@jremis

Né à Gijon, Asturias, Espagne. Astronome, lecteur et cinéphile.

 Saint Avold Moselle
Joined November 2009
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New paper out on arXiv: arxiv.org/abs/2607.20128 It explains a lightweight way to predict atmospheric re-entries using only public TLEs. My hope is that some of you will jump in and start making your own predictions, with this method or any other you prefer. More voices, more analysts, more independent checks. Give it a look. #SkyfallWatch

Predicting Atmospheric Re-entries Using Segmented M/A Calibration...

We present a reproducible method for predicting atmospheric re-entries using only publicly available Two-Line Elements (TLEs). The approach is based on a segmented calibration of the effective...

arxiv.org
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Update: obj. 44741 STARLINK-1036 decay prediction: October 27, 2026 UTC 23:38 ± 2h
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Update: obj. 7003 AUREOLE 2 decay prediction: October 27, 2026 UTC 15:53 ± 1h
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Obj. 100083 RASSVET-3 17 decay prediction: October 30, 2026 UTC 21:53 ± 15h
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Update: obj. 101147 HAWK 16 A, B & C ELECTRON R/B decay prediction: October 30, 2026 UTC 21:27 ± 15h
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Update: obj. 44741 STARLINK-1036 decay prediction: October 27, 2026 UTC 22:24 ± 3h
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Update: obj. 7003 AUREOLE 2 decay prediction: October 27, 2026 UTC 14:53 ± 1.7h
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Update: obj. 44741 STARLINK-1036 decay prediction: October 28, 2026 UTC 01:13 ± 5h
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Update: obj. 7003 AUREOLE 2 decay prediction: October 27, 2026 UTC 14:51 ± 4h
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Update: obj. 48582 STARLINK-2236 decay notice: October 26, 2026 UTC 13:22 ± 1h A deorbit maneuver was performed this morning, significantly shortening the satellite's expected orbital lifetime. The object has most likely already re-entered the atmosphere.
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Final TIP: 2026-10-26 UTC 13:03:00 ± 1min 36.2S 55.1E satflare.com/track.asp?q=485…
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Update: obj. 48582 STARLINK-2236 decay prediction: October 27, 2026 UTC 05:15 ± 4h
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Obj. 44741 STARLINK-1036 decay prediction: October 28, 2026 UTC 03:25 ± 9h
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Update: obj. 48562 STARLINK-2187 decay prediction: October 25, 2026 UTC 22:02 ± 1.5h
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Final TIP: 2026-10-25 UTC 21:03:00 ± 1min 27.7S 67.1E satflare.com/track.asp?q=485…
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Obj. 671022 STARLINK-36255 decay prediction: October 25, 2026 UTC 17:47 ± 1.4h A major deorbiting maneuver has increased the effective area from 5 m² to 18 m². This prediction assumes that the effective area will remain constant at 18 m² until re-entry.
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Final TIP: 2026-10-25 UTC 15:38:00 ± 1min 11.6S 140.9W satflare.com/track.asp?q=671…
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Update: obj. 46066 STARLINK-1525 decay prediction: October 25, 2026 UTC 08:47 ± 1.8h The effective area has remained constant at approximately 5.2 m². The present prediction assumes that this value will remain unchanged until re-entry.
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Final TIP: 2026-10-25 UTC 08:20:00 ± 2min 30.3S 126.5E satflare.com/track.asp?q=460…
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Obj. 101147 HAWK 16 A, B & C ELECTRON R/B decay prediction: October 30, 2026 UTC 07:27 ± 24h
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Update: obj. 7003 AUREOLE 2 decay prediction: October 27, 2026 UTC 11:34 ± 8h
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Obj. 48582 STARLINK-2236 decay prediction: October 27, 2026 UTC 02:43 ± 8h
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