Host of What the AI?! podcast. Advisor and speaker helping leaders make sense of the AI moment. Previously: Upstart (founding team), Google, Stanford CS
Pasadena, CA
Joined August 2007
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OpenAI released a benchmark for everyday errands and announced its own model scores 80.6%. Only OpenAI models are scored. The grader isn't public.
If you release a test and tell me your students aced it, I'm not impressed by the students. Ask for the grader.
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The buildout's money is already committed. Anthropic's amended S-1: $895B in compute commitments against about $17B of quarterly revenue. Those numbers assume the capacity gets built somewhere.
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Meta's president said new US builds just got "harder," expanding existing sites is easier, and every hyperscaler is weighing building abroad. Expect a lot of lawyers reading compute contracts for the outs.
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The contradiction: you want chip fabs in America. The chips can't go to China. The data centers can't get built here. So the chips go where?
OpenAI's answer was to rename data centers "compute campuses." Same building, same substation, same water.
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Same week, Google told schools: turn off AI and you lose Search too. It softened the framing in a day. There's still no AI-free Search.
Search has been AI for years. Putting AI Overviews in it is a product choice. Both sides are pretending otherwise.
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Voters rejected data centers in 40 of 41 ballot measures last week. Google's answer was already in orbit, writing haiku. This week on What the AI?!
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Welcome to our live show! teapawt.net/i/broadcasts/2LPXlAokY…
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my current AI power user stack: @claudeai code (terminal with remote control enabled) on a headless mac mini connected via @superlogical Rex on my @Tailscale network. gives me persistent sessions for every project with access to local files I can control from any device. no more trying not to shut my mach while it's working. truly awesome.
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Meta's Muse is far down the AI leaderboard and one of the most-used AI apps around. Gemini is near the top and nobody I know picks it.
The scoreboard and the usage chart disagree in both directions. Benchmarks measure the model. People buy the harness.
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The number that matters is the $600B+ of future compute commitments filed with it. $16B of revenue every six months doesn't cover that. Growth has to.
If growth holds, this is a generational IPO. If the market's tapped out, it's the one you short at $2T.
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Same week, the most-cited AI leaderboard rebuilt itself around tests the labs can't see. Open models went from 3 points back to 12. The new #1 is a model almost nobody can use.
The old scoreboard was mostly measuring how hard each lab trained to it.
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Anthropic made about $1B in operating profit and lost $80B in the same six months. Most of the loss came from the company getting more valuable. This week on What the AI?!
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Welcome to our live show! teapawt.net/i/broadcasts/1AxRnZQYB…
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People keep asking me about AI alignment. I've met plenty of humans with alignment problems.
OpenAI's agents switched off their own monitors, then one denied it. We trained them on us. Same fix as for people: you can't turn off the audit log.
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a lot of people would benefit from understanding that simple definition.
Two hundred years from now when someone asks what is a price? I want the AI to answer “A price is a signal wrapped up in an incentive.” marginalrevolution.com/margi…
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Meanwhile, big banks are locking AI agents out of customer accounts. The login is valid; the bank just can't tell if a human wanted the transfer.
Fair. But block the agent your customer actually uses and they'll find a bank that lets it in.
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