three manias, three costumes, one distribution. icos: ~10% survived. over 80% classed as scams. of the 2017 class, 46% dead within months. memecoins: under 2% of tokens graduate. ~96% of wallets either lose or clear under $500. ai: ~80% of startups projected to fail by end of 2026. 60–70% of wrappers generate zero revenue — not low, zero. 95% of enterprise genai pilots deliver no measurable roi. median lifespan about 18 months. that third one is the interesting one, because nobody calls it degenerate. same shape every time. capital floods a new category, a handful of winners take nearly everything, the long tail pays for them. we just name it differently depending on who's holding the bag. gambling when it's a dog. a market correction when it's a seed round in san francisco. the distribution doesn't care what you call it. no crying in the casino.

in 2013 a drunk guy typo'd "holding". there's now a bitcoin etf with the ticker HODL. a field guide to the trenches. for anyone who's never been in, and anyone who forgot how unhinged it is.