buy because you keep expecting it to go lower.
Here’s the trick 🧠👇
The first strong bounce you see is usually a reaction move off support.
This is where you need to observe price action (PA) closely:
•Did PA turn bullish temporarily?
•Was it able to push above previous candles or at least make an attempt?
This reaction move is your signal, not your entry.
It helps you gauge the strength (or weakness) of buyers after the drop.
What usually follows next?
👉 The Retest and this is where the cleanest entries are made.
•Structure gets confirmed
•You get a tight invalidation
•You enter with better conviction & R:R
Instead of chasing the reaction move, wait for the retest.
This is your play if you don’t want to bid blindly on support.
🎥 Want me to break this down with a few chart examples on video?
Or you got the point?
Lmk if you want me to share similar examples on 4H TF or 1H TF ⏱️
If you found this helpful ,bookmark, comment, and retweet 🔁
4th time's a charm honey!
Spot is the way, Loading $Eth in dips
Even if there is a further dip it would be 4-5% to downside but upside here is 30-40% so play it smart :)
Jansen retweeted
You wouldn't tell by the stock market's price action yesterday and today, but the news flow tells me that the situation with China is reheating, not calming.
Jansen retweeted
Since December @lekker_cap has been telling investors that the equity market has a "Mag7 problem". Trees don't grow to the sky and headwinds have been growing for some time.
Jansen retweeted
Powell was incredibly hawkish. So much so he went out of his way to warn of elevated structural risks for the United States making it a less attractive jurisdiction for investment. He also downplayed the recent market volatility as "orderly functioning as expected". Mega hawk.
Jansen retweeted
Why does the Fed and market participants now only think in an all or nothing mentality? Hike 50 and 75 or nothing at all. Break the regional banking system and come in with a QE sledgehammer. Be late to act in 2024 then frantically cut 50 in one meeting and 100 in 4 months.
Objectively, policy has not been calm and straightforward. There is no cohesion. The regional banking system blew up 2 years ago. The Fed 180° pivots on every topic they touch - crypto/stablecoins is the latest. While I don’t think the “End the Fed” proclamations are often well-articulated, I absolutely understand the sentiment behind it.
Jansen retweeted
In February @lekker_cap began warning investors of the implications of unanchoring inflation expectations, a trend that began well before the now infamous Liberation Day.
Jansen retweeted
In January, @lekker_cap was warning investors about the extremely overextended investor positioning in US equities while highlighting the diverging strength in Europe and Japan. The fear mongering hysteria around everyone fleeing US assets is now over done.
Jansen retweeted
Japan takes 2.5% of US exports, provides 3.8% of US imports and is the largest developed nation the US has the most negotiating leverage with (hint: national security). A trade deal that improves the US's trading position is a positive but doesn't provide much read through imo.
Jansen retweeted
If Trump wanted to present a more effective argument regarding Fed policy, he should ask the simple question of, "Jerome, why are you accepting 'soft' inflation data as gospel while ignoring 'hard' inflation data but doing the opposite for the labor market and economy?"
While emphasizing the upside inflation risks of tariffs, the Fed is ignoring oil prices down over -20% from January and March prints that show a continued decline.
On the other hand, when it comes to the labor market and economic growth, they are ignoring many forward looking 'soft' measures showing deterioration in lieu of a still low unemployment rate. Challenger announced layoffs shown below as one example.
If Trump communicated in a more productive way, he would get his message across more effectively as it does have some merit.
Why does the Fed and market participants now only think in an all or nothing mentality? Hike 50 and 75 or nothing at all. Break the regional banking system and come in with a QE sledgehammer. Be late to act in 2024 then frantically cut 50 in one meeting and 100 in 4 months.
Objectively, policy has not been calm and straightforward. There is no cohesion. The regional banking system blew up 2 years ago. The Fed 180° pivots on every topic they touch - crypto/stablecoins is the latest. While I don’t think the “End the Fed” proclamations are often well-articulated, I absolutely understand the sentiment behind it.
Jansen retweeted
Bessent strikes again🎯
Bessent is Druck and Soros level greatness in the macro arena. The ignorance of the armchair economists and fake news coming out to discredit him is out of touch with reality. He is visibly passionate about what he’s been given the opportunity to do for the country and it’s clear he is the mastermind behind the current economic rebalancing based on everything being done tracking his word to a tee.
Jansen retweeted
In the last 12 months, $MARA has issued $4.8B in new equity. Their current market cap? $4.9B. Perpetual destroyers of capital. Meanwhile the management team makes a combined $80M+ in annual compensation. How's that for grifting?
$MARA still has a $4.3B MC ($6.3B EV) and makes no money despite how strong Bitcoin has been. The reason for this is hashprice at all-time lows. Meanwhile, they have no hope for AI/HPC. There is no floor price for this stock.
Jansen retweeted
Everyone connecting the dots on how bearish this is for Circle ahead of their IPO, but it's also bearish read through for $COIN as @_Andrew_Stein points out 👇
Jansen retweeted
One of my favorite roundups in a while airing tomorrow morning joined by @DannyDayan5 and @qthomp 🫡
Jansen retweeted
This is not a real open arms response and is trying to bait Trump to play the heel and to respond w something inflammatory
On the sidelines a ton of continents & countries are arranging lines of trade to see how they can lessen the US being the center of influence
Jansen retweeted
The market is converging to a spot where perspective and experience is starting to mean less & less
You have people that started their careers in the depths of '08, seeing the last 2 decades unfold with spurious bail-outs and massive amounts of liquidity injected. Secular bears and distressed HFs greatly underperformed during this time. These people are bull-holed. They are immensely eager to replicate the same playbook they witnessed work, except this time with savings flush of cash - remiss that they didn't have the same ability to deploy back in the late 2000s. These folks are MD / Principal level now
And then you have people who started their careers at some point in the last decade. Macro has never actually been meaningful bc growth has been a straight line up, and sheer vapor (FARTCOIN, etc) holds more value than ValueCos. Beyond estimating SG&A, margins and growth, their skillset isn't additive toward forming a big picture value on whether today's SPX fwd PE is sustainable. Most analysts have probably underperformed index wrapping in QQQ/NDX in trying to craft their own discretionary L/S portfolio
Significant amount of expertise, bias and perspective may soon be displaced. This feels like a turning point similar to that the energy boom/bust, where massive droves of $$ came in and chased US energy returns, only for 90% of private capital funds to bust later on
How much hidden leverage and related party transactions are in place? How much contagion is there if US exceptionalism starts to erode? These are not questions frankly anyone has the answer to bc the fabric that has held risk assets together has not seriously been challenged, with band-aids put in place each time a leak threatens to form
