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不定时分享信息和想法:t.me/ksreads
2015 年,Google 投了 9 亿美元给 SpaceX,故事是卫星上网。
2026 年,这笔钱变成了 800 多亿,Google 还在持续加仓,故事变成了 TPU 上天。
模型不行,叙事来凑。
BREAKING: Google’s parent Alphabet added another 3.85 million shares of SpaceX in Q3, its latest SEC filing shows.
Alphabet held 555 million shares worth $83.7 billion as of Sept. 30. SpaceX alone made up nearly 95% of its reported stock portfolio.
Google first put $900 million into SpaceX in January 2015. By the end of Q3, the stake was worth about 93 times Google’s original investment.
AI 制药的卡口,到底在 DNA、蛋白,还是更下游的动物实验?
聊卖铲人,很多人先想到 Twist、金斯瑞,依据是 AI 相关订单和业务增长。但订单增长,和客户绕不开你、你能持续提价,是两回事。
“湿实验”和“DNA/蛋白”也不是二选一。湿实验就是拿真实的分子、细胞或动物做验证,DNA 合成、蛋白表达、测定筛选、动物实验,都在里面。真正要拆的是:哪一步的合格供给跟不上,短期又补不出来?
看好合成环节的人,押的是更多设计需要被做出来、测出来,再把数据喂回模型。质疑方则认为,合成可以扩产,客户也可能自建;动物实验的资源和验证周期,可能更难压缩。
动物实验这头已有涨价信号:财联社询得的个别食蟹猴初步报价达到每只 25万—26万元。相关公司,国内有昭衍新药、药明康德,海外有做临床前安评的 Charles River,以及提供实验猴和相关服务的 Inotiv。
接下来值得追的,是谁真能把供给紧张变成持续利润,以及现在的股价已经反映了多少预期。
最近在想,半导体的卡口逻辑,能不能迁移到生物科技?
AI 能提出更多候选方案,也可能提前筛掉更多方案。最终需要付费做的湿实验——也就是在实验室里,用真实的分子、细胞或动物开展验证,而不是只靠计算机模拟——究竟会净增多少?
也许问题不在于需求增长几倍,而在于合格供给能否跟上,以及客户能不能绕开这个环节。
湿实验成为瓶颈的可能性成立的话:那么卡住的是设备产能、实验质量,还是不可压缩的验证周期?谁又能把这种稀缺变成持续的定价权?
“大部分流量来自 9 点到 5 点、 个人agent流量增长不明显”,
AI Agent 帮大家解决了很多工作,释放了打工人大量的时间和精力,所以大家工作时可以去摸鱼了?
Interesting bits from Brian’s Airbnb earnings call about AI agents and consumer behavior:
— Airbnb gets ~500k bookings a day
— ”very non-material” traffic from Muse/Instinct
— says people *want* to browse: average user looks at dozens of listings and 25+ photos
— 90% of users message the host
— most traffic comes between 9 to 5 when people are at work (using Airbnb as escapism)
— 80% of travels say they like doing their own travel research
Ks retweeted
In the Backpack tokenomics, we have one guiding principle.
- Insiders "dumping on retail" should be impossible: no founder, executive, employee, or venture investor should receive wealth from the token until the product hits escape velocity.
Of course it begs the question, what does it mean to "hit escape velocity". Every project is different, and it's impossible to generalize. For Backpack, the answer is clear: we want to IPO in the USA. Going public might happen quickly, it might happen not so quickly, and in fact, it might not happen at all. In any case, we're going for it.
But before going public, we have to grow--a lot. The odd thing about Backpack's growth over the past year--and in fact one of the things that makes Backpack so different from basically every token project in crypto--is that, today, Backpack Exchange only serves about 48% of the world. We've been very slow, very intentional about opening up our product to the world, ensuring that we have every "i" dotted and ever "t" crossed as a regulated financial institution. Growth that sometimes feels like running with a parachute, but we are happy to take the long path, because it's precisely that parachute that will allow us to fly.
For those that don't know us, the reason for this is simple. Backpack is trying to not only build great crypto products, but we're also trying to build great TradFi products. We're trying to not only give our users access to every crypto asset, every blockchain, and every decentralized application, but we're also getting banking rails around the world, USD client money accounts in the USA, EUR in the EU, JPY in Japan--every currency on every major payment network you can imagine. We're trying to build a great securities product, whether that's getting access to your favorite stocks in a traditional brokerage or bidding on primary shares of a company about to go public on NASDAQ. We want to serve not only retail users worldwide, but we want to serve regulated products for regulated counterparties and regulated institutions around the world. All of this takes an enormous amount of time, effort, blood, sweat, and tears. We've been working on this for over three years at this point, laying an international foundation for the company and for the product slowly but surely, brick by brick. If we're lucky, we'll spend a lifetime.
What this all means is that, in the most literal sense--and I know this sounds silly--we're just getting started. We still have half the world to open up into. We still have some of our most exciting products to launch. And this leads to our next guiding principle in our tokenomics.
- Liquid tokens should exclusively go to users, fueling growth triggered by key product milestones.
Every time we open up a new region, every time we launch a new product, that's an opportunity to grow. Open up EU => grow. Open up Japan => grow. Open up the USA => grow. Open up predictions => grow. Open up stocks => grow. Open up card => grow. Like gasoline onto a fire, the token serves to continuously kickstart new markets in the same way points kickstarted Seasons 1-4.
With every growth lever we pull, tokens unlock in a predictable way to users, bringing in a new wave of token holders, growing the community, and allowing the product to soar to new heights. The objective constraint for this to work is precise: the value of added growth created by new token unlocks must always be greater than the dilution of those unlocks. As long as that condition holds, we can continue to unlock tokens direct to our most active users, growing along the way.
Last but not least is the question:
Ok so if all the liquid tokens are going to users, then what about the team? How exactly do you remain incentive aligned while ensuring the team cannot unlock, dump on retail, and become enormously wealthy without building something great?
And the answer is simple: not a single founder, executive, team member, or venture investor has been given a direct token allocation.
The entire "team allocation" sits in a "corporate treasury", i.e. on the balance sheet of the Backpack company--locked until at least one year post IPO. The team owns equity in the company, and the company owns a large percent of the token supply. It's not until the company goes public (or has some other type of equity exit event), that the team can earn any wealth from the project. It's not until the company has access to the largest, most liquid capital markets in the world by going public--and it's not until the company has done all the hard work to earn access to those markets--that the team can reap the rewards of the value created by the Backpack community from now until then.
We either go big, or we go home.
Ks retweeted
Replying to @qinbafrank
写完这篇之后收到一些反馈,我可能还是低估了开源模型在北美的投入和扩张速度
当时找不到北美除了几大token factory + AWS bedrock + azure其他的来源,aws/azure可能会有2B+,比我预估的1.5~2B ARR要略大一点
对开源低估的部分来自于国内厂商拿着巨额现金到美国找算力,这是我始料未及的
按现在的算力租赁价格,开源可能多个零点几GW,不影响文中结论,但走势值得关注
也就是说,中国开源模型不等满足国内需求,主动出海,那就得关注下还有没有接力的巨额资金到北美做开源
总结:本月Broadcom从高点跌15%的同时GDX涨35%;Moderna一天暴涨后暴跌;Mag7、黄金、石油、比特币已不再同步“风险偏好”联动。追逐昨日热点,就容易成为下一轮轮动的接盘侠。
不是不看好,是觉得还有机会,等待十月
re understanding your edge at a table full of funds with more information and collective brain power than you
One of your advantages over funds as a personal investor is the ability to be CASHED UP. Funds and PMs get questioned if they do not deploy capital over prolonged periods of time. They have to be in the market, its their job. You don't have to! Make full use of that!
People often get caught offside because they get greedy and hooked on beta. You see your portfolio inch up daily due to beta and fall into the trap of thinking that lasts forever. Don't be a victim of that. Personal investing unlike fund management is not a game of competition. Fund management is a game competition and relative returns, personal investing isn't. You don't have to make more money than the people around you. You just have to make the right bets when the time comes to make them and avoid losing money. Its a game of patience.
Ks retweeted
Personally think Aug / Sep could be pretty decent for the markets again (especially AI complex) given:
- At higher prices, the market was negatively surprised by (a) US-China gap rapidly narrowing, (b) frontier model observed growth & progress slowing, and (c) increased concern around CapEx ROIC.
- The profit-taking then liquidation that ensued has mostly run its course, taking out over-levered retail and institutions. It appears the market is now pricing (a) a very narrow US-China gap, (b) stagnated frontier model, and (c) poor ROIC on AI CapEx.
- However, signs are increasingly favoring the opposite:
(1) Soundbites increasingly louder on RSI, which puts upward pressure on compute and can further widen US-China gap
(2) OAI / Anthropic pushing new models soon & ARR accelerating after OSS-induced slow-down.
(3) Multiple datapoints (Deepseek transcript, Kimi action, AMZN / GOOGL / MSFT print) indicate ROIC is excellent and will be increasingly so given contract ASP bump + OSS routing.
Assuming AGI trend is intact, think likely Leopold raises significant amount of new capital and, along with everyone levering up again to buy the dip, think decent odds of a continuous rally in the AI complex led by Mags + Neoclouds & select semi names, even back to ATH again over the next 4-6 weeks.
Obviously subject to macro and new info but R:R finally reset to be favorable.
KOSPI 暴涨 17.91%;外资净买 7.24万亿韩元、机构净买 1.14万亿,散户净卖 8.27万亿。
近5日外资累计净卖已收窄至 0.06万亿,但近20日仍净卖 3.79万亿;机构20日累计净买 6.13万亿。
挺夸张的
你最大的敌人是你自己
Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund was up 439% after fees at the end of June. Five weeks later, Citadel owns every public stock it held.
The speed of the roundtrip is wild. Aschenbrenner is 24. He left OpenAI in 2024, published a 165-page essay arguing AI would demand a historic buildout of chips, memory, and power, then raised billions on the strength of the argument. Investors treated the essay as a prospectus. By July 1 the fund had grown to $45 billion.
The portfolio was the essay in trade form. Long the physical layer of AI, with SK Hynix, Micron, Sandisk, Nebius, and CoreWeave among the largest holdings. Short the software companies he believed AI would commoditize, including Adobe. Levered on both sides.
Then July happened. His four largest US holdings each fell more than 35% in a month. The software shorts ripped against him at the same time. A book built to win in two directions lost in both at once, and leverage turned a drawdown into margin calls. His prime brokers spent the past week scrambling for cash.
On July 24, with losses already mounting, he sent investors a letter calling this one of the best buying windows since early 2025 and inviting fresh capital on August 1. Six days later the entire public book went to Ken Griffin in a block trade.
What remains is a roughly $5 billion stake in Anthropic and a handful of private holdings. The fund built to trade the AGI transition is now, functionally, a holding company.
Two years to build $45 billion. Four weeks to hand the public book to Citadel.
买入 $NBIS 的驱动原因:
- 看见 @MapleLeafCap 和 @qinbafrank 关于DS梁文锋的十个月收回成本的讨论 teapawt.net/qinbafrank/status/2082… 得到新叙事:“Neocloud/CSP可以通过部署开源模型卖token以替代之前提供GPU的方式来大幅提升收益”
- @pima 大佬时隔多年重新复出在一众Neoclouds夸了 $NBIS teapawt.net/LeePima/status/2082135…
- 最后离不开 交易之神 @diamondhandjs 的买入,给出了信号。teapawt.net/diamondhandjs/status/2…
- 当然了这波短期40%的拉升,和之前看到驱动原因的关系并不是很大,但是长期来看这确实是一个新叙事。在我心里是可以媲美Semi的新叙事。接下来会继续研究的,然后耐心等待。
- 没事,之所以把所有的记录当放上来,一是这个账号粉丝超级少没什么包袱,二是交易美股这俩月以来学习的真是太多了多记录记录,就当学习了。
- 前两天买的NBIS仓位出掉了 手上储存的仓位还在
- 这是自己这两天的心理变化,记录一下吧
- 需要优化的地方很多很多,继续进步吧
- 接下来就是找机会把储存出掉,然后等机会看neocloud。时间周期是这两三个月。
Replying to @justapein
这次需要反思的点还是挺多的,6.10第一次58买完就涨起来了最高80,中间波段做着没多少盈利反而把持仓均价搞上去了。中间7月初第二次加仓选了kioxia,后边的下跌大家也知道了,位置和标的都非常不好。再到现在最后一次选了mu。如果能等到现在再出手,试错空间会是很大的,但是没有如果,再跌的话就要考虑是不是全部止损了,储存是不是要被证伪等等。
Ks retweeted
The world’s solar capacity hit 1,419 gigawatts in 2023, radically more than forecast by any major forecaster 🚀🚀
An energy-rich future is not just some environmentalist fever dream. Our special issue explores how the exponential rise of solar power will change the world econ.st/3KYy0tn
噪音很多了啦 学会找主因并屏蔽干扰因子。拍供给端的时候捕风捉影个个门清,拍需求端的时候,一问一个不吱声次次预测次次错。模型端是 AI 行情的发动机,来拍个国内国外御三家模型 6/12/18个月后的 ARR 分别都是多少?本身就是很难的事叠加动量因子爆棚,波动率陡升。
另外值得关注的就是 Inference Platform 慢慢要显示业绩了,DS 说的6倍利润 10个月回本,大概就是 80% 往上的毛利(智谱才 20-30%的毛利);Anthropic 一季度 1600万/MW 二季度末直接能 3200万/MW,综合下来毛利也差不多80%,说明“冠军上单亦有差距”国内外第一都是如此,但是第二模型就立马毛利拉开很多。
我本来以为一旦开源的智力完成追赶会把最优模型闭源,次优模型开源,但是 DS 要一直开源的话,给了推理层很多机会,看看 Baseten 3月ARR 6亿,估值130亿;Fireworks 10亿 ARR, 175亿估值, 包括Together AI。这导致了一个跟以往不同的商业故事:你的开源,我的利润。
从而变相给能垂直整合的云服务商增加了创收渠道,这个时候再回头看 $Nebius 5月份收购的推理平台 Eigen AI 就显得弥足珍贵了 ,Token Factory 跃然纸上,越往后可能越会发现不是每个 Neocloud 都能成为云巨头


























