Joyce Mo

People often ask me: How do you identify a potential breakthrough at pre-seed, when there is only an idea and a deck? At Riceberg Ventures, we use a four-pillar framework. We are happy to share it. 1. Value chain optimization We ask what problem the founder is solving. Then we go a step further: how is that problem solved today? If the answer is “nobody solves it,” we usually push back. A genuine need often has an existing solution or workaround, even if it is expensive, slow, unsafe, or ineffective. Fusion may be a new way to produce electricity. But the need for electricity already exists, and current ways of meeting it can be mapped and priced. We ask founders to draw that end-to-end value chain. Then we compare two worlds: one where their technology exists, and one where it does not. How much better does the overall solution become? Cheaper? Faster? Safer? More effective? In life sciences, a more expensive solution can still make sense if efficacy improves enough. We look for an overall improvement of roughly 4–5x over the status quo. The relevant measure depends on the problem. 2. Market size Once we understand that improvement, we can work toward a plausible price and estimate how many customers need it. That gives us a bottom-up market view. For the venture opportunities we pursue, we look for markets measured in tens of billions, rather than a few hundred million. 3. Defensibility If the team cracks the technology, what stops someone else from immediately copying it? A patent may be the right protection. A trade secret may be better. The choice has to fit the business. We do not expect technical defensibility to last forever. We do want a meaningful early barrier that gives the company time to build its advantage. 4. The team's right to win The first three pillars help us decide whether this is a problem and an approach worth backing. They do not automatically tell us to invest in the first startup that brings it to us. We still have to ask: why this team? What is their particular edge, the “secret sauce” that gives them the right to win? That assessment varies by sector, industry, and stage. It deserves a separate post. For us, identifying a potential breakthrough and choosing the team to back are connected decisions. Both need to stand up to scrutiny. How would you test whether a team's advantage is real at pre-seed? Maybe that's something for another post. 😉 #BackingTheBreakthrough

SF → NY → Singapore → back to SF. One round of the Earth later, here we are at SF Tech Week. 🌎 Didn’t have the energy to organise another formal event talking about big things in the world. So this time, we’re opening up our home rooftop to wind down. No pitches. Just music and good company. We have a piano, Siggi travelling all the way from Iceland to play it, my dear friend @ericwassonburns bringing his violins, and me dabbling on the cajón. Hopefully the weather joins the band. 🎹🎻🥁 Got a rooftop-friendly talent? Juggling? Something we haven’t thought of? Mention it in your registration—we’re already at capacity, but we’ll review requests from people bringing something to the evening. It’s our home, so please be mindful of our community and neighbours. Bring good vibes. Let’s have some fun. Connections will happen when they happen. partiful.com/e/v4p7pFib6ijU6…