Core Contributor of PFR Capital 猪脚饭资本核心志愿者 情感动作博主 Not Financial Advice 不做投资建议
🦇🔊
Joined January 2018
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玩了一下模拟人生
太虐了，跟着这位老哥体验他的一生
出生在塞拉利昂（我都不知道在哪）
一生被病痛困扰，每次生病就要负债，一直到快70了才摆脱债务。因为没钱就没法接受教育，成年了也没法找到好的工作，一直恶性循环。小的时候喜欢的足球也放弃了。长大了也只能打工资很低的工作养活家人。然后哥们又特别能生，一生2次婚姻生了7个孩子（2个夭折）但每次能够选择的时候我都尽量选择生病的时候去医院。并且力所能及的保持良好的关系。在非洲能活到79也算是高寿了。而且还4代同堂，跟子女的关系都很好。也算是圆满的一生了。
其实人生中很多东西都是我们没办法控制的，出身，疾病，意外等等。即使我们可以控制的重大决定，也不一定能够左右我们的一生。
一生中最重要的只有三件事，健康的身体，好的亲密关系，和良好的经济基础。
这很区块链
币圈最好笑的一幕来了：
自己的钱有风险，马上就能冻，别人的钱被朝鲜偷了，却说什么都做不了，因为我们是去中心化😂
Bitget CEO Gracy Chen @GracyBitget 公开喊话 THORChain，把朝鲜相关洗钱地址拦一下，THORChain回得特别有 Web3 精神：
「我们和比特币、以太坊、BNB一样是去中心化的！」
去年Bybit被黑14.6亿美元，那一周THORChain处理了46亿美元swap，光手续费就收了500万美元。
黑钱倒是收的挺爽，说不定还想给Lazarus办个超级 VIP呢。
到了2025年，自家 THORFi 借贷爆雷，2 亿美元资金缺口，协议一键熔断、暂停赎回、冻结用户资金，动作比谁都快。
说好的去中心化呢？
最魔幻的是，THORChain 本来就是独立链，一百多个节点运营商用 TSS 管着金库，只要签名够了，资产就能动。不是做不到，是不想做。
还有人拿以太坊 The DAO 举例，说链不能干预。2016 年以太坊为了追回 6000 万美元，社区直接硬分叉回滚了一条链。历史早就证明，没有什么绝对不能干预，只有愿不愿意干预。所以 THORChain 不是去中心化，是薛定谔的去中心化。
去中心化，不该成为洗钱免责声明。
早上起床惊闻 $CME 跑路了。
很奇怪，20m的时候没跑，3m的时候跑了。一共也就rug了不到20万u. 前前后后build了不止1个月。
你要是tm缺钱直说啊，兄弟们给你凑啊。这是何苦呢？
举报疑似挪用 CME（Commodites.Market）商品池资金并转入 Binance 的异常资金
币安风控团队您好：
我希望举报一笔疑似涉及项目方擅自撤出流动性池资金，并通过跨链方式转入 Binance 的异常资金流。
涉及项目为 Commodites.Market（CME），运行在 Robinhood Chain。近期我们通过链上数据发现，项目相关地址正在批量将商品代币流动性池中的 USDG 主动撤出，并通过 Relay 跨链至 BNB Chain，随后兑换/结算为 USDT，再转入 Binance 充值体系。
目前已经确认的一条完整资金路径如下：
CME 商品池 USDG
→ 项目部署/运营相关地址
→ 0x338A3b6B0EAbc0EfdD1AeA33e81E57C102158D8C
→ RelayDepository
0x4cD00E387622C35bDDB9b4c962C136462338BC31
→ BNB Chain
→ 收款地址
0xa2197016fe0fc61cd8a656d38d593cb125b87295
→ Binance 充值体系地址
0x8894E0a0c962CB723c1976a4421c95949bE2D4E3
其中一笔已确认：
源链 Relay 存款交易：
0x7b5eff15ca5841e4cdb0870a16a35aa524f85ab789903154bf35358232f3ff96
该交易在 Robinhood Chain 调用：
depositErc20(...)
存入：
59,100 USDG
Relay 随后在 BNB Chain 完成 Fill，到账约：
58,905.3 USDT
目标地址：
0xa2197016fe0fc61cd8a656d38d593cb125b87295
之后该资金进一步流入 Binance 相关充值地址：
0x8894E0a0c962CB723c1976a4421c95949bE2D4E3
我们此前还观察到项目相关地址存在多笔相同金额的批量操作，包括多笔 59,100 USDG 被送入 Relay，疑似存在系统性撤出商品池流动性并转入中心化交易所的行为。
值得注意的是，这些资金原本来自项目商品代币相关流动性池。部分池子的 USDG 被大量撤走，只留下极少量流动性。目前尚未看到项目方公开说明这些资金属于正常迁移、资金重组或其他已披露用途。
因此，我们怀疑这些资金可能涉及：
项目流动性资金异常转移、未经社区或用户充分披露的资金撤出，或潜在的资产挪用行为。
恳请 Binance 风控团队协助：
核查上述 Binance 充值地址所对应的账户及资金来源；
对相关账户及后续资金流进行风险审查；
如符合 Binance 风控、反洗钱或涉诈处置标准，请对相关资金采取必要的限制或保全措施；
保存相关账户登录、充值、提现及资金流记录，以便后续如有执法机构调查时提供协助。
我可以继续提供完整链上交易哈希、Relay 跨链记录、商品池撤资记录、相关地址关系图以及截图证据。 robinhood:0xe2324ff2a59f8ecba8c321c6466e59121c00e795
@launchonCME
@binance @cz_binance @heyibinance @evilcos
让正义降临，让邪恶的人受到应有的惩罚
据财新报道，德州扑克高手、加密投资者胡哲文曾于 2021 年 5 月至 2022 年 5 月投入约 8,000 万美元买入 TerraUSD（UST）和 LUNA，持仓市值最高超过 8 亿美元，随后 LUNA 价格接近归零。胡哲文目前已在美国芝加哥起诉 Jump Trading 及其加密业务相关公司和高管，索赔至少 5 亿美元；其还曾投资 Stratis 并自称获得超过 1,000 倍回报。2025 年 1 月，胡哲文投资张永锋创办机构发行的代币，该代币较 2025 年高点下跌超过 99.6%；胡哲文已以“证券欺诈”等指控将张永锋告上法庭。
wublock123.com/news/caixin-h…
这回 $GME 真的变成deepfuckingvalue了
GameStop $GME is one of the most misunderstood companies in the entire market. Wall Street has left the company for dead. Every sell side firm has dropped coverage and zero hedge funds will own this because of the former meme stock hair.
Now the stock trades dirt cheap with $5 billion of cash, $5 billion of ebay stock (10% of the entire company), $300 million of bitcoin and $2.8 billion of zero percent convertible debt.
You are buying the core business for $4.1 billion. The core business that has completely transformed itself into a highly cash generative card store.
Management has turned around the entire company and it is not a dying retailer anymore. It is a cash generative cash machine flipping Pokemon, Magic The Gathering and One Piece cards. Cards are one of the hottest markets in the entire world right now and Wall Street is asleep at the wheel.
Unit economics are stunning. There are 1,600 stores in the U.S. $1.9 million sales per store. 45% gross margins at the store level. Four wall EBITDA per store of $580k. This is a four wall margin of 30.6%. There is very little capex and inventory is mostly financed by vendors and there is a float business with the trade-ins with in-store credit zero percent debt.
Management is guiding to $650 million of EBITDA for the full year. They are sandbagging the number HARD. I am pulling data from ebay and GemRate and total Pokemon sales in August were up 30% m/m. The highest monthly sales ever recorded.
In addition, the 30th anniversary for Pokemon occurred on September 16th. It was the biggest coordinated Pokemon event in history. I went to a dozen of GameStop's and local card shops and they were all sold out. Lines out the door. The phone ringing off the hook. Wall Street is completely unaware that GameStop is flipping cards in size and has transformed their business model.
Finally, Q4 is the company's biggest quarter and there are more events for the 30th anniversary landing in the quarter. For the full year, I am modeling in excess of $850 million of EBITDA, $200 million ahead of management's sandbagged guide.
Management likely knows this. Ryan Cohen bought $20 million in the open market, and other C-Suite executives followed along with numerous buys, just days ago. And then the company announced they will be reopening stores, for the first time in many years. The payback on reopens should be less than a year.
I see the company trading at 4.7x EV/EBITDA, and over 90% of that EBITDA should convert into free cash flow, or a 20% free cash flow yield on the enterprise value. Wall Street is completely missing the story and asleep at the wheel with drool running down their big fat bellies.
There will likely be push back on the ebay acquisition, but I encourage everyone to actually dig into the deal. It could be transformative and there are many synergies that Wall Street idiots are missing. Wall Street suits have no idea how the card market has been gamified and turned into a lottery ticket system that has become extremely addicting on apps like Whatnot. In addition, Ryan Cohen is an All Star capital allocator and operator, an extremely rare combination, and a platform like eBay is right up his wheel house.
I built a website below that has a 34-deck slide, highlighting the thesis. Have fun and check out my analysis and website. I am long $GME and find the thesis asymmetric.
deepfuckingvalue.com
