J. Boyd

In 2020, I ran against Scott DesJarlais in Tennessee’s 4th Congressional District. Measured against the district’s fundamentals, I was the top-performing Democratic congressional candidate in the state that year, and I still lost by 33 points. On Tuesday, that district flipped, making it the most Republican seat in the country to change hands. The 4th today looks very different from the one I ran in. The May gerrymander cut several rural counties along with some of the more conservative parts of Rutherford County. In their place, Republicans added a slice of South Nashville. Much of the analysis has missed what that slice did. It moved the district 16 points to the left and brought in the most heavily Latino population in the state. ICE raids terrorized this part of Tennessee throughout 2025 and into 2026. They radicalized voters in Antioch, Smyrna, and La Vergne, where Latino families have lived for upwards of 60 years. Republicans were arrogant. This was Victoria Broderick’s second run. She is arguably the most progressive federal elected official in Tennessee’s 230-year history, but people in this conservative district knew her name, liked her authenticity, and saw her as a far better choice than the scandal-plagued DesJarlais. No doubt she faces an uphill battle in 2028. Still, her win is the first hard evidence of a slow, quiet shift among voters across Nashville, Tennessee, and the rural South.