Associate Professor @SAISHopkins. Former White House industrial policy economist. On bsky @jonasnahm.com 🏳️‍🌈

DC/SF
Joined July 2014
1/ Dan Wang’s NYT essay on TSMC's Arizona plant argues that TSMC is doing for America what Apple did for China. But the analogy rests on two assumptions and it's not clear that either one of them is holding. nytimes.com/2026/10/23/opini…
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10/ Allied industrial investment depends on engineers being able to enter and stay. Enforcement volatility and unpredictability can undo a project much faster than subsidies can attract a new one.
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11/ One quibble: the essay doubts Germany or France could land TSMC and integrate Asian families. ESMC Dresden — TSMC with Bosch, Infineon and NXP — broke ground in 2024. Mature nodes and far smaller, but the JV puts three European chipmakers a position to learn from TSMC.
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1/ Von der Leyen just offered Canada "associate membership" in the EU in her State of the Union address. Carney was in the chamber. Standing ovation. Perhaps the clearest sign yet that some countries are actively trying to build a new architecture for global trade.
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9/ But the attempt itself is important. Countries that lack the size to set terms unilaterally are looking for frameworks that bind everyone equally, including the powerful. Whether they succeed is uncertain, but they are trying, and finding each other.
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10/ Rules-based trade — economic relationships governed by stable, predictable frameworks rather than the preferences of the powerful — has become more attractive, not less, in a world of tariff volatility. Countries are not abandoning that idea, but are fighting to preserve it.
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