"There is no hope for society without sound money”, Nostr Verification: npub1gv43w6hwl954xhur44vd6xdrw84y6nufe52assqlk346rhfggh3shuwk73
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LedgerMan retweeted
Why you should vote Republican.
My biggest concern is that if there is a clean sweep by Democrats of the House, Senate and Presidency in 2028, they will:
1. Make DC and Puerto Rico states to gain a strong majority in the Senate.
2. Open the borders and legalize everyone living in America illegally to cement a permanent majority.
3. Increase the size of the Supreme Court to gain an immediate majority.
This would result in America becoming a permanent one-party state and the end of democracy in any meaningful sense of the word.
All that is needed to ensure this doesn’t happen is 51 Republican senators in 2029. That is why you should vote for Republican senators this election. Other reasons are irrelevant compared to this one.
LedgerMan retweeted
There it is.
Over 60% of the S&P 500's components are now in bear market territory, down -20% or more from their record highs.
Four of the Magnificent 7 stocks are now in bear market territory, with these seven names erasing a combined -$4 trillion in market cap since their highs.
We are in a "stealth" bear market.
And, we believe it's a huge opportunity as we outlined below on October 15th.
LedgerMan retweeted
The numbers for $MSTR are incredible.
If you're a long-term shareholder, please read this post in full. It's important.
There is a fundamental misunderstanding that more Bitcoin on the balance sheet should always mean a higher share price at the same Bitcoin price, and that otherwise accretive dilution has been pointless.
That is the wrong way to look at it.
The share price is largely driven by mNAV, which the company can't directly control. It's set by market sentiment, and so is the price of Bitcoin, the underlying asset.
$MSTR at its ATH vs Yesterday:
-Nov 21, 2024: $543 intraday high at 4.3x net mNAV & BTC at ~$98,000.
-Oct 28, 2026: $145 at 1.15x net mNAV & BTC at ~$81k.
-Bitcoin held went from 331k to 848k during this time.
This is the crucial bit. Net Bitcoin per share at a $98k BTC went from $127 to $160 (+26%).
Because of the accretion, $MSTR now needs only a 3.4x mNAV to hit $543 at the same Bitcoin price, not 4.3x.
At the same 4.3x premium and a $98k Bitcoin, $MSTR would be ~$686 today.
Even at today's $81k Bitcoin, the ATH premium would put $MSTR right back at ~$543.
The point is this...
The share price fell because the premium collapsed and Bitcoin fell. The Bitcoin behind each share has grown.
So where does the premium come from? Bitcoin momentum.
The 2024 premium was built while Bitcoin was breaking to new highs and sentiment was through the roof. Today Bitcoin is coming out of a bear market and down to $81k from $126k. Momentum has stalled, and with that, $MSTR's premium.
In my view, the big premiums return when Bitcoin breaks its ATH and runs towards $200k-$250k and euphoria comes back. That is when mNAV expansion will be greatest.
What that would mean for $MSTR:
-BTC at $126k: 2.5x net mNAV --> ~$540, back at ATH.
For the record, I'm not expecting mNAV to be at 2.5x with Bitcoin at $126k. We need Bitcoin to run much higher.
-BTC at $200k: 2.5x net mNAV --> ~$896.
-BTC at $250k: 2.5x net mNAV --> ~$1,131.
The greater the euphoria for Bitcoin, the greater the mNAV expansion for $MSTR.
With no premium expansion at all, at today's 1.15x, $MSTR passes $543 once Bitcoin reaches ~$261k.
The lower mNAV needed to pass $543 is the direct result of Bitcoin per share growth, achieved in difficult conditions.
The Strategy team have done a phenomenal job growing net Bitcoin per share through a difficult bear market, all while pioneering a new industry - digital credit.
LedgerMan retweeted
Thanks for having me back on @MacroVoices, @ErikSTownsend - I enjoyed our conversation as always!
MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend & @PatrickCeresna welcome Luke Gromen @LukeGromen. They discuss why the economic fallout from the prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption has been slower than expected, with China’s reduced oil demand and coordinated strategic reserve releases helping cushion the supply shock, and why the bigger credit risk from AI may sit with the consumer. bit.ly/4sufi1M
LedgerMan retweeted
BREAKING: 🇦🇪 DUBAI ROYAL FAMILY BACKED STANDARD ASSET COMPANY JUST ANNOUNCED A $1,500,000,000 #BITCOIN AND REAL ESTATE TREASURY STRATEGY
EVEN ROYALTY IS NOW FOLLOWING SAYLOR
THIS IS HUGE 🔥
LedgerMan retweeted
What if the Bitcoin Treasury race hasn't even started yet?
We're witnessing an explosion of financial innovation, with Strategy $MSTR, Strive $ASST, and others building increasingly sophisticated capital-raising engines.
And the most remarkable part? Bitcoin has barely moved.
Now imagine what happens when Bitcoin starts ripping again.
That's exactly what we explored in the latest episode of Inside the Walls, alongside @AlexandreLaizet (@_ALCPB), @Andre_Dragosch (@Bitwise), and @YChoueifaty (TOBAM).
Some fascinating discussions:
🔸 $STRC approaching $100 par: Is Strategy's Bitcoin buying engine about to restart?
🔸 Common equity vs. Digital Credit: Why might institutional investors actually WANT more share issuance?
🔸 The amplification race: What happens to Strategy, Strive, and smaller Bitcoin Treasury Companies when BTC surges 20%?
🔸 Strategy's B- credit rating: Are traditional credit rating agencies fundamentally mispricing Bitcoin-backed credit?
🔸 Anthropic's IPO: What does the repricing of AI investments tell us about the broader capital markets?
One quote from @YChoueifaty perfectly captures where we are:
"We are building a scenario for a very, very exciting movie, but the movie has not started yet."
The financial infrastructure is being built. The capital markets are evolving. But the real show might still be ahead of us.
00:00 Bitcoin Capital Markets: Inside the Walls Ep. 7
02:14 Strategy STRC Nears $100 Par: Is Digital Credit Back?
04:59 Why Is Strategy Buying Back STRC Below Par?
07:09 What Happens to Bitcoin Treasury Stocks When BTC Rallies?
12:56 Common Stock ATM vs Digital Credit: What Do Institutions Prefer?
19:14 How Will Bitcoin Treasury Companies Raise Capital in a Bull Market?
22:38 Strategy vs Strive vs Capital B: Do Smaller Players Have an Edge?
25:55 Why Did Strategy Keep Its B- Credit Rating?
29:53 Are Credit Rating Agencies Holding Back Bitcoin Adoption?
36:32 Why Traditional Credit Ratings Fail: Oil, Lehman & Sovereign Debt
43:19 Anthropic IPO: Timing, Valuation and AI Market Risks
If you want to understand how the next Bitcoin bull market could reshape the entire Bitcoin Treasury industry, this is an episode you don't want to miss! 👇🔥
LedgerMan retweeted
🏦 FIDELITY SAYS "INVESTORS MAY BE INCREASINGLY VIEWING #BITCOIN AS AN ATTRACTIVE SAFE HAVEN ASSET" 🛡️
BTC HAS OUTPERFORMED GOLD BY 58% SINCE FEB 28 🚀
LedgerMan retweeted
Fidelity Global Macro Director: “I continue to be impressed by Bitcoin’s resilience,” it should keep outperforming gold.
Governments may resort to desperate measures, so hold “real assets.”
— Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity
LedgerMan retweeted
*** RE: Strategy's B- rating
This is still one of the biggest mispricings in traditional finance I have seen in my entire career.
Based on common corporate health metrics, Strategy should be closer to a AA or even AAA rating and, hence, $STRC should probably yield closer to 6%, rather than 12%.
Note that US AA and AAA corporate bonds have a similar duration like STRC as well.
Expect capital to continue to flow into STRC, other digital credit instruments, and ultimately into #Bitcoin...
LedgerMan retweeted
JUST IN: Fidelity Digital Assets says Bitcoin has outperformed gold by 58% since February 28 👀
Their report adds that Bitcoin "may have already hit a cyclical bottom, with possibly more room to run." 🚀
LedgerMan retweeted
Do you think the cycle has already turned?
Momentum improved. Profitability recovered. Market breadth expanded.
🔗 Our Q4 2026 Signals Report explores what these shifts may signal for the path ahead: go.fidelity.com/M0kAjj
LedgerMan retweeted
NEW: Here's an updated look at Bitcoin's price compared to the average cost basis for US ETF Holders. We estimate the cost bases to be just under $82,000. Bitcoin has been dancing around that level since the end of August.
LedgerMan retweeted
Steve Eisman - Who called the 2008 crash - says the entire market is now "one trade," and it "better succeed"
"Even people who think they're diversified because they own bonds are NOT really that diversified"
The Big Short investor sold Google to cut his AI exposure and is sitting in cash.
What's worrying him:
> He Sold Google, Now In Cash (0:06):
- A stock he's "owned... I can't even tell you how long" - sold to reduce AI exposure. He won't replace it with defensive names: people "don't want to shift out of it to buy Clorox."
> If AI Fails, "A Big Correction" (0:52):
- It's binary: AI succeeds and the market keeps climbing, or "I think we have a big correction." How big? "That's a hard question. I don't know."
> "It's All One Trade" (1:07):
- In a 60/40 portfolio, "more than 50 percent" of the stocks is "tech and AI related," and "most of the new issuance of bonds is AI related." Then: "What scares me is that it's all one trade. So it better succeed."
> "Incestuous" Circular Deals (4:03):
- The latest Nvidia deal is "so incestuous" and "totally convoluted" - "you don't know if there's any real profitability" in the machinations.
He's not even an AI skeptic - it's going to be "something really good" (3:53)
BUT "that doesn't mean that everybody succeeds"
He actually moved to cash. Most crash calls come with no position behind them
I traced every big AI CRASH CALL to its source and scored who was right ↓
LedgerMan retweeted
JUST IN: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent says they could work with the SEC and CFTC to advance crypto regulations and "fill the gap left by the Clarity Act’s failure."
LedgerMan retweeted
Michael Saylor’s Strategy daily trading volume has surpassed the entire TradFi industry.
...they want $MSTR banned from MSCI.
LedgerMan retweeted
we're still early in 13F filings for BTC ETFs... most large asset managers and RIAs don't file until right up before the due date (nov 16)
but we're already seeing some of the longer term money adding in Q3. SIGFIG WEALTH MGMT (advisor) is a new brand new filer whose clients added $73m in Q3. a lot of their AUM is pass-through from retail accounts at banks like wells fargo, citizens, santander and UBS
LedgerMan retweeted
JUST IN: Italy's largest insurance company Generali Group just disclosed it bought 100,985 more shares ($14.1 million) of #Bitcoin treasury company Strategy $MSTR.
It now holds a total of 237,930 shares ($33.3 million).
Insurance companies are adding BTC exposure through treasury companies. 👀🔥
LedgerMan retweeted
We believe the bottom is in, selling pressure has diminished, the debasement case has strengthened, and the crowd has left
LedgerMan retweeted
BREAKING: 🇨🇭 $426 BILLION SWISS PRIVATE BANK J. SAFRA SARASIN JUST ANNOUNCED THEY OWN OVER $17,500,000 WORTH OF #BITCOIN
ONE OF THE MOST PRESTIGIOUS BANKS IN ALL OF EUROPE.
THIS IS HUGE 🔥
🤖 Made with AI
