Developing an open framework for AI-mediated discovery — how AI systems build trust, resolve decisions and form defaults.
London
Joined March 2012
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The next era of marketing isn’t about convincing humans to click.
It’s about convincing AI agents to choose you.
Visibility gets you considered.
Trust gets you selected.
Repeated selection makes you the default.
The battle is moving from search rankings to decision-making itself.
And most businesses haven’t realised the rules have changed yet!!
selling to AGENTS
imagine losing customers because their AI agents don't like your website
seems like now we have to convince robots to buy our stuff
as a founder, i'd rather know WHY an agent skipped my product than keep guessing
check what Scope is building
new era of marketing. same old founder pain
Who’s up for a little pre Christmas pump and dump?
The real winners of the Anthropic IPO:
Google and Amazon.
They sold Anthropic equipment and compute in exchange for stock and convertable notes so Anthropic could look more profitable than they are. They also invested $26B in cash.
They own 26% of the company.
Will be worth $530B+ at IPO.
Its a giant pump and dump scheme!
Reality will bite
Worth a read $ANT
I always respect David's opinion on IPOs, even if I don't agree with them.
"There’s 40%+ Downside If Growth Slows, Even with Higher Margins"
"There’s 90%+ Downside If Anthropic Generates the Same Profit as Meta"
Darren retweeted
The problem with using Dot com era strategy accounting practices to hide OpEx is that the disconnect from reality is so insanely obvious, it takes zero financial awareness to see the legal “fraud” hiding the truth.
Anthropics compute costs rise to $96 billion next year. 5x higher than 2026 when they got what appears to be a 75% off compute deal from $AMZN
They’re also facing a major drop in token prices.
Yes I’m a debt guru, but everyone s awe and amazement reveals the stupidity in the numbers and underlying OpEx manipulation that perfectly aligns to what was done in final months of DotCom crash.
Anthropic spent $7.2 billion for 1.4 GW of compute in 2025 (based on reports from investor presentation).
Anthropic told investors in presentation they were tracking 5 GW in 2026. They are tracking $20 billion spent.
Anthropic spent $5.14 billion / GW in 2025
Anthropic is tracking $4.0 billion / GW in 2026 spent (4x lower than industry standard of $16-$22 billion / GW)
Anthropic just signed a contract with N-Scale at $16 billion / GW in 2026, 4x higher than its reporting in its S-1.
The magic of $AMZN deal. 75% off compute.
Their true compute cost would have been closer to $80 billion in 2026 vs $20 billion.
Spot on…
1. There is no moat in AI
2. Pricing heads to the marginal cost of production
3. Intelligence becomes abundant
4. Users win
5. Investors lose
Darren retweeted
leveraged neoclouds are bad.
except the one i’m running.
-@elonmusk
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Darren retweeted
If you are wondering why semiconductors peaked in June this is the reason…the market sniffed out that incremental demand was coming from a debt fueled unprofitable speculative sector. Neo clouds.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Surely it can’t be that simple. Musk says it’s all over for Neoclouds, and he is a Neocloud, and it all goes pop?
That wasn’t what I was expecting.
Guppy level death is a great band name
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Darren retweeted
Elon Musk just told the entire world that the AI bubble has popped... buckle up.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Darren retweeted
“That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation.”
If neocloud stocks tank on Monday, I may have accidentally accelerated the guppy-level death...
Oracle may have made one of the biggest bets in AI.
They’ve tied enormous infrastructure commitments to a market where intelligence is getting cheaper, models are becoming interchangeable, and moats are under pressure.
What happens if the economics change faster than the contracts?
You can short a stock. But the real risk is being long a business model whose moat is disappearing.
The AI capex trade is the next shoe to drop.
Everyone thinks chips are safe.
Darren retweeted
Jack confirms“there is no moat”
So what does that mean for the MASSIVE paper gains buried in the margins of $MSFT $AMZN $NVDA $GOOGL etc?
Oh yeah, and:
“Several asset managers have invested an estimated $6 billion in Anthropic, led by American Funds parent Capital Group, which had $10 billion invested. Fidelity ranks second with roughly $5 billion in the company, making the fund families Anthropic’s largest mutual fund shareholders.” Morningstar
Sparta @elonmusk entered the @jack moat chat.
Without a moat, you're running up a downhill escalator.
You can execute brilliantly, innovate constantly and build faster than ever.
But if competitors can replicate what you've built at a fraction of the cost, you're running just to stay in the same place.
AI doesn't eliminate competition. It accelerates it.
The question isn't whether you can win today.
It's whether you can stop tomorrow's competitors from erasing today's advantage.