Ad Astra

Joined March 2011
$ASTS Scotia Bank thinks that AST is a “top target” for M&A. If Abel were to sell, who do you think is the most likely buyer? For Microsoft, Apple, or Other - leave it in the comments!
26%Google
16%Meta
23%Amazon
35%Blue Origin
891 votes • Final results
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$ASTS I've held $ASTS since the de-SPAC and bought everywhere from $2 to over $100. Now I'm looking hard at the opportunity cost and asking whether my money is in the right place for what's next. I don't think I'm alone. Some of the drop is macro, a soft sector, and fading momentum. But relative to the rest of the sector, we do struggle with communication and dare I say, credibility. Timeline after timeline from earnings calls has slipped: satellites in orbit, commercial service, and the government contract details we were told were coming. Some of this has been out of our control - but communication is always available to management. Management, here's what long-term holders need on the next call: 1️⃣ Production: How many BlueBirds were completed in each of July, August, and September? On what date will Midland hit a sustained 6 per month? Investors need to gauge production process. If we cannot meet 6 per month, then all future financial projections should be called into question. 2️⃣ Launches: Give us the launch-by-launch schedule through mid-2027, with the target month, and the number of satellites on each one. Which are under signed contract, and which are still tentative? 3️⃣ Government: Name the government agreements that are actually signed, their dollar value, and how long they run. Which of the contracts that were touted are still pending, and by what date will they be disclosed? 4️⃣ Capital: In July you raised $1.15B in convertible notes. You said the money would "secure additional access to orbit" and fund "partnerships and/or acquisitions to further vertically integrate" and reduce reliance on third-party launch providers, and you also said there were no agreements yet. Three months later, what launch access has that money actually secured, and what vertical-integration deals have been signed? How much of the $1.15B has been spent, and on what? With over $3.7B in pro forma cash, what's the quarterly burn through 2027, and is another raise coming? In this market we don't need more optimism. We need numbers, dates, and commitments that get met. I believe that the mission of this company is going to change lives, create a ton of value, and is in the end quite noble. I understand space is hard and expensive and timelines can shift. In the last few years I have learned more about spectrum, wavelengths, and regulatory requirements than I ever thought I would. I believe the technology is superior to anything else available and that the first principles approach has been dead on from the beginning. That being said, we are competing in a field with the richest and most successful business men ever to have lived. The odds are certainly stacked against us, and timing here is everything. I think Space growth is going to be a defining shift in the trajectory of humanity akin to the railroad, international shipping, computing, and the internet. This is a huge opportunity that generations after us will wish they had a chance to invest in - but I have to ask whether I have backed the right horse at the right time. I believe I have, but I need more from our leadership at this pivotal moment. Hold tight, Spacemob. 🛰️
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AST SpaceMobile Advances Space-Based Cellular Broadband in Europe in Collaboration with European Mobile Network Operator Partners businesswire.com/news/home/2…
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Another convoy is on the move. BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 have left our Texas facility and are on the road to Cape Canaveral. Next stop: orbit. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 The largest commercial communications arrays ever deployed in low Earth orbit. A scalable platform to deliver space-based cellular broadband connectivity directly to standard phones, support secure government applications, and deliver a new third layer of connectivity. In Midland, Texas, production continues to advance through BlueBird 50, with more than 20 spacecraft structures now being integrated as part of our assembly process. One constellation. Connectivity. Resilience. Security. Built in Texas. 🇺🇸🌎📶📱 #ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds
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$ASTS Agreed. I think two things can be true that we often bind together in the Spacemob. It is true that the share price today trades seemingly independent of news, and is trading in step with the space basket. It’s quite possible, maybe even likely when looking at RKLB with its recent positive news, that any positive press for AST these past few weeks would go unrewarded in the share price. So it is fair to say, that even if the company were more vocal with updates, the share price may not be any different than it is now. It is also true that the progress of satellite production, shipping cadence, and launch capacity are absolutely material to the investment thesis and the success of the company. I believe most people are not looking at the company’s silence right now as being unsupportive of the share price, but are currently trying to take the company’s previous guidance and have it make sense. The current rate of production and shipping, seemingly - from an outsiders perspective - does not support a path to 45 sats in early 2027 and is looking increasingly like it will not support a path to 25 and beta service within 2026. This is what people are looking for communication on - not necessarily PR announcing new business or contracts, but - are we going to accomplish what you said you would? It’s possible that slipping a few months on these targets yields the same long term result, and seasoned investors will tell others that the timing doesn’t matter. That’s quite possibly true, and it’s a mental and emotional muscle that needs to be built within every investor, that is fair feedback. It’s also fair to ask for the company to explain and show a path to achieving the financial results it is claiming are right around the corner, and we shouldn’t dismiss reasonable concerns and questions being raised by shareholders just because they are happening as the price is depressed. It’s my read that Spacemob is less concerned with the price and more concerned with the business. Are we on track? Do you have a real path to the production numbers you are claiming, are the rockets lined up to support it? Delays lead to increased competition and increased cash burn - these can reasonably shift investment thesis’s and are valid topics for discussion. Spacemob should continue to foster the collaborative research model that has carried us thus far, and continue to push for clarity and transparency where possible with the company we all own and love. Good post, Scott.
$ASTS In the 25+ years I worked as a corporate executive in billion dollar companies, I had the opportunity to both participate in and lead complex global initiatives and projects that included cross departmental teams and technologies. One thing that I never heard from a single leader, nor did I ever speak as a leader was, "Listen guys, we know we communicated our goals and timelines to the team and they've slipped, but please stop asking questions. Please stop asking for clarification and probing the different things that could have gone wrong. Do not try and hold staff accountable and explain their positions or ask what they are going to do to get back to the original timelines. Just have faith that the teams involved will figure it out on their own, be quiet and be supportive. Granted, we are not internal employees and will never have similar access, but we are, in fact, owners of the company. We have the right and, I would argue, the obligation to hold the management team accountable to the goals they publicly set, the performance to achieve those goals and communication from the company when those goals materially slip. The fact that some are receiving shaming push back for doing that is alarming to me. This group has always been a welcoming oasis of information and camaraderie that I've never seen anywhere in my trading career. I hope we don't ruin that for the shareholder base that thirsts for access to this kind of community and that we do not live up to the bear narrative that we are just a bunch of misguided company cheerleaders who ignore and seek to silence negative information and instead simply push the company position. I hope we can continue to be the welcoming, due diligence dense, hyper focused, intel seeking investor group that we have been in the past. To be clear, I still believe in the company and its mission. I sincerely appreciate the information and intel and the time members have taken to share it here. I also still hold just under 150K shares, but the very minute I lose faith in the leadership of this company, I am gone. The clock is ticking. Let's not f this up. NFA and FWIW.
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🚨 AST SpaceMobile / Midland update: Antonov An-124 ADB7120 flew Cancún (CUN) → Midland (MAF) this morning after previously operating through Germany and Colombia. I’m now at AST’s Midland facility, and I can confirm the flight is for AST SpaceMobile. Several semi-trailers are already waiting at the facility to be loaded. Given AST’s ongoing BlueBird production ramp and expansion of its environmental testing/manufacturing capabilities, this could be another major equipment or spacecraft-related logistics move. What’s inside the An-124? 👀🛰️ #ASTS #ASTSpaceMobile #BlueBird #SpaceMobile #An124 $ASTS
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JAPAN PLANS AI-POWERED SATELLITES TO SPEED COUNTERSTRIKE DECISIONS - NIKKEI
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$ASTS back at $60
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$ASTS Two things stood out to me here: “Direct to device and radar” And “AI Edge Computing.” Both obviously discussed by Spacemob, but now materializing before us.
BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 are now fully deployed to their full size, each the world's largest communications arrays operating in Low Earth Orbit. We invented a new way to design, manufacture at scale, deploy, and fly lightweight composite stackable architecture combined, with the world's largest and most advanced direct- to-device and radar phased-array with the ability to launch them in groups of 3, 5, 6, or 8 on a single launch. Our BlueBird platform brings together high-performance space-based cellular broadband with peak data rates approaching 200 Mbps, space AI edge computing, and many mission-critical government applications, all on one platform where the largest-ever size matters! BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 are already at the Cape preparing for their imminent launch. BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16 are right behind them. Production has already moved through satellite 42. All of this is happening in Texas. 🤠🇺🇸📶🌎📱
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$ASTS looking at the Nasdaq and the Space sector generally, this is probably where we would have opened today, raise or not. lol.
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Google + $ASTS = ULA
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AI companies are trying to race to space for future AI datacenters. Like AST, others are going to be launch constrained… Google, Microsoft, Meta, etc. Would make sense for AST to partner with one of them to buy a launch provider. It gives them both priority access.
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$ASTS The language in the offering certainly does sound like they are looking to invest/acquire, but they followed it up with confirming there were no "understandings or agreements." This is standard SEC boilerplate language. This would not preclude: - Ongoing discussions, NDA's, or non-binding LOIs - Due diligence in progress - Board-approved exploration that hasn't turned into a binding deal Even saying "partnerships and/or acquisitions" leaves them with some optionality while shopping, and keeps the powder dry during negotiations. Given the fact that they are raising at these levels, it does at least seem like talks are at an "advanced" stage.
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$ASTS BlueBird convoy spotted at 8:29 AM CDT, about 17 miles east of Big Spring, TX. 📷 32.3252, -101.2019.
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$ASTS Is going to do more that fix dead zones for phones - it's going to provide connectivity to standard cellular modems, unlocking massive IoT opportunities. Legacy satellite IOT is tiny and expensive (roughly $2B market, high ARPU but low volume). AST will change all this: cheap devices and everywhere connectivity will equate to exploding TAMs in remote and mobile assets. What else can we disrupt, other than connectivity to ensure your pet is never lost? Here are 10 big IoT use cases, their current vs. 2030 TAMs, disruption potential, and the AST opportunity.
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10. Predictive Maintenance and Remote Industrial IOT Sensors on remote industrial assets or in disaster-prone areas enable proactive maintenance and early warning for resilience and uptime. Today TAM: Remote slice of industrial IIoT. Vendors: Industrial platforms (Siemens etc.) + sat backhaul providers Typical costs: Hardware $150–$700; monthly $10–$50 2030 with AST: ~$8B+ AST’s fix: Always-on standard cellular connectivity brings real-time data from the most remote facilities without dedicated sat infrastructure or gaps. AST opportunity 15% of always-connected remote assets. ~$1.25B.
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The Big Picture -- Totals Current TAM: ~$56B (heavily constrained) 2030 Expanded TAM: ~$122B AST Likely Share: ~$16.6B Incumbent reality today: High hardware/service costs and coverage limits cap volume. AST’s fix (standard modems + universal coverage) changes the economics entirely. 2030 will likely be early in the new IoT revolution, so the likelihood for these number to grow is real. We can debate the percentage of AST share, but these assumptions aren't meant to be incredibly high - perhaps conservative. Lastly, consider this market as independent of commercial services to supplement your typical cell coverage, as well as additive to any governmental and defense applications. The TAM is enormous, by 2030 this list will likely look dramatically different!
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