So hyperscalers up on the thought that their free cashflow will improve due to data center moratoriums. Logic makes sense. But hyperscalers WANT to spend more because they know it leads to more free cashflow in the future. Semis down but nvda only down 2% when a fear of a dc slowdown is taking over. NVDA would probably be down 5-6% if the index was flat I think.
yields down due to "less capex" and oil down for some unknown reason. Im now 40% cash(was 35% but the drop in equity value took it to 40 LOL), no worries. No rush to buy.
My thought is the hyperscalers likely expected a democratic sweep and have been overplanning for next year with the expectation that some projects get put on hold. We have even heard of double orders for some power equipment-logic is sound, can't be sure.
I dont think AI is "over" but I think retail is too used to buying the dip and getting a quick recovery, give it at least a few weeks to see how this plays out.
told everyone to raise cash in late sept and right at the top on october 6th-those who listened saved themselves. Some of those who didnt are crying the market is rigged/scam etc etc. Oh well thats life. I'm healthy and rich, just not as rich as I was a few weeks(or months) ago. Will definitely have another epic run when the rookies are obliterated.
$VICR serious question, if a "large hyperscaler" signs a 2 year license for NBM products in 2025 that expires at the end of 2026...when would they be discussing the renewal? And if they tack on a VPD license like the 2 most recent licensees have, I imagine the price would be a lot higher than just the NBM license right?
$AAOI outperforming $LITE and $MRVL today, just an observation. I own both aaoi and lite, lite position is very small, aaoi position I'd call medium sized. I expect this deal to ultimately benefit AAOI the most if they can meet even 85% of their expected ramp the next few quarters. The market cap discrepancy is pricing in catastrophic failure which I doubt happens.
this would be bullish if successful
🇮🇱 LIBERMAN BACKS EISENKOT, RULES OUT COALITION WITH NETANYAHU
Israeli opposition leader Avigdor Liberman reportedly said his party will recommend Gadi Eisenkot to lead the next government.
Liberman reiterated that Benjamin Netanyahu must leave office, ruling out joining a coalition with him even under a rotating premiership.
He also said Yair Lapid wants to become Speaker of the Knesset and pledged support for his candidacy.
This $MRVL/ $LITE deal becomes really bullish for $AAOI for two reasons. Even with no premium on the deal....currently LITE is 12x or so AAOI market cap. AAOI 2028 capacity is set to be half of LITE's. Yes there's execution risk, I'm well aware and was one of the few pounding the table in 30s and got laughed at for selling 2/3 at 130 the first time it got there LOL.
That being said, MRVL willing to pay half their market cap for LITE just validates the importance of having laser manufacturing capacity. Shit on AAOI mgmt all you want, their scale is going to be tremendous and they will have even more than LITE as far as American Capacity goes.
Lastly, LITE bulls disappear and many wont hold MRVL. Photonics bulls have less names to go after. AAOI benefits. One of the names I nibbled on today. Could go much lower, my base case is the index isnt done dipping yet, but base cases don't always play out so worth a nibble.
Stay tuned for more. Hopefully serenity disagrees with me, that'd make more bullish.
Nice day to be heavy in cash? Only tiny nibbles, very tiny today. Looking for more panic. But trump could also save the market with a bullshit statement sunday night and we chop around a few more days/weeks. Core positions in tact, 35% cash. Zero stress.
$CBRS green while semis red a day after the bullshit hit piece. Go figure. Holding 1500 shares now. This will end up looking like a cyber security play after a few more incidents and deployments take place. Might go lower after earnings, my full position is not built yet. Will wait for after earnings, if it runs before I have full size-oh well. If it dips on no bad news-I'll add more eventually.
$GOOG capex for full year reiterated. $MSFT likely does the same even though both q3 #s were soft. Prob just waiting for Rubin and turning down more blackwell shipments in q3.
$MRVL buying $LITE rumor-wow. Been nibbling LITE below 900.
If MRVL really pays up over 100b for LITE, $AAOI CAN go to 200 within a quarter or two IMO. Shows just how valuable having laser capacity is.
$CBRS hit piece-gift if msft capex reitertated(likely)-VICR would've fell hard if this hit piece was real-it held up like the champ it is. Own both, but more VICR, way more VICR, like 30x more.
Fun day.
