Why is no one talking about how Apex has been raising their prices of their 50k EOD evals? They raise it $5 every few weeks or so. In February they were $20 and now they’re $50… bruh wtf. If they keep raising them, they’re gonna lose their competitive advantage, which is that they have the cheapest evals (at least upfront I mean).
#apextraderfunding @ApexTradeFund
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John retweeted
I have cracked the fucking code.
We bottom this year August-September latest. Earlier than previous cycles.
It then takes $BTC just under a year to create a new ATH.
Based on the math, we are 427 days from creating a new all time high.
And we are 120 days from creating a bottom. That means... we form a new ATH precisely between April and August 2027.
Based on this metric, we have completed 75% of the bear market.
In this image, I am measuring the time from each election to the first bull market peak, as well as how long it takes Bitcoin to surpass that peak following the subsequent election day.
The cycles are accelerating, with shorter bear markets and faster recoveries.
In the next 1 year, I’m either going to look like a genius or a complete fool. This is my prediction based on current patterns and their timing.
John retweeted
🚨 PAY ATTENTION
Bitcoin’s next cycle bottom won’t be defined by price.
The only thing that matters now:
Time.
Every Bitcoin cycle follows the same structure:
35 bars expansion + 12 bars contraction.
2015–2017: expansion
2018: contraction
2018–2021: expansion
2022: contraction
Now look at where we are.
The expansion phase is complete.
The contraction has just begun.
And this phase always takes time.
Days from cycle top → final low:
2012: ~400 days
2016: ~360 days
2020: ~370 days
We are not there yet.
Based on historical timing, the highest-probability window for the real bottom is:
July–November 2026.
That matters more than any price level people are watching.
Most traders think like this:
“I’ll buy when it hits X.”
But real bottoms don’t form at obvious levels.
Below $50,000 I’m a buyer. Regardless of when it happens.
July–November 2026 I’m a buyer. Regardless of price.
If one of those conditions is met, I buy.
No hesitation.
Yes, I started accumulating in the $60k range already.
Even though the timing window isn’t here yet.
Back in October, around $120k,
I said I’d be a strong buyer near $60k.
People ignored it.
“BTC will never go below $100k again.”
Now we’re here.
And there’s still one signal missing:
NUPL.
Every major bottom:
- 2018
- COVID
- 2022
Formed when NUPL entered the blue zone.
We haven’t seen that yet.
Remember: For the record, I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October.
If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
John retweeted
I backtested a simple strategy on Bitcoin since the October 2025 top and found a shocking statistical anomaly.
$10,000 invested. Buy and hold every day and you would have $5,324 right now, down 47% on your investment.
Same $10,000 invested but you skip Thursdays and you would have $8,256, down only 17% on your portfolio.
So, one day of the week accounts for a 29% difference on your portfolio. Thursday has been red 72% of the time since the ATH. I calculated the probability of this happening by a random chance and it is only 2.16%.
Thursdays alone have a cumulative return of -35.51% since the top and the entire bear market so far is -47%. So, just one day is doing 75% of the damage.
If you had done absolutely nothing except close your position every Wednesday night and reopen it every Friday morning, you would have saved 29% on your portfolio.
So, the interesting fact is that this bear market is not happening equally across all 7 days. It is happening only on Thursdays.
John retweeted
Here are 20+ projects with tradable tokens that Yzi Labs (CZ) has invested over the past year. 👇
Aster @Aster_DEX $aster
Hemi @hemi_xyz $hemi
Velvet Capital @Velvet_Capital $velvet
MEET48 @meet_48 $idol
Avalon Labs @avalonfinance_ $avl
Gata @Gata_xyz $gata
Plume Network @plumenetwork $plume
Vana @vana $vana
Blum @blumcrypto $blum
Sign @sign $sign
EthenaLabs @ethena $ena
THENA @ThenaFi_ $the
USUAL @usualmoney $usual
BIO Protocol @BioProtocol $bio
TaleX @TaleX_chain $x
BounceBit @bouncebit $bb
Lombard @Lombard_Finance $bard
Sophon @sophon $soph
Renzo @renzoai $rez
Solv Protocol @SolvProtocol $solv
StakeStone @Stake_Stone $sto
MyShellAi @myshell_ai $shell
NFP @nfprompt $nfp
John retweeted
My base case for those who don't get the nuanced view:
BTC.D rejected at 0.786 Fib Level (66%) just like it was rejected at 0.618 Fib level (60%) last year.
ALT/BTC is up because ETH/BTC is up
But ALT/ETH is bleeding
So ETH is better than ALTs.
Remember ALT/BTC pairs have found a local low every June from 2022-2025).
ALT/BTC rally will likely end by late August at the latest
BTC.D rally in Sep-Oct
ETH/BTC higher low in Sep/Oct
ALT/BTC pairs lower low in Sep/Oct (could be beginning of Nov).
Hard to know if the next rally by BTC.D leads to a higher high even if ALT/BTC pairs put in a lower low (as it depends on how high the next higher low is for ETH/BTC).
Look at what ALT/BTC pairs did from July-August of 2017 and see how they still dropped to 0.25 by late October.
Look at how while ALT/BTC pairs are up, ALT/ETH pairs are down 40% since ETH "went home."
I could be wrong about any one of these views, but these are my views.
When something I posted above is inevitably wrong, you are welcome to post this receipt and laugh.
Also, I'm not talking about your alt.
John retweeted
Still the biggest alpha I shared on 𝕏
Reduced position size doesn't mean reduced profit
It can actually mean increased profits because you'll be willing to hold through drawdown
New traders especially don't like to see red
90% of your trades will be underwater at some point
John retweeted
Just a reminder that you can actually make more money reducing position size and diversifying into multiple positions rather than being overly exposed to 1-2 positions.
So many reasons why:
1. Less likely to close early on a dip.
2. One asset can be down but other assets in your portfolio will pump making the laggards/losers less significant or noticable
3. Drawdown is less worrisome when it's smaller $ amounts
4. Keeps you from making emotional decisions and allows you to let your positions run to target or stop loss
5. You won't be staring at 1 minute charts all day because they're less significant.
6. You'll stop focusing so much on getting the perfect entry and focus more on getting in on a good set up and will catch more opportunities.
John retweeted
Timing the market is 100% more important
time in the market
Can you believe some people believe the otherway around?
People will really argue that being accurate is less important than just yeeting your money randomly
Thats how you end up poor and a bagholder in anything.
Timing. Matters.
John retweeted
#Bitcoin important Top Goon X sell approaching alert update:
Interestingly enough we bounced (again) after the sell approaching alert given.
Key resistance is the 0.786 fib. If we reject there we can drop back to 0.236 fib and below that would see new lows again
If we can reclaim and break above 0.786 fib we can see a new ATH around the $120k area and it would likely happen pretty fast.
Then $120k area (1.337 fib) would be ultimate bull trap (like we saw last cycle at 69k) or we would break through that and mega vertical moon straight to $200k.
Those are the scenarios and the key levels to watch dictated by Top Goon X rules.
#Bitcoin
Key fibonacci level for Top Goon X weekly sell approaching alert for those asking.
$102k area most important.
Need to reclaim $86,250 resistance on daily for a potential bounce to that level.
John retweeted
I strongly disagree with this (very common) approach.
The “buy coins and wait” strategy is, in my opinion, outdated. While it might still work in some cases, the odds have never been worse.
The reality is that nobody knows how long this bearish chop or downtrend will last (it’s already around 2months). By the time the market reverses, many coins that currently seemed like “good bets” might be outdated, no longer fit the prevailing narrative, or have too many bagholders—making them a worse investment than simply buying newly emerged coins when alts overall get bullish again.
A real altseason brings tons of runners and fresh opportunities every day.
You can easily be 20x+ richer if we have bubble or alt szn and CHANGE UR LIFE+ become financially FREE
But if no bubble prices, ur gonna stay where u are or be broke either way
So you have only 1 option:
Accumulate coins that can be trading at 20x+ higher prices and change ur life in a bubble
+ Short on small time frames with money u set aside specifically to trade with that u can lose, in case we have prolonged period of downturn where most lose their money and sanity
Then use those gains to buy more coins or survive
This is what I’m doing to maximize both directions and my future.
John retweeted
Not many people will be able to entertain this...
But there is a high chance we see the Top for Bitcoin at the end of March.
Specifically, March 24th or 25th.
With a cycle top price of $182,000.
And the data strongly supports this.
You can see from this chart that price moves in expansive and corrective phases.
Whenever we get a 5 wave expansive/impulsive move, a long period of consolidation follows...
Leading to another expansive move.
Between March 2023 and October 2023 we had a 7 month consolidation period.
This was followed by a 5 month expansive run that has two major impulses... and In between those impulses is a mini correction phase.
This correction phase lasts for 9 weeks.
After this expansion we had a 8 month consolidation period.
And after that we just had the next expansive move to the upside.
And where are we right now?
We are almost at week 9 in the mini correction between the two main impulsive legs that make up the larger expansive move.
The fractal that is overlaid is an exact copy of the previous expansive move, and up until right now, we are following it to a tee.
- Initial leg
- Mini correction(almost at 9 weeks)
Next up is second impulse of the move and the final part which will take us to the cycle top at $182,000 on March 24th/25th.
You can snuff at this, say "price will never move that much in that time...
Well, it literally has moved in this exact manner several times before.
And it is currently following this exactly.
If this is to play out, it means we will begin the start of the final leg for Bitcoin next week. At the end of week 9.
This is consistent with my overall cycle top of thesis of between $150k - $210k, with the top being in at the end of Q1.
In addition, this all lines up with every other chart that matters.
- BTC.D topping
- ETH/BTC bottoming
- OTHERS.D bottoming
- DXY topping
The stars are aligning and its all right there.
This kind of move will catch almost everyone off guard.
We have all become accustom to slow and grinding PA that never sustains.
And that is by design.
Almost no one is expecting this kind of aggressive price action, yet, the data is all there to see.
As well as large institutions and governments buying heavy and suppressing the price with shorts.
This would mean a top for Bitcoin in March.
Dominance will drop aggressively and alts will probably push hard until April/May.
Next week it is now or never for the final leg and alt szn.
My money is on now.
Buckle up.
John retweeted
Virtuals is a text book example of 'fake it till u make it'. Bc they are REALLY faking it.
Key = capitalize fast and be the first mover.
This is not me hating, but simply observing:
> it all started after GOAT happened and they got attention Luna being the 'first'. But in fact, luna was a pseudo adult content creator for simps on TikTok. They copied GOAT fast and brought Luna content to X. But, people were and still are not impressed by her content. Hence why it isnt valued nr1 despite being the first.
But:
> the team is smart, as for their really limited agent launchpad, they paired all of it with Virtual tokens. Besides that, top 10% of wallets of 80% of supply (!). Nobody gives a sh*t bc it made the price pump a lot. And well, price = king always and it shows. Price up= gud tech = attention.
>Bc of this, they were able to attract devs just to tokenize their agent + launch on their platform. Why? Well, its easy for them bc the attention / volume is there. But all of the top agents DO NOT use their framework. If it wasnt for @aixbt_agent, virtuals wouldnt be here today. They even call it 'aixbt by virtuals', while Virtuals is nothing else than a defi protocol (on this case). Before shifting, it was only using waifu tech to tokenize and launch adult ai agent content creaters like OF (lol).
So, why am I telling u this? Well, I admire how they capitalized on the whole meta and have done a really good job. But, it also shows us that it doesnt mean that virtual is unbeatable. In fact i believe the solana frameworks are fundamentally way better and will outcompete in the long run. But, especially on BASE, there is a lot of room to capture market share. As Virtuals currently seems as the only big player there (for now).
