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JustValue

@justvalue2

Security analysis, investing news, reports, shareholders' letters and investment thesis. Tweets are never investment advices https://teapawt.net/t.co/JX6NBqxzf1

Joined November 2018
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Rollins $ROL Q3 gave us the first real test of my thesis. Customer acquisition weakened. Retention did not. Fox and HomeTeam kept growing. The moat may be less about one dominant brand and more about the ability to change how the route gets filled.
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JustValue (@justvalue2) profile pictureJustValue@justvalue2Oct 16
Rollins ($ROL) looks AI proof until you ask how the next customer finds Orkin. AI is not disrupting pest control itself. It is testing customer acquisition. The key question is whether $ROL can keep routes full without sacrificing returns.
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Rollins ($ROL): What Q3 taught us about filling the route justvalue.substack.com/p/rol…
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The AI boom is building a financial network few investors fully see. One company's revenue is another's debt, collateral or guarantee. Who bears the risk if AI demand disappoints?
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JustValue@justvalue2Oct 16
Rollins ($ROL) looks AI proof until you ask how the next customer finds Orkin. AI is not disrupting pest control itself. It is testing customer acquisition. The key question is whether $ROL can keep routes full without sacrificing returns.
🤖 Made with AI
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JustValue retweeted
Jenato (@jenato2) profile picture
Jenato@jenato2Oct 16
Rollins ($ROL): Cuando la IA cambia la forma en que se llena la ruta, by @justvalue2 justvalue.substack.com/p/rol…
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Rollins ($ROL) looks AI proof until you ask how the next customer finds Orkin. AI is not disrupting pest control itself. It is testing customer acquisition. The key question is whether $ROL can keep routes full without sacrificing returns.
🤖 Made with AI
Image from JustValue (@justvalue2)
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Rollins ($ROL): When AI changes how the route gets filled justvalue.substack.com/p/rol…
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JustValue@justvalue2Oct 6
Roper has fallen sharply, but the business hasn’t broken with the stock. The real story: one of the market’s best serial acquirers now finds its own shares competitive with the private companies it normally buys. $ROP
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Roper has fallen sharply, but the business hasn’t broken with the stock. The real story: one of the market’s best serial acquirers now finds its own shares competitive with the private companies it normally buys. $ROP
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Nike’s Q1 FY27 call had some useful read-throughs for the broader sporting-goods sector. The message: demand is not uniformly weak. Product newness, scarcity and distribution discipline matter more as category growth matures. $NKE $ONON $DECK $AS $ADS.DE $DKS $JD.L
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Scarcity is an economic asset. $NKE is cutting Jordan supply because over-distribution hurt desirability. JD made a similar point on Salomon XT-6. Positive: $AS, $ONON , selected $DECK franchises. Warning: any brand that scales heat too aggressively.
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Wholesale matters again. $NKE is rebuilding retailer relationships, with strong Performance sell-through across $DKS, $ASO and $JD.L. That strengthens the best retailers and reinforces the broader sector takeaway. Sporting goods is becoming a share-gain market, not a rising tide.
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$NKE Q1 FY27 is not one turnaround. It is three. Running is recovering. Sportswear/Jordan are being deliberately shrunk. China will likely get worse before it gets better. The key question is no longer whether Nike can recover, but what a normalized $NKE can actually earn.
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$FICO has fallen ~70% from its highs while the business remains highly profitable. VantageScore is already entering mortgages; the real question is whether FICO can preserve premium economics in a multi-score market. Buying opportunity or value trap? That’s the debate.
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A lot has been made of the idea that hyperscalers are hiding trillions of dollars of AI debt off balance sheet. The reality is more nuanced, and more interesting. $MSFT $META $GOOGL $AMZN $ORCL $CRWV $NVDA
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justvalue.substack.com/p/the…
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Some interesting sporting-goods read-throughs from JD Sports’ HY27 earnings call, following my recent sector research notes 🧵 $DKS $ASO $ONON $DECK ASICS (7936 JP) $AS Adidas (ETR:ADS), $LULU $NKE JD Sports (LON:JD) Puma (ETR:PUM), $UAA $SPWH
JustValue (@justvalue2) profile pictureJustValue@justvalue2Sep 22
Check out my new post! ASICS (7936 JP), Amer Sports ($AS), Adidas (ETR:ADS), lululemon ($LULU), Nike ($NKE), JD Sports (LON:JD), Puma (ETR:PUM), Under Armour ($UAA) and Sportsman's Warehouse ($SPWH)
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Women's apparel increasingly rewards speed-to-market. JD highlighted frequent adidas drops and faster reaction to trends. Positive: adidas. Potential negative read-through: $LULU if slower product cadence is part of its current weakness.
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Scale, data and tech are becoming real retail advantages. JD has 10m+ loyalty members; members drive higher AOV, while AI tests improved sales/markdown outcomes. Positive: JD, $DKS. Negative: smaller retailers such as $SPWH.
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