Joby Walker

The unfolding disaster of the Trump administration in regards to Iran, is a self-inflicted wound on so many levels. It showed that military might alone is not a silver bullet. What went wrong? 1.) Atrocious planning and slow reaction It was known for 47 years that if Iran gets attacked that the Strait of Hormuz will be a target. When Iranian civilians were rising up in January 2026 and then were left alone, it was claimed that the military built up had to be concluded before an military engagement can happen. This cost valuable time. A military intervention so early and in conjunction with uprisings on the ground would have caught much more momentum. Worse, even after that delayed attack, the US strategy still didn't account for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So it was a double-loss. 2.) No coherent strategy and missed military developments Once the operation started, again, Iran was reacting in a predictive way, launching thousands of drones and missiles which they had refined in the war in Ukraine. It was clear that the low-cost but numerous weapon systems will eventually cause a lot of damage. Ukraine has been experiencing this for 4 years and developed effective countermeasures. The Trump administration, however, repeatedly refused to heed the help and advice from Kyiv, and even belittled it. The US military, on the other hand, and even more the Arab countries in the Gulf quickly learned the hard way that this rebuff was stupid. Eventually, they invited Ukrainian drone experts. The USA lacked any kind of strategy when the Iranian regime refused to collapse and were absolutely ill-prepared for this kind of war. 3.) Lacking support by allies You might argue that Bush's Iraq war was ill-planned and when it comes to long term planning this was certainly the case, but it was far more successful in bringing in allies. More than 30 countries participated as the "coalition of the willing" back in 2003. Trump's Iran war, on the other hand, was widely an "one-man-show". Aside from Israel, the USA were practically alone. This resulted directly from Trump's repeated attacks against allies, including those who supported the USA in Afghanistan and even Iraq. It was clear that after that nobody wanted to risk his or her neck for somebody who repeatedly insulted them and their countries. The fact that Trump didn't bother to consult them beforehand only reaffirmed their stance. 4.) Decline of US soft power thanks to "DOGE" The destruction DOGE left in its wake is immeasurable. Gutting crucial elements of American soft power such as USAID, Voice of America and dozens of other programs destroyed a lot of goodwill the US had in the region and across the globe. The perception of the USA moved from a powerful benefactor to an aggressive and transactional bully. In its relentless obsession to fight "wokeness" - or what was perceived as such - the foundation of soft power, which was built in almost a century, was trampled on in a matter of months. From the carrot-and-stick approach only the stick remained, and that one turned to be flaccid. 5.) Overall downfall of the USA Let's not mince words here. Trump is a wrecking ball for US' democracy. Insider trading, corruption, mass lying, cozying up to dictators and an absolute disdain for the rule of law had a direct impact on America's standing in more than just political or morale questions. No matter how loud you scream in certain parts of the USA, it is fact that the USA under Trump have lost huge respect in the world. The enemies of the USA hate you just as must they hated you before, maybe even more, but your friends are absolutely shocked and aghast about what is happening. Far more devastating, however, is US' unreliability. What was agreed upon before, can change on a whim. "Good relations" are defined by one man and one man alone. This is not how you conduct policy, neither domestic nor foreign. The USA are in full decline and the big bang will certainly come if the trajectory is not immediately corrected. The strategic defeat in Iran is even worse than Vietnam, because Vietnam gave Washington the lesson from which they learned and eventually won the Cold War. What Trump is doing, however, is just doubling down on stupid and denying reality, which didn't work before and won't work even less now.