Pinned Tweet
صلوا عليه وسلموا تسليما
حتى تنالوا جنة و نعيمة
الله يجزي من يصل مرة
عشرا و يسكن في الجنان مقيما
Jumua mubaraka
salawathub.com/
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Kareem retweeted
This may be one of the most delicious vindications of the argument for building strong third parties, and it should effectively bury “vote blue no matter who” once and for all.
For far too long, the Democratic establishment has gotten away with running candidates whose politics are barely distinguishable from those of Republicans, while demonizing anyone who refuses to fall in line as someone helping elect Republicans.
Had Haley Stevens won the Democratic nomination, the very same people condemning her today would’ve insisted that everyone vote for her, regardless of her politics, to “defeat Mike Rogers.” The irony is almost too perfect.
The people who’ve spent the past decade vilifying third-party voters and lecturing everyone else about party loyalty owe those they’ve demonized an admission that they were right all along to reject the notion that the Democratic Party is entitled to their votes.
This can happen with mild things like saying taqaball Allah, bigger things that may have difference of opinion on but lack wisdom in enforcing like reading Quran for dead, and catastrophic things like this (although this one comes from shia not wahhabis)
When British people say "sat" instead of "sitting" do they consider it part of their slang or is that considered proper British English
Had the opportunity to visit the elementary school I attended yrs ago that my niece now attends
It was both nice and somewhat terrifying seeing some of the same teachers suddenly 20-23 yrs aged forward
الدنيا فانية و الله هو الباقي
