Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 (@ldnik) header
Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 (@ldnik) profile picture

Liberal. European. Other minority descriptions may apply. Occasional tweets on politics, current affairs & Eurovision. Views own; RT=interesting/funny. he/him.

Cornwall
Joined May 2010
Photo by Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 (@ldnik)Photo by Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 (@ldnik)Photo by Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 (@ldnik)Photo by Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 (@ldnik)Photo by Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 (@ldnik)Photo by Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 (@ldnik)Photo by Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 (@ldnik)
Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 retweeted
Chris, there are rare occasions when an author dismantles his own argument before the reader has progressed beyond the opening paragraphs. This is one of them. You readily concede that much of your reporting over recent months rested upon anonymous briefings, unnamed sources, private conversations and opinions offered only on condition that they could never be subjected to public scrutiny. You then ask your audience to accept that such material provides an accurate account of events. With respect, that is not evidence in any meaningful sense. It is an interpretation of events, constructed from assertions that the reader has no means of testing, verifying or challenging. No serious observer disputes that confidential sources have a legitimate place in political journalism. They always have, and they always will. But there is a profound distinction between using anonymous sources to illuminate established facts and using them to construct an entire political narrative over many months. The former is responsible journalism; the latter risks becoming an exercise in reinforcing assumptions until they acquire the appearance of fact simply through constant repetition. Indeed, your own article inadvertently exposes that very process. It repeatedly invites readers to accept what unnamed MPs supposedly believed, what unidentified advisers were allegedly saying, and what anonymous insiders privately thought. Such accounts may well have reflected genuine conversations, but they remain assertions rather than verifiable facts. There is an important distinction, and one that ought never to be blurred. More striking still is the omission at the heart of your analysis. You devote thousands of words to explaining how Westminster concluded that Sir Keir Starmer's premiership had become untenable, yet you devote scarcely a sentence to examining whether the relentless stream of anonymous briefings and speculative commentary from sections of the political media played any part in creating that very outcome. That question surely deserves examination. Nor do you grapple with the constitutional consequence of what follows. The British people elected a Government led by Sir Keir Starmer. Should he be replaced by another individual through internal parliamentary manoeuvring alone, the process may be constitutionally lawful, but that does not automatically confer political legitimacy in the eyes of the electorate. Those are two entirely different questions. Many of those now defending such a transition were previously among the most vocal critics of Rishi Sunak for assuming office without seeking his own mandate from the country. Constitutional principles cannot be invoked when politically convenient and quietly abandoned when they become inconvenient. History has a habit of punishing such inconsistency. If Andy Burnham were to become Prime Minister in these circumstances, I believe the pressure upon him to seek his own mandate from the British people would become irresistible. In my view, he would have little practical choice but to call a General Election within six to eight months. Whether Labour would survive such a contest is, of course, for the electorate to determine. My own judgement is that they would face a severe electoral reckoning, with the country returning either a Reform UK-led government or a hung Parliament. Journalism should chronicle events, not become so intertwined with Westminster's internal conversations that it begins to mistake the mood of the political class for the settled will of the British people. That, in my view, is the fundamental weakness running through your analysis. bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg8…
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Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 retweeted
JUST IN: The White House just blamed an intern for the worst information warfare defeat of the 21st century. Here is the sequence. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that a US Navy-escorted oil tanker had successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz. The claim was false. No escort had occurred. The White House confirmed this. Wright deleted the post. The administration blamed a “low-level staffer” for the inaccurate publication. Before the deletion, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf screenshotted it and posted fifteen words that have now been seen by over one million people: “An oil tanker crossed Strait of Hormuz escorted by US Navy ships? Maybe on PlayStation!” Twenty-one thousand likes. 4,700 retweets. One million views. The most engaged Iranian government post of the war. And it was accurate. The escort did not happen. The American post that claimed it did was retracted. The Iranian post that mocked it stands. A low-level staffer published a claim about the most strategically sensitive waterway on Earth from a cabinet secretary’s official account during the most intense military campaign since 2003, and nobody in the chain of command reviewed it before publication. That is not a staffing error. That is an institutional failure in a government prosecuting a war where information moves faster than corrections. The oil market moved on the claim before it was deleted. WTI crashed from $119.50 to $87 on a cascade of de-escalation signals that included escort announcements. The escort that was announced did not happen. The price that moved on it did. The correction that followed has not reversed the price. The market is now trading at a level partially determined by a social media post that no longer exists, authored by a person the White House will not name, published from an account belonging to a secretary who apparently did not approve it. Meanwhile, the physical Strait remains unchanged. Seven hundred tankers queued. Visible transits: 2 to 3 per day. Seven P&I clubs withdrawn. Zero reinstated. A few dozen Iranian mines confirmed in the water by US intelligence, with 80 to 90% of mine-laying vessels still intact. The 31 autonomous IRGC commands continue firing. The Supreme Leader is a cardboard cutout at his own rally. The IEA just proposed the largest emergency reserve release in history because the Strait the staffer claimed was open is not open. Iran did not hack an American account. Iran did not plant disinformation. Iran waited for America to publish its own false claim, watched America delete it, and then broadcast the deletion to the world. The information warfare victory cost Iran nothing. A screenshot and fifteen words. The United States has three carrier strike groups, eleven heavy bombers, and the most powerful military in human history deployed to reopen a strait that a low-level staffer accidentally admitted is still closed. The staffer’s crime was not posting inaccurate information. It was posting the aspiration before the achievement. The escort was supposed to happen. It has not. And now the world knows it has not because Washington told them first and Tehran made sure they remembered. PlayStation. One deleted post. One unnamed staffer. And the Strait is still closed. open.substack.com/pub/shanak…
JUST IN: Iran’s Parliament Speaker just won the information war with fifteen words and a gaming console reference. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, 11 March, 6:54 AM: “An oil tanker crossed Strait of Hormuz escorted by US Navy ships? Maybe on PlayStation!” One million views. Twenty-one thousand likes. 4,700 retweets. The most engaged Iranian government post of the entire war. And it landed because it was true. Here is what happened. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright published a post claiming a tanker had successfully transited the Strait under Navy escort. The White House subsequently clarified: no escort had occurred. Wright deleted the post. But Ghalibaf had already seen it. He screenshotted the claim, watched it vanish, and broadcast its humiliation to a million people before the American correction reached the press. The US Energy Secretary fabricated a transit. Iran’s Parliament Speaker fact-checked it. The information war is being won by the side that does not need to delete its posts. This matters beyond mockery because the oil market priced the claim Wright deleted. WTI crashed to $87. Brent to $91. Traders sold on “war is over” rhetoric that included escort announcements. The escort that was announced did not happen. The price that responded to it did. The market moved on a post that no longer exists, and the correction that followed has not moved the market back. Meanwhile, the physical Strait remains unchanged. Seven hundred tankers queued. Visible transits: 2 to 3 per day from a pre-war 138. Seven P&I clubs withdrawn. Zero reinstated. The $20 billion DFC backstop: zero confirmed large-scale VLCC movements. Trump destroyed 10 “inactive” mine-laying boats on 10 March while CBS reports Iran’s 2,000 to 6,000 mine stockpile is being prepared for deployment via small craft. Ghalibaf rejected ceasefire the same day. Larijani threatened Trump’s elimination the same day. The Supreme Leader remained a cardboard cutout at his own rally. Ghalibaf’s mockery works because the mathematics are on his side. Restoring 20% of global oil flow requires 138 daily transits through a corridor 33 kilometres wide under simultaneous threat from ballistic missiles, drones, fast-attack boats, cruise missiles, and mines from 31 autonomous commands that need no permission to engage. The US Navy can escort one tanker. It cannot escort 138 per day while simultaneously hunting mines, intercepting drones, tracking submarines, and defending carrier strike groups. Operation Earnest Will in the 1980s required months of preparation against a centralised Iranian command. Today’s Iran has 31 commands with coastal access and non-expiring constitutional authority from a dead Supreme Leader. One escort is a photograph. Reopening the Strait is an industrial operation. Ghalibaf understands the difference. The Energy Secretary who deleted his post did not. The market priced the deleted post at $87. Ghalibaf priced the physical Strait at one million views. Seven hundred tankers remain stationary. The insurance remains cancelled. The mines remain in preparation. And the man who rejected ceasefire, who vowed to “strike the aggressor in the mouth,” who represents a parliament that will not negotiate, just told the world that American naval escorts exist only on PlayStation. He has not been proven wrong. open.substack.com/pub/shanak…
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Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 retweeted
BREAKING: Senator Richard Blumenthal emerges ashen-faced from an Iran War briefing and reveals that he has never been so "angry" in his entire 15 career year in Senate. And the details are jaw-dropping... "I emerge from this briefing as dissatisfied and angry, frankly, as I have from any past briefing in my 15 years in the Senate," he told reporters. "I am left with more questions than answers, especially about the cost of the war. However, my questions have been unanswered, and I will demand answers because the American people deserve to know." According to The Washington Post, the United States burned through a staggering $5.6 billion in munitions in just the first two days of the illegal war. This is the same administration that insists that we don't have money for healthcare or social services. "And I guess I am most concerned about the threat to American lives of potentially deploying our sons and daughters on the ground in Iran," Blumenthal continued. "We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran to accomplish any of the potential objectives here. And there is also, as disturbingly as anything else, the specter of active Russian aid to Iran, putting in danger American lives." "Literally, Russia seems to be aiding our enemy actively and intensively with intelligence and perhaps with other means. And China also may be assisting Iran," he continued. "So the American people deserve to know much more than this administration has told them about the cost of the war, the danger to our sons and daughters in uniform, and the potential for further escalation and widening of this war, a war of choice made by this president, not chosen by the American people, with potentially huge consequences to American lives," the senator added. That "war of choice" bit is particularly crucial. Trump launched this deadly, evil war on behalf of Israel despite Iran posing no immediate threat to the people of the United States. He's slaughtering men, women, and children and can't even articulate a coherent strategic goal. Meanwhile, he never bothered to get Congressional approval for the war as demanded by the Constitution and he's rapidly burning through our tax dollars. The mere suggestion that we would put boots on the ground in Iran should horrify every American. In addition to being a morally reprehensible action, it would result in the greatest military disaster in U.S. history. Iran has a population of 93 million people, it's four times larger than Iraq and it's all mountains. Our brave soldiers would be walking into a slaughterhouse. Please ❤️ and share to demand an end to the war!
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Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 retweeted
Falmouth Penwerris (Cornwall) Council By-Election Result: 🌹 LAB: 44.7% (-19.8) 🔶 LDM: 30.2% (+25.5) 🌍 GRN: 25.1% (+16.6) No CON (-19.7), IND (-1.8), TUSC (-0.9). Labour HOLD. Changes w/ 2021.
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Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 retweeted
Liberal Democrat MPs will fight in Westminster to restore local health and care services after years of neglect.
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Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 retweeted
Always we have lies about immigration, here are some facts.
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Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 retweeted
In the wake of 4 more lives being taken by our borders we’ll hear ‘Smash The Gangs’ instead of ‘Stop The Boats’. But we’ll not hear ‘Open Safe Routes’ & that’s the only thing that will stop more lives being lost.
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Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 retweeted
One of the less noticed achievements of the Lib Dem campaign is that the party retained every single one of the seats it originally won through by-elections. That is an absolutely remarkable feat.
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Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 retweeted
OMG 😱 Farage’s party came second in 120 constituencies They got 12.6% of the votes - 3rd highest vote share They got 2 MPs While the winning party only got 36.9% Oh no, wait a sec - that was UKIP in 2015! #GeneralElection2024 1/5
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Not another one! 😱🤯😅
There's 1,866 days until the latest date of the next United Kingdom General Election (15th August 2029).
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Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 retweeted
Eastleigh LDem: 39.7% (+5.2) Con: 35.8% (-16.0) Lab: 17.4% (+5.7) Grn: 6.0% (+3.9) LDem GAIN from Con newstatesman.com/politics/20…
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Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 retweeted
What a 🗳️ for the 🔸Liberal Democrats 🔸means in this election…
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This was one of our most shared images of the last 4 years so we've updated it for this Thursday's election. In *most* seats across the country, Labour is the vote to stop the Tories winning, however in these seats a Labour vote won't actually help... #GE2024 #TacticalVoting
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Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 retweeted
Vote Liberal Democrat on July 4 to give you, your family, and your community the Fair Deal you deserve. 🔶
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The fact this isn't more of a story shows how hard it is for a Tory scandal to get traction among... all the other Tory scandals 🙄 #ToriesOut
The Conservatives Claim a Website Design Firm They Handed £100,000 in Taxpayer Cash is ‘Independent’ but it’s Listed at an Address Owned by a CCHQ Staffer bylinetimes.com/2024/06/24/c…
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Ah, of course, Sunak leaving D Day early was all part of a plan to make sure Penny Mordaunt isn't the next Tory leader... Now it makes sense! 😅
Worth noting that v unusually the main "military" seats - like Brackell, Aldershot and Portsmouth North are effective marginals in this election.
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Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 retweeted
Nobody born since October 1939 has undertaken National Service in the UK. Those people are now aged at least 85. This policy is aimed at winning the votes of people who never did National Service themselves but who want to force others to do it.
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Nik Alatortsev 🔶🇪🇺 retweeted
A soggy Rishi Sunak announcing a general election while "Things Can Only Get Better" blares out feels quite on the nose..
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