juan v. retweeted
#NotasDeInteligencia
Buena observación de @PatoAviador que me hace recordar este viejo tuit de mi serie del General y el Analista 👇
Sobre las amenazas de bomba a aviones comerciales, hay una posibilidad que me inquieta particularmente y es que el propósito no sea únicamente provocar perturbaciones, sino observar cómo responde el sistema.
No me refiero necesariamente a preparar un atentado. Podría tratarse de comprobar qué autoridades reaccionan, cuánto tardan, cómo coordinan las decisiones entre países y cuáles son las consecuencias de diferentes tipos de amenazas.
No tengo, evidentemente, pruebas de que ese sea el objetivo, pero a estas alturas, si algo está claro es que estamos ante algo más que una simple gamberrada.
👀
Something very strange happened at the Communist Party's 5th Plenum last week, its most important meeting this year.
They issued a massive resolution at the end of the meeting together with an official commentary on it by Xi Jinping and, if you read both, you're left with one overwhelming impression: it's crisis time inside the Party.
I'm not exaggerating, check the vocabulary they're using: Xi talks of "viruses eroding the Party's healthy body" (侵蚀党的健康肌体的病毒, qīnshí dǎng de jiànkāng jītǐ de bìngdú) and "stubborn chronic diseases" (顽瘴痼疾, wánzhàng gùjí), with problems so "shocking" (触目惊心, chùmù jīngxīn) that the Party has to "turn the blade inward" (刀刃向内, dāorèn xiàng nèi) - in effect, self-mutilate to get the poison out.
Heck, it was the very theme of the meeting: all about hard discipline with Xi saying he wants to send "a strong signal that things will get stricter the further we go" (越往后越严, yuè wǎng hòu yuè yán).
You don't do that when things are going well.
Except that - and here's the paradox - factually speaking, things are going well in China. One can even say that - looking back centuries - China is at the very height of its power.
This is no exaggeration either: China makes nearly 30% of everything manufactured on the planet, has a record $1.19 trillion trade surplus despite Trump's tariffs, and is in the lead in 69 of 74 critical technologies according to the (hardly pro-China) Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
It's also, geopolitically, more secure than it's been in a long time: in a truce with Washington with Xi having just been welcomed at the White House with a pomp very few have ever been granted - Trump personally waiting for him on the tarmac - while the rest of the world keeps flocking to China, now the world's favorite diplomatic destination.
So what gives, how do you reconcile these 2 things?
I'd argue that China is having its own Fukuyama moment, except in reverse.
Remember the West in the early 1990s at the height of its power: Francis Fukuyama declared "the end of history", with liberal democracy as the "end point of mankind's ideological evolution".
In other words we concluded we had reached perfection, that there was nothing left to fix. History had ended: we were the final form of human civilization. Maximum hubris.
We all know how long that lasted...
China, now at its peak, is taking the exact opposite route. This is not just a supposition by me: last week's resolution literally makes it a rule - the longer the peace lasts, the more the Party must "strengthen its sense of peril" (增强忧患意识, zēngqiáng yōuhuàn yìshí) and "think of danger" (思危, sī wēi).
China, officially, also keeps referring to the so-called "cave dialogue" (窑洞对, yáodòng duì): a 1945 conversation in Yan'an where an educator, Huang Yanpei, warned Mao that every Chinese dynasty had followed the same arc - tough at the start, then soft and rotten once comfortable.
"Good times create weak men", basically, 80 years before the meme.
Which is an old Chinese idea: 2,300 years ago, Mencius summed it up with 生于忧患，死于安乐 (shēng yú yōuhuàn, sǐ yú ānlè, "adversity keeps us alive, comfort kills us").
The resolution, and Xi's commentary on it, keep referring to this new strict doctrine that's officially called "self-revolution" (自我革命, zìwǒ gémìng) as the "second answer" to the "cave dialogue". In other words as China's way of escaping history, of preventing the "good times create weak men" curse.
So, it's "end of history" versus "escaping history", maybe both hubristic in their own way - nobody escapes history forever - but with one big difference: the first stopped looking for its own flaws, the second has made obsessing about them its official doctrine.
That's what I look at in my latest article - from a 3,000-year-old bathtub inscription to the 42 generals who fell off their horses - and why China's obsession with its own flaws might be the most underrated strategic advantage in the world. Or its biggest weakness: arnaudbertrand.substack.com/…
juan v. retweeted
🚨🇫🇷FLASH INFO - À Bordeaux, la police utilise des véhicules Centaure équipés de canons à son !
L’ONU a alerté sur les dangers de ces armes, qui peuvent provoquer des lésions auditives, des ruptures du tympan et des troubles de l’équilibre.
juan v. retweeted
Miles de muertos, generaciones de hombres ucranianos desaparecidas, el país en respiración artificial asistida vía dinero público europeo pero el jefe de la OTAN sueña con el fin de la guerra para pillarse un pedo con Zelenski en Suiza.
Y lo dice riéndose. Hay que ser hijo de.
juan v. retweeted
#Estrategias
A ver, que esto ya lo dijo Kissinger en 1994
*Sin Europa, América se convertirá en una isla geopolítica aislada del principal bloque continental del planeta, Eurasia, condenada a una especie de política pura de equilibrio de poder que no refleja su genio nacional*
Ihr müsst jetzt stark sein, wenn ihr das noch nicht wisst. Ihr müsst jetzt ganz stark sein!
Oberst Lawrence #Wilkerson, pensionierter Offizier der US-Armee und ehemaliger Stabschef des Außenministers, spricht das Offensichtliche laut aus: Die USA habe Europa nicht nur beeinflusst, sondern das Europa, das wir heute sehen, bewusst erschaffen.
- Die CIA hat mit Hilfe von SIS, MI6 und später Mossad die politische Landschaft Europas akribisch nach dem Bild gestaltet, das Washington wollte.
- Dies war kein organischer Aufbau von Allianzen. Es war eine langfristige Operation.
- Sie kauften Zeitungsredakteure.
- Sie kauften Gewerkschaftsführer.
- Sie kauften Parlamentarier.
- Sie kauften zwei NATO-Generalsekretäre: Jens Stoltenberg und Mark Rutte.
- Sie kauften ganze Länder, indem sie deren politischen Apparat kontrollierten.
- Ab 2002 flossen Milliarden von Dollar durch die CIA und die USAID.
- Die liberale Demokratie selbst wurde als Waffe eingesetzt.
- Wilkerson stimmt zu, dass die amerikanischen Geheimdienste die Ausbilder waren.
- Europa stellte sich gegen Russland, gegen die Diplomatie, gegen seine eigenen Interessen, weil es dafür ausgebildet und bezahlt worden war.
Die Stoltenberg-Operation:
- Wilkerson war bei der Beförderung von Jens Stoltenberg „direkt an der Leine“.
- Washington beobachtete, wie lenkbar er innerhalb seiner eigenen Regierung war, und nutzte ihn als Dreh- und Angelpunkt, von dem aus sich der Einfluss auf andere Hauptstädte ausbreitete.
- Stoltenberg kalkulierte richtig: Loyalität gegenüber der amerikanischen Linie würde ihn zum nächsten NATO-Chef machen.
Die Rutte-Operation:
- Niederländische Medien enthüllten später, dass Mark Rutte als Ministerpräsident fast alles, was Israel tat, entschuldigte, eine besonders harte Linie gegenüber Russland verfolgte und die Bombardierung des Jemen unterstützte.
- Der Zweck war klar: sich bei der Bewerbung um den Posten des NATO-Generalsekretärs gut darzustellen.
- Washington hatte bereits deutlich gemacht, welche Qualitäten belohnt werden sollten.
Der Holocaust als Druckmittel:
- Mit Hilfe des Mossad wurde die anhaltende Last des Holocausts auf die europäische Politik gezielt ausgenutzt.
- Deutschlands strenge Antisemitismusgesetze und -vorschriften wurden mit amerikanischer Unterstützung so gestaltet, dass dieses Instrument weiterhin zur Verfügung stand.
Fazit:
Amerika hat Jahrzehnte und Milliarden Dollar darauf verwendet, die politische Klasse Europas zu kaufen, gefügige NATO-Führer zu installieren und ganze Regierungen darauf zu trainieren, auf Befehl zu bellen. Nun ist dasselbe Europa schwächer, unterwürfiger und folgt immer noch Befehlen, die seinem Überleben nicht mehr dienen.
Dies war niemals ein Bündnis unter Gleichen. Es war ein Produkt.
Dank an t.me/unzensiert
juan v. retweeted
#Apuestas
Me juego un café a que sale alguna empresa de seguridad aérea a sugerir entrenar su IA con los datos de estas amenazas de bomba a vuelos comerciales para diagnosticar si son ciertas o falsas
Del cerdo... hasta los andares
@SaTNiL01 @wish_or_truth @PatoAviador
Algo bastante preocupante está ocurriendo en la aviación europea. Entre ayer y hoy, al menos siete vuelos comerciales de distintas compañías han recibido amenazas de bomba, obligando a activar protocolos de seguridad en aeropuertos de Polonia, España, Italia, Bulgaria y Hungría.
Algunos aviones han tenido que desviarse, se han movilizado equipos de desactivación de explosivos e incluso se ha cerrado temporalmente un aeropuerto. Afortunadamente, las inspecciones realizadas no han encontrado artefactos explosivos.
Con la información de que disponemos, aún no podemos afirmar categóricamente que exista relación entre estos incidentes, pero semejante concentración de amenazas en tan poco tiempo resulta, cuando menos, llamativa y creo que merece una investigación a fondo, pues para provocar importantes perturbaciones en el transporte aéreo no hace falta colocar una bomba en ningún avión. Basta con formular amenazas suficientemente creíbles para obligar a activar los protocolos de seguridad.
juan v. retweeted
If by "people" he means "the entities we have engaged to short oil," then this Tweet is spot on.
juan v. retweeted
Otro pelotazo de los amigos de Trump que apostaron a la bajada del precio del petróleo mientras nos avisaban de la llegada del apocalipsis
juan v. retweeted
Tucker is being fed this idea in order to intimidate Iran. A better way of thinking about this is to consider it yet another instance of the nuclear threats that the US have made this year against Iran to no discernible effect.
juan v. retweeted
Tener o no tener Energía, ese es el reto
Power is Power
The chart below shows electricity prices in Europe just now, priced per MWh. Just horrific and economically ruinous for any modern economy.
The world spends about $4.2 trillion on electricity and this is split between:
• Generation (2/3
• Transmission & Distribution (1/3)
The world spends around $1.5 trillion on capex and $2.7 trillion on opex. The $1.5 trillion capex gets you 1-2% capacity growth each year. So a rough rule of thumb is that every 1% of GDP you spend on power infrastructure gets you 1-2% more electricity.
If you wanted to grow your power supply by eg 8%, you might expect that to cost 6% of GDP. Nobody has the supply chain to do that, if you want to grow this particular supply chain it will cost you more GDP points on second order things.
Now…
Demand for power around the world is booming, because of 3 big technology trends.
1. Air Conditioning (yes still) +20% consumption
2. Electric Vehicles +80% consumption
3. AI Data Centers +XYZ% consumption
Different regions have different progress on these three trends. US has a lot of AC, little EV and a lot of DC, Europe has little AC, lots of EV little DC. China has a lot of AC and EV.
Now generation splits into fixed costs for the generator plant (site and technology specific) and variable costs for fuel.
Dispatchable Power Cost, by Fuel Type
1. $6 / MWh - Uranium
2. $19 / MWh - Nat Gas 🇺🇸
3. $22 / MWh - Coal 🇺🇸
4. $40 / MWh - Coal 🇨🇳
5. $90 / MWh - LNG
6. $130 / MWh - Biomass
7. $160 / MWh - Nat Gas 🇪🇺 🇯🇵
8. $200 / MWh - Oil
Fracking has given the US a structural energy cost advantage. If you talk to people in China about what is the most impressive thing the US has done they say “fracking”. The challenge with US Nat Gas is that it’s now fully developed and expansion is sort of tapped out.
What the 21st Century demands is a lot of power, you either have it or you don’t. When you look at planetary scale energy and compute trends you see myriad gigantic arbitrage opportunities.
Interesting times!
juan v. retweeted
Geçtiğimiz günlerde kaybettiğimiz Marksist iktisatçı Guglielmo Carchedi, Michael Roberts ile bu çalışmasında emperyalizmi, yüksek teknolojiye sahip emperyalist ülkelerin düşük teknolojiye sahip egemen ülkelerden sürekli ve uzun vadeli net artı değer elde etmesi olarak tanımlıyor, buradan hareketle şöyle bir sonuca ulaşıyorlardı (Görsel 1). Artı değerin emperyalist ülkelere aktığı dört kanal tespit ediyorlar: para senyorajı; sermaye yatırımlarından elde edilen gelir akışı; ticaret yoluyla eşitsiz değişim; döviz kurlarındaki değişimler. 1974'ten bu yana emperyalist (G7) bloğun kar oranı %20, egemen bloğun %32 düşmüş.
juan v. retweeted
Grabad esto en vuestra memoria porque todo va muy rápido: ahora que os han hecho absolutamente dependientes de la IA, lo siguiente es cerraros el acceso al hardware definitivamente y por los medios que sean, para que todo tenga que pasar por sus suscripciones y datacenters.
juan v. retweeted
Nuclear is not a joker. There are some things it can do. Others it cannot. This is a very hard problem.
Yield won’t do it. The weapon needs to penetrate the rock first and then detonate. A 300kt (10X Hiroshima) detonated 3m into the rock may or may not generate enough seismic force to destroy the facilities buried more than 100m underneath.
It really depends on the specific geology of that particular rock formation. Even with a full geological work up, you still couldn’t be sure of destroying it.
What you could be sure about is that the fallout and radiation would be massive, precisely because the weapon must detonate close to the surface.
In terms of disabling usage of the site, the MOP (GBU-57) may be just as effective, with none of the nuclear and geopolitical fallout; above all, the nuclear destruction that is certain to follow in Ukraine.
There is no case for nuking Pickaxe. This is just a bullshit plant to intimidate the Iranians.
… yeah, pretty much.
Pickaxe is buried under like 100m of granite, and given its sheer size, it’s entirely unclear if GBU-57s would accomplish much of anything.
It’s also not like Fordow with its obvious cooling vents, Pickaxe has maybe one obvious weak-point (3rd image), and that appears to have been plugged with concrete.
This would only be credible if they had completely lost their minds… If the taboo is broken, nukes could very well become a reality in Ukraine—to begin; in the medium term, it would mean the end of any non-proliferation policy: the last one to get their bomb is the fool.
The B61-11 is the only U.S. nuclear bomb built to burrow before it explodes.
Analysts say it fits targets like Pickaxe Mountain, which Tucker Carlson claims Trump may strike.
Using any nuclear weapon would break a taboo held since 1945.
clashreport.com/defense/arti…
juan v. retweeted
BREAKING: Belgium is now affected too by a major IT incident disrupting refrigeration systems across multiple supermarket chains.
More than 40 Delhaize stores, 15 Carrefour locations, and around five Spar outlets are reporting problems.
Refrigerators and freezers are reportedly heating up to 15°C, putting food supplies at risk.
BREAKING: 🇸🇪 Swedish grocery giant ICA, one of Sweden's largest supermarket chains, says several of its stores have been hit by a cyberattack overnight, causing refrigerators and freezers to be remotely set to 50°C.
The incident has likely resulted in large quantities of food spoiling. Multiple stores, including ICA Kvantum in Sjöbo and Tomelilla, have reported being affected.
ICA says stores will remain closed during the morning and are expected to reopen at 9:00 a.m. Swedish time.
The company has apologized to customers and says it is working to restore normal operations.
The incident comes amid a wave of cyberattacks targeting businesses recent weeks, following similar incidents reported in France and the United States.
Iran designates Royal Navy and RAF terrorist organisations, terms MI6 hostile group.
hindustantimes.com/s/deeplin…
juan v. retweeted
Remembering Perry Mehrling | Institute for New Economic Thinking ineteconomics.org/perspectiv… #inet
