John Mason (@johnkmason) profile picture

Public equities/options, card product @mercury. Eternal superalloy cubes @ https://teapawt.net/t.co/fz34u7r194.

North America
Joined April 2014
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lol this was lucky $SKHY $000660.ks
Answer was yup. Closed $SKHY $000660.ks again. Just skittish with the memory trade.
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NP, but incredible alpha here in biotech. Could have seen these $IOVA results at 7:20am and shorted at 7:30 for a 25% gain in an hour.
Listen, we all *want* $IOVA to help lung cancer patients, but these updated data are just bad. Very bad. You could tell as soon as there was no mDOR in the press release (the last PR *did* disclose mDOR - why are they hiding it now?). The slides confirm that the new responses are VERY short. Not good at all. Sure, the ORR went down a little bit, but only by 1%. It is the lack of any durability in the new cut of patients that is the huge problem. The first cut had 4 patients still responding >1 year out - several of them 2-3 years out! Not bad back then - but this new cut has no responders even *close* to that degree of durability. So far, of these new patients, it looks like 1 might have made it past 1 year but has already progressed since then. There are WAY more early progressors in this new cut by my read of the data. Of the new confirmed responses, only 2 appear to be ongoing at ~4 and ~6 months. 4 other responders appear to have all progressed in the ~4-8 month range. VERY poor durability. This looks like 2x as many relapsers in that 4-8 month range compared to the first dataset *with* fewer responders in the new cut overall... There were also 0 new CRs in the new cut. CR rate now <3%. The reason this new trend of very short durability is especially alarming for $IOVA is that this new cut of data uses the less intense LD chemo regimen that the FDA made them use following a death and trial hold earlier on in this study. It looks like the less intense LD they are having to use is leading to markedly worse durability. If you look at mDOR of *just* the new, reduced intensity LD, mDOR is looking like, what? Maybe 6-8ish months? And the overall population certainly looks like it will be <1 year mDOR...the initial datacut was >2 years! Huge drop off looks likely. Again, bummer. We obviously want lung cancer patients to do well. But facts are facts and to me this just doesn't look encouraging relative to what $IOVA had presented before. I know the cult trolls will be after me for pointing out the crash in durability, but whatever. Your cult leader biotechscammer is saying these are the best data ever, like he has done nonstop for 5 years straight. Let's see what reality has to say about that, and how that might inform who these cultists listen to someday.
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$MRK with a last-gasp Keytruda beat… but no news on Tulisokibart. Slides still just say Aug PCD. Compare Q2/Q3 slides below- Q2 said “Signif late-stage pipeline milestones expected in next 6 months” and Q3 says “over next 12 months.” We’ll see what they say on call. $ABVX
MRK: we actually hold Tulisokibart data until Temu obefazimod causes cancer.
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Obligatory:
it is honestly quite baffling to me that openai and anthropic still use slack. i expect this will change within the next six months. they could quite clearly build and maintain internal versions that are *more* secure, robust, and featureful with a team of ~10
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Answer was yup. Closed $SKHY $000660.ks again. Just skittish with the memory trade.
Nibbled some $000660.ks $SKHY sub 1.45m here. Am I gonna get to load up at 1.3m again?
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Does Belen Garijo got that dog in her? $ABVX ft.com/content/e481233f-77bc…
Replying to @johnkmason
(2/4) IMO comes down to whether $SNY's brand-new CEO Belen Garijo/board have the balls to actually bet most of remaining BS on $ABVX. Though presumably Belen brought in with mandate to make moves given the dupi cliff (see next tweet).
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If no one else steps up to bid $ABVX higher than her max bid of €15B, could see her taking the shot. Launch obe, finish the Crohn’s trial, setup a bunch of combos, ride off into the sunset as the savior of Sanofi and curer of IBD?
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Reminds me of this tweet by @Biohazard3737. She would be remembered for obe, and being end of career, I bet she cares about that. Also funnily enough she certainly remembers Winrevair specifically from her vantage point as Merck KGaA CEO seeing the launch across the pond!
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A couple $ABVX notes, incl a strong source of copium for me as I baghold (am down ~$50k YTD on it but feelsbad given +~400k previously): 1. There are 2.1m M&A linked shares from the 2025-1 AGA. 475k are MdG's. All expire YE 2027. So $178m of employee value lost if no txn by YE.
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Scenario 1: Say $ABVX acq for $100/sh (illustrative). He now owns 2.45m shares worth $245m. Scenario 2: No $ABVX acq. Loses 475k shares. Say re-granted another ~$10m/115k M&A shares at $85. 2.09m shares post-YE27. He would need an acq of ($245m/2.09m)=$117, or 17% higher, for it to be equiv to acq prior to YE27. I think he'll sell.
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Also, sidenote: Fabio had 562k unvested shares- with 75k vesting in Sep. Using Didier Scherrer's exit as a comp, assume they sweetheart Fabio also and he forfeits just 65%. So say 365k, minus 30-35k for Rabbat's promo. So that's minus 1/3 mil shares from the share count, nice.
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Pretty remarkable. This is a quote that will likely update a lot of priors in the coming days/weeks (as it has mine): "There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized."
Brains were indeed broken.
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Picked up some $NU overnight at $11.75
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2.5x'd pos. Probably finished adding unless it gaps down more
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Trimmed the $11.75 basis lots at $12.31. Keeping the rest, ideally til next tax year at least
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If this is true whoever holds whatever gets bought out is going to be max blessed to get liquidity in such a target rich environment. $ABVX please 🥰
FWIW hearing from M&A focused banks that there are multiple deals in the works and sounds like a couple of substantial ones could get announced in the near term (weeks). Will hopefully help with sentiment for biotech $XBI $BBC
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One last note. I gotta say, after staring at comparison tables all day between obefazimod vs tulisokibart, omvoh, duvakitug, Tremfya, and icotrokinra, it is pretty wild how good the obe data is, ESPECIALLY given trial design/reporting. Like why did $ABVX mgmt design the trial to be basically total hardmode (and then STILL crush)? -Just 8 week induction vs 10 or 12 -Took ALL-COMERS (come at me bro) refractory patients with UNLIMITED prior therapies (which btw explains obe trial's low placebo CR/ER rates) vs others' trials that limited to patients who tried max 1-2 therapies prior -Absurd endoscopic remission #s (~40 pbo-adjusted!), which many don't even report (just improvement)
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@seedy19tron with Icotyde trial design as an example of the max prior therapies point: teapawt.net/seedy19tron/status/211…
Replying to @charlie_lees
Good results small caveat, Ico $PTGX excluded pts who had failed 3+ advanced classes and anyone with prior p19 exposure. Obe's $ABVX ph3 enrolled 47% AT IR, 21% JAK IR, with no cap on prior failures, and showed a Δ29 response at 50mg in the 4+ failure group. Also Ico 12W vs 8W Obe, and we know response improves over time.
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@DaveARicks you could be the greatest pharma CEO ever by presiding over not only the cure to obesity with tirz but also UC/probably CD with obefazimod. WITHOUT clinical OR reg risk and with a discount from cancelling EMERALD-3. And you haven't yet, because you want to be cheap...?
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