I really like this number for Lauri because we’re basically being asked for 16 shots from a guy who averaged 19.2 FGA in 34.4 minutes LY He only finished with 13 FGA against Memphis, but I don’t think that tells the full story at all. Lauri got to the line 10 times, aka several of his scoring possessions ended in shooting fouls He still had 18 points despite shooting 4/13, so the involvement was there… the box score just converted a lot of that volume into FTA instead of FGA But anyways, his matchup today is what really pushes me toward the over New Orleans completely changed its defensive philosophy with Jamahl Mosley taking over They’re building the defense around a “no middle, no paint” structure, loading defenders into gaps and keeping their rim protection home. They’re primarily looking to switch 1-3, potentially 1-4, rather than automatically switching everything That’s extremely interesting for Lauri because so much of his offense is generated without the basketball Will Hardy described him this week as an elite off ball mover and shooter, basically a 7 footer who functions like a wing and that’s exactly why Utah can play these jumbo lineups with Lauri/JJJ… without completely killing the spacing NOP has also specifically talked about NOT wanting to lazily switch off ball actions That matters against Lauri because Utah is constantly trying to free him through pin downs, screens, slips, cuts and quick relocations If NOP wants defenders fighting through those actions rather than simply exchanging assignments, I think Utah will make Trey Murphy/Zion/Herb Jones work through traffic all night trying to stay connected to him Lauri took roughly 40% of his shots from three LY, with ~50% coming at the rim or elsewhere in the paint. Against a defense actively trying to close the middle and keep Missi near the basket, I expect Utah to counter by getting Lauri into more pops, trail threes, pick and pop actions, curls and quick catches above the break rather than repeatedly asking him to finish through a loaded paint

HC Bickerstaff specifically talked this preseason about getting Cade off the ball so defenses can’t load all 10 eyes onto him, and we’ve already seen Thompson get more opportunities initiating the offense Cade himself said those off ball reps are helping Detroit play with better tempo & generate easier shots And we saw how dangerous that can be during the playoffs. Cade shot 48.8% on 41 C&S threes, while DET’s off ball actions involving him were extremely efficient That’s a big reason HC Bickerstaff has talked about using him coming into actions rather than constantly having him bring the ball up and fight through pressure The Miami matchup makes the attempt volume even more interesting The Heat allowed 39.0 opponent 3PA per game LY (sixth most in the NBA). and opposing guards specifically got up 20.5 threes per game against them (second most in the league) AND, that carried directly into opening night: Minnesota attempted 50 threes against Miami, with Ant + Melo combining for 30 attempts by themselves... Ant took 17 and LaMelo took 13 What really caught my attention was Spoelstra’s postgame comments He specifically brought up all the PU threes MIA allowed & said when guards are operating from 26-28 feet, his defense has to “crawl up” further than it’s comfortable with or that space turns into an uncontested stepback AND that’s extremely relevant to Cade MIA should start Davion Mitchell on him, but behind Davion you have Bam/Greek protecting the interior. Like I mentioned on his points prop, that size around the paint makes me less interested in assuming Cade just lives at the rim all night Instead, I think there’s a realistic path where Miami’s paint presence pushes more of his volume outward… aka pull ups when the big sits back, 3s when Davion gets caught on a screen, and C&S looks when Cade gives the ball up & relocates

Tyson is someone I expect to elevate his game this season, and Cleveland needs him to be an important part of this second unit Dean Wade, Schroder, Strus & Ellis are all gone, creating an opportunity for him to take on more responsibility & also handle a heavier workload Notably, in games with both Strus + Wade out LY, he averaged 9.60 FGA & cleared 6.5 FGA in 13/15 games. Both misses came when he played fewer than 22 minutes. Excluding those two games, his average climbed to 10.23 FGA per game After digging into his preseason role, what stood out was that Tyson remained involved when the Cavs had its main group available. He took eight shots in 21 minutes and nine in 25 minutes in his two appearances off the bench Kenny Atkinson’s camp comments also caught my attention, calling Tyson “one of the BETTER players in camp so far” & saying “He’s shooting the heck out of it” I like the different ways he can build that volume alongside Harden and Mitchell. When either gets downhill and draws Tyson’s defender toward the paint > he can take the kickout 3, or attack the closeout. Cuts and putbacks give him additional opportunities without needing possessions called specifically for him He should also get opportunities to attack PHI’s thin second unit, with less resistance at the rim when Embiid sits Now, Allen says he expects to play, and my read already assumes Tyson is coming off the bench But if he doesn’t play, that would strengthen the minutes outlook, I am projecting roughly around 23-26 mins & around 9 FGA under the expected rotation

Read on Jerome was CRAZY sharp 🔪

Darius Garland has a LOT on his plate tonight With Kawhi Leonard gone and Ingram/Beal/Strus sidelined, there’s a clear opening for him to take control of this offense. His ability to create pull up shots and get into the lane should make him one of LAC’s first options when a possession breaks down Notably, in his two games LY without Kawhi: 21 FGA (32 min), 17 FGA (26 min) | 19.00 AVG FGA The baseline is encouraging once you account for minutes. Garland averaged 15.5 FGA in 29.1 min with LAC LY, carrying a 29.5% usage rate That pace translates to roughly 17-18 attempts over 30+ min, before adjusting for this season’s roster Sacramento finished 28th in defensive rating LY, but… the MORE relevant number for this prop is 88.95 opponent FGA per game (AKA 16th most) Their defense allowed efficient scoring without necessarily producing unusually high shot totals for opponents